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Monday, July 1

1st Jul - Higher again #4125


 

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EUROPE
When The ECB Restarts QE, This Is What It Will Buy ZH

What the ECB Didn’t Say About Monte Paschi’s BailoutBB
An internal ECB document puts the official account of the Italian bank’s rescue in doubt. Investors need transparency.
 
The Minor Mystery of the Euro’s Trade Effect Prime Economics

Eurozone inflation remains stable as ECB prepares fresh stimulus ING
As expected, core inflation bounced back after the weak May reading, but this does not seem to be the start of faster price growth

UNITED STATES
The Fed Typically Kills Expansions. Now It Must Save This Record Upswing BB
The central bank is on the spot as downside economic risks accumulate.

 
OTHER
Annual Economic Report BIS

  ASIA
US-China Trade
Danske Bank
As widely expected, the Xi-Trump meeting ended with a ceasefire in the trade war. The export ban on Huawei was also lifted, at least partially.

Economists Are Skeptical That Trump-Xi Truce Will Rescue Growth BB
Research notes reveal analyst skepticism of thawing after G-20 * Global trade, growth data to remain weak in 2019, they write

G20: Many bridges to cross before a US-China deal can be cutING
The new cease-fire and a resumption of negotiations between the US and China keep hopes alive that a long-running trade war can be avoided. But more is needed before we can change our expectations that another round of tariffs is coming

Could have been worse - G20 does not end in acrimony at leastING
We didn't have high expectations for the G20 meetings. What we got was realistically about as good as we thought likely. Markets seem to agree, with a modest relief rally in equities and some safe-haven selling. Other Asian currencies rallying.

G20: The US and China buying timeNordea
Trump and Xi agreed to continue the trade negotiations and no additional tariffs are expected in the coming months. The uncertainty, however, continues to prevail. The lukewarm result was widely expected in the markets prior to the meeting.

Editorial: The U.S. and China Don’t Need to Be EnemiesBB
A peaceful, productive relationship is crucial for the world.

Asia's factory activity shrinks, U.S.-China trade truce fails to brighten outlook Reuters
Asia Factory Sentiment Dealt a Blow in June as Trade War SimmersBB


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing FT

Brussels BriefingFT
Circular EU jobs summit keeps Timmermans’ hopes alive: The Dutch commissioner engages in furious one-to-one diplomacy to win over his sceptics

Brussels EditionBB
Between Osaka and a Hard Place

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Red eyes at the summit — Schulz speaks — Small step for Trump

Danske DailyDanske Bank
We are starting the week with a host of PMI manufacturing releases, which will give an indication of where the global manufacturing cycle is heading amid the uncertainty prompted by the trade stand-off between the US and China. Markets will also keep an eye on the aftermath of the trade ceasefire over the weekend.

Eco Day EuropeBB
PMIs Spoil Truce Party, China Pain, Savior-Villain Fed * Economists stare down darker global growth even amid ‘truce’ * Asian factory sentiment broadly turns down for another month

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Trade Optimism Meet Reality of Disappointing PMI

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

US OpenZH
Global Stocks Soar On Trade Truce, As Other Assets Get Cold Feet

Eco Day USBB
Savior-Villain Fed, Global Factory Slump, Trade Truce * Economists see darker global growth even with ceasefire * Clarida says Fed will ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain growth


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Presidentit Trump ja Xi pistivät kauppasodan tauolle ja neuvottelut jatkuvat, vaikeita asioita sovittavana | Kiinan tehdasteollisuuden toiminta supistui kesäkuussa | Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden ISM-ostopäällikköindeksi kesäkuulta

Varallisuusvero takaisin?Akateeminen talousblogi

Rahapolitiikan edellytykset muuttumassa? Peter Nyberg