EUROPE
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
A Pragmatic New European Leadership Team Could Supply Tools to Face the Next Downturn – PIIE
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
A Pragmatic New European Leadership Team Could Supply Tools to Face the Next Downturn – PIIE
Ultimately,
the EU and euro area in particular may have to invent an EU Treaty–compatible
version of Japan’s economic policies (Abenomics) to escape deflationary
stagnation in its next downturn.
The
ECB moves to keep euro bond yields down – Pictet
Since
Mario Draghi in June signalled the ECB’s readiness to embark on more easing
should the euro area economy fail to regain speed, euro sovereign bonds yields
have fallen across the board, with the 10-year Bund yield briefly moving below
-0.4% (the same level as the deposit rate) in intraday trading on July 4. We
now expect the ECB to announce a second asset-purchasing programme (“QE 2”)
later this year and to cut the deposit rate by 10 bps.
Italy
and Austria Take the Bond Market to a Very Weird Place – BB
Ultra-long
Italian debt at 2.85% is the flip-side of the same crazy coin that gave us
100-year Austrian at 1.17%. Investors are in a very weird place.
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
"Outlook
Continues To Dim" - Powell Goes Full Dove To Keep His Job – ZH
Stocks,
Bonds, & Gold Spike As Dollar Dives After Powell's Dovish Remarks – ZH
Powell
rubberstamps July rate cut – ABN
AMRO
Fed
Chair Powell began his semi-annual testimony to Congress today with a very
dovish prepared statement, seemingly aiming to quash the idea that the recent
trade war truce and last Friday’s upside payrolls surprise might derail Fed
easing
It's
Recession, Not No-flation, That Is Scaring The Fed – ZH
Jerome
Powell Just Locked in a July Rate Cut – BB
If
he had any inkling to hold steady this month, his testimony needed to shake
bond traders from their 100% certainty about easing. Instead, he only added to
their resolve.
Fed
chair cements case for cut in interest rates – FT
S&P
500 touches new record on expectations of further monetary policy easing
Warming
up for a July cut
– Nordea
The
minutes of the June FOMC meeting took a clearly dovish turn, with our sentiment
score pointing to the most dovish reading since 2009. Furthermore, Powell’s
congressional testimony indicated a 25 bp cut, in our view.
Powell
testimony suggests softly, softly approach – ING
Financial
markets have taken Jerome Powell’s testimony as a signal that the Federal
Reserve is fully on board for rate cuts. However, the statement is more nuanced
and hints at a more cautious approach from the Fed than is currently priced
OTHER
Martin
Wolf on Bretton Woods at 75: global co-operation under threat – FT
Economic
governance system established in 1944 is being undermined by protectionism and
nationalism
Why
Nasa’s next Moon mission can’t be an Apollo retread – FT
Fifty
years after Neil Armstrong’s one small step, the agency’s planners have new
priorities
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
July
Fed Cut, China Eyes Trump 2020, Mattress Stuffing * 200 data points tell Nomura
that key economies need rate cuts * Investors may be underestimating risk of
early ECB action
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
Von
der Leyen’s job interview day: The candidate will be put to the test in a
meeting with leaders of political groups
Brussels
Edition
– BB
More
Bad Signs?
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
VDL
goes public — What the Macronistas want — Remaining in Brexitland
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Fed
puts its cards on the table
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
ECB
Underestimated, Powell Testimony, Chinese Deflation * Italy’s wondrous bonds
cover up budget challenges still ahead * Macron’s plan to get French youth onto
the factory floor
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
North
American Focus: Poloz and Powell
Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Global
Markets Extend Drop As Traders Await Powell
Eco
Day US
– BB
Powell
Testimony, Canada Rate Decision, Euro-Area Gloom * Trump concern over dollar’s
strength spills onto Fed selection * U.S. soft-pedals Hong Kong criticism as
China talks resume
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Powell puhuu
kongressille, viime kokouksen pöytäkirjat julkaistaan ja markkinat odottavat
vihjeitä Fedin loppukuun kokouksesta | USA:n ja Kiinan kauppaneuvottelijat
aloittivat keskustelut uudelleen | Punta heikkeni, kun huoli maan taloudesta
kasvoi