EUROPE
Eurozone: The best
is now (firmly) behind us – ING
Peak
growth is now behind us and while there are still positive drivers that make it
too soon to call the end of the expansion, growth in 2019 is likely to come out
much lower than last year. We forecast 1.4% GDP growth in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020
but the risks are skewed to the downside. In these circumstances, the
probability of an ECB rate hike is melting away
Eurozone Outlook
2019
– ABN
AMRO
Slow
growth puts ECB on ice
Leonid Bershidsky:
German Gilets Jaunes Have a Case, Too – BB
The
conflict between environmental goals and the mobility needs of the less
affluent is real, and not just in France.
Ferdinando
Giugliano: A Truly Terrible Idea for Deutsche Bank – BB
A
Commerzbank merger would make a mockery of the EU’s hopes to avoid lenders that
are “too big to fail” – and the bloc's plans for a banking union.
Leonid Bershidsky: How the EU Plans to Punish Hungary and Poland – BB
Imposing
sanctions may be easier said than done for the EU.
Europe’s Most
Important River Is Running Dry – BB
The
Rhine waterway, critical to moving coal, car parts, food and thousands of other
goods, risks becoming impassable because of climate change.
Leonid Bershidsky:
Europe Has a China Problem, Too – BB
The
German industrial lobby is proposing a rethink of trade ties based on
cooperation, not confrontation.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Marcus Ashworth: Mario Draghi, You Have a Serious Problem – BB
The
ECB needs to wake up to the danger of Europe’s slowdown becoming a recession.
There is one tool for further stimulus, though: the TLTRO.
ECB preview: Sleepwalkers or simply cool dudes? – ING
Thursday’s
ECB meeting will probably be low on action but high on controversial debates
and challenging questions * Eurozone economy between slowdown and contraction
ECB’s huge
forecasting errors undermine credibility of current forecasts – Bruegel
ECB forecasting is
a joke
– Frances
Coppola
UNITED STATES
Trump meets with
Cabinet officials to revive infrastructure push – sources – Reuters
Shutdown clouds
outlook for consumer-driven U.S. economic growth – Reuters
OTHER
Remembering Jack Bogle – Barry
Ritholz
Transcript: Jack
Bogle, Vanguard
– Barry
Ritholz
IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
WEO Update: A Weakening Global Expansion – IMF
A
Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks – IMF
IMF
Slashes Global GDP Forecast To 3 Year Low – ZH
IMF
flags trade war threat and warns of economic slowdown – FT
IMF
Sees Weakest World Growth in Three Years – BB
CHINA
China Offers a
Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say – BB
Buying
spree offer was made at Beijing talks in early January * U.S. officials said to
be skeptical, want gap closed sooner
China Watch: More
signs of stabilization – ABN
AMRO
Official
GDP growth slows further to 6.4% yoy in Q4-2018 *Mixed data for December: PMIs
point to slowdown industrial sector, while hard data show signs of stabilization
* Collapse of trade growth feeds slowdown fears, but special factors at play * We
expect Chinese economy to stabilise further as Beijing steps up piecemeal
fiscal and monetary support and the likelihood of a US-China trade deal has risen
China’s economy grows at slowest annual rate since 1990 – FT
Fourth-quarter
GDP figure slips to 6.4% as trade war hits consumer sentiment
China's 2018
growth slows to 28-year low, more stimulus seen – Reuters
Funding drought hits China’s private sector – FT
Beijing’s
policy moves have left companies that are key to economic output worried
DAVOS
Davos 2019:
Updates From the World Economic Forum – WSJ
The
theme this year is Globalization 4.0. World leaders will gather to discuss
issues ranging from climate change to trade, but without President Trump.
Cox: Davos becomes a liability in the populist era – Reuters
Orwell v Huxley:
whose dystopia are we living in today? – FT
John
Lanchester on how Brave New World and Nineteen Eighty-Four capture the age of
Facebook and Trump
REGULARS
Global
Economy Wobbles, Fed Pause Talk, Currency Crunch * Abe urged to scrap sales tax
rise as Japan’s economy struggles * Italy’s populists are under renewed
pressure as economy slows
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Big
Tech could well triumph in EU’s copyright wars: the sector could be on the
verge of snatching an improbable triumph from the jaws of defeat
Brussels Edition – BB
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Big
win for Big Tech — Is Brussels the Brexit bad guy? — Americans’ trust tanks
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
May
set to unveil Brexit Plan B
Eco Day Europe – BB
Davos
Fretting, China Slides, Vietnam's Investor Pitch * Global elite have racked up
wealth, and plenty to fret about * U.S., China chart little progress on
thorniest issue in talks
Daily Market
Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Chinese
Data and UK Brexit Start New Week
US Open – ZH
S&P
Futures Slide As Trade Pessimism Returns
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tänään markkinoiden huomio kohdistuu jälleen Brexitiin,
kun Mayn hallitus esittelee varasuunnitelmansa parlamentille | Kiinan
talouskasvu hiipui neljännellä vuosineljänneksellä | Tällä viikolla tulossa
EKP:n kokous ja euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit
Jan Hurri: Nollakorko voi olla uusi normaali – ja se on huono uutinen – IS
Eurotalouden kasvunäkymät heikkenevät nyt siihen malliin,
että EKP pitänee korkonsa nollassa vielä vuosien ajan. Se on huono eikä hyvä
uutinen, kirjoittaa erikoistoimittaja Jan Hurri.