EUROPE
Euro credit: 2019
outlook
– Pictet
Last
year was a difficult one for euro credit, with both the ICE Bank of America
Merrill Lynch (ICE BofAML) investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) indices
posting negative total returns.
Russia Outlook
2019: Muddling through – ABN
AMRO
Growth
will remain below long-term trend at 1.5% in 2019/2020 * Strong fiscal and
external positions support resilience to shocks * Inflation expected to peak at
6% in first half of 2019 * Monetary policy will remain tight and we expect one
rate cut end-2019 * Sanctions on sovereign debt and/or energy sector remain
biggest risk
German Industry Unexpectedly Records Broad-Based Slump – BB
Germany:
Give me an “r” – ING
Germany’s
Industry Shock Raises Specter of Economic Recession – BB
Fall
in German industrial output raises eurozone fears – FT
Euro-Area
Economic Sentiment Sees Worst Losing Streak in Decade – BB
UNITED STATES
Fed’s New Year
Resolution: Listen to markets – Pictet
Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at a conference on Friday to the
effect that the Fed would be ‘patient’ about further rate increases after
having delivered four rate hikes in 2018.
Monthly Executive
Briefing –
Danske
Bank
Global: What if the Fed stops QT? – Nordea
The Fed chair backtracked on the balance sheet in January, saying the Fed "wouldn’t hesitate to make a change” if the Fed concluded the balance sheet ”was part of the problem”. What would happen if the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet?
OTHER
China monthly:
Growth concern is back – Nordea
A
sharp slowdown has replaced the trade war as the biggest concern for China.
While macro data paints a grim picture, we expect increased stimulus to provide
a cushion for growth. The CNY still faces downside risks due to growth and the
trade war.
People’s Bank cuts
banks’ reserve requirements, more policy easing ahead – Pictet
The
People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a further reduction in banks’ required
reserve ratios (RRR) on Friday by 1 percentage point.
REGULARS
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
The
forlorn 49 - their limbo shows how disproportionate the reaction to irregular
migration has become
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Refugee
crisis lingers — German Twitter wars — Eyes on Romania
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Risk
sentiment up on possible 'reasonable' trade deal
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Dollar
Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday,
Five Things You
Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
US
Futures, European Stocks Jump On Trade Optimism
Italy
Set to Help Bank, U.S.-China Talks, Shutdown Woes * Bostic says Fed should
raise rates only once this year * Samsung’s massive miss highlights risks to
Korean economy
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tänään julkaistaan Suomen alustavat ulkomaankaupan
tilastot marraskuulta | USA:n palvelusektorin luottamus laski odotuksia enemmän
joulukuussa | Odotukset Fedin koronnostojen tahdin hidastumisesta lisääntyneet
Etla lisäisi työperäistä maahanmuuttoa ja paikallista sopimista – Verkkouutiset
Yleissitovuuden kaventamista kilpailijamaiden tasolle ei
ole Vesa Vihriälän mielestä syytä pitää tabuna.