EUROPE
Tariff
Shocks: The Role of Value Chains in Europe – IMF
BANKS
EU
watchdog warns of €135bn bank capital shortfall – FT
EBA
says new global rules will raise minimum requirements 22.4%
Deutsche
Bank faces restructuring costs of up to €5bn – FT
Plan
to shrink investment bank set to push lender to net loss for this year
ITALY
EU Spares Italy From Debt Censure as Budget Update Convinces – BB
EU’s
executive body doesn’t take any disciplinary action * Populist government sees
2019 deficit in line with EU rules
Italy
Faces a 40-Billion Euro Reckoning – BB
Investors
are celebrating the possible EU deficit truce. But it will be hard for the
populists to climb down from their promises on the 2020 budget.
The
EU Commission chose not to ask for an EDP against Italy, for the time being – ING
The
2019 budget re-assessment and the related decree were deemed enough by the EU
Commission not to pull the trigger now. However, the ghost of an EDP against
Italy could be re-awakened in the autumn should the 2020 budget draft point to
deliberate deviations from the Stability Pact path
The
Excessive Deficit Procedure Was Not Supposed to Be the "Naughty
Corner"
– PIIE
If
properly designed, an EDP could have been the place where a better policy mix
was achieved, combining a softer adjustment path and policies to improve
potential growth.
VON DER LEYEN
Von
der Leyen’s elevation baffles Germany – FT
European
Commission’s next boss has suffered negative headlines as defence minister
Von
der Leyen tapped to run European Commission – Politico
German
defense minister, at head of slate of candidates for top EU jobs, faces
resistance in Parliament.
The
inconvenient truth about Ursula von der Leyen – Politico
The
woman nominated for Commission chief has plenty of critics back home.
EU
Top Jobs Go to People Who Didn’t Campaign – BB
Their
challenge will be to lead Europe, and stand up to big member states.
Europe
reacts to the Council’s nominations for EU leadership – Open
Europe
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Bond
investors cheer Lagarde nomination for ECB top job – FT
IMF
chief joins a club of central bankers that is becoming more dovish as economic
concerns mount
Lagarde
set to inherit lingering Draghi influence at ECB – FT
IMF
head lacks economics training but her political skills could prove useful
ECB
needs a rocket scientist, not a rock star –
Politico
In
proposing Christine Lagarde for top job, EU leaders choose politics over
economics.
El-Erian:
Lagarde Is an Inspired and Unusual Choice to Lead the ECB – BB
It’s
become almost an impossible job, but she is used to those.
The
World of Monetary Policy, According to Christine Lagarde – BB
Incoming
ECB president may have to revive a stumbling economy * Public comments suggest
IMF chief supports Draghi’s stimulus
A
Lagarde-Run ECB Might Mean a Very Different Kind of Presidency – BB
IMF
chief will be first politician to take charge of ECB * Role might draw more on
salesmanship than policy creativity
New
ECB President: Christine Lagarde – Nordea
Not
much is known about the next ECB President Christine Lagarde’s views on
monetary policy. That means a lot of attention will concentrate on her future
comments and volatility in the market could increase slightly.
No
technocrat, Lagarde brings listening, diplomacy to ECB table – Reuters
UNITED STATES
What
a good US jobs report will mean for markets – ING
Employment
growth in the States is softening, but this is more to do with a lack of
workers with the right skills to fill vacancies rather than any meaningful
downturn in demand. Given the positive implications for wages, we believe the
risks are skewed towards more modest Fed policy loosening than the market
expects.
U.S.
trade, services industry data point to slowing economy – Reuters
U.S.
Employment Is Looking Cooler Ahead of Friday’s June Jobs Data – BB
ADP
figure trails forecasts, ISM employment gauge weakens * Decline in jobless
claims shows labor market remains tight
U.S.
factory orders fall for second straight month – Reuters
U.S.
Services Gauge Drops to Lowest Since 2017 – BB
OTHER
Monthly
Executive Briefing
– Danske
Bank
The
global macroeconomic situation continues to show signs of weakness * Central banks in
the euro area and the US have lately signalled a readiness to mitigate the economic
weakness * At the G20 meeting in Tokyo late June, the US and China struck a
ceasefire deal after the latest escalation in early May
China
Leading Indicators
– Danske
Bank
Short-term
weakness, but no hard landing
REGULARS
Five
Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB
Eco
Day Asia
– BB
Lagarde
Supremacy, Depth of Fed Cut, Truce Too Late * President Trump names two
economists to serve on Fed board * Khashoggi murder should prevent G-20 in
Riyadh, UN expert says
Five
Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB
EU
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
FirstFT
Daily Briefing
– FT
Brussels
Briefing
– FT
All
the winners and losers from the EU’s top job reshuffle: Who won and who lost in
the EU’s great power game?
Brussels
Edition
– BB
Brussels
Playbook
– Politico
Ursula
von der Leyen’s path to power — How the EU chorizo is made — Meet your new leaders
Danske
Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eco
Day Europe
– BB
Lagarde's
New Gig, Fed Nominees, Trade-War Tallies * IMF chief prepares to transition to
another multi-economy job * Vietnam becomes latest victim in U.S. tariff
battles
Daily
Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Yields
Extend Decline
Five
Things to Start Your Day US – BB
US
Open Rundown
– RANsquawk
US
Open
– ZH
Global
Bond Yields Tumble As Risk Rally Returns; S&P Inches Away From 3,000
Eco
Day US
– BB
Fed
Picks, Make-or-Break Jobs Data, Lagarde's New Job * Trump two central bank
picks likely to support easier policy * This week’s U.S. jobs report is key for
Fed’s rate strategy
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EU:n johtajat ehdottivat Christine Lagardea EKP:n johtoon
ja Ursula von der Leyenia komission johtoon | Riksbank kokoustaa tänään, laskee
korkopolkuaan | Italian hallitus leikkasi valtionbudjetin alijäämää