16th Jul - Quiet #4138

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EUROPE
Investor Outlook for German Economy Falls Amid Industry Woes – BB

Expectations index declines to -24.5; estimate was -22 * ZEW sees no end to issues battering German manufacturing

Eurozone exports increase does not make up for April decline – ING

Despite all of the obvious woes surrounding the trade outlook, the trend for eurozone exports of goods remains positive. After a weak April, the overall 2Q reading will likely still be weak

Nominee for the EU’s Top Job Is Weak - That’s Her Strength – BB

The German’s confirmation as European Commission president would boost national leaders’ power.

EU-wide stress tests for banks – ECA

Unparalleled amount of information on banks provided but greater coordination and focus on risks needed

Stress Test a Sham, European Court of Auditors Warns – Wolf Street

Just when European banks need to inspire confidence more than ever.

UNITED STATES

Pathways to a recession – ABN AMRO

Yield curve is likely signalling the heightened, late cycle vulnerability to a recession. Recessions are typically caused by a combination of capacity constraints, and a financial market or policy shock. While the US economy is approaching full capacity, it is not quite there yet. Productivity is dampening cost pressures. In the absence of risks crystalising, and with the Fed easing policy, the expansion likely has further to run – albeit at a slower pace

OTHER

Central Bankers Are Sick of Rescuing the World Economy Alone – BB

Monetary policy around the world near the limits of its power * Group of Seven meetings take place in France this week

Global Debt Monitor: Déjà vu –lower rates, higher debt – IIF

At over $246 trillion, global debt is now just $2 trillion shy of the all-time high of Q1 2018.

Global Debt Hits 320% Of GDP, As Developing Debt Hits All Time High – ZH

The paradox of global thrift – voxeu

Fiscal and current account surpluses make sense from a national perspective. Prudential fiscal and financial policies lead to an increase in national savings and current account surpluses of booming countries. This column uses a model of the global economy to argue, however, that the world may become stuck in a global liquidity trap as a result. This paradox of global thrift may lead to a fall in global output and welfare.

Big Read: Does investing in emerging markets still make sense? – FT

Apart from China and India, there is little sign that developing economies are converging with the developed world

REGULARS

Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Briefing – FT

Decision day on the European Commission president: Ursula von der Leyen faces her crucial confirmation vote in parliament

Brussels Edition – BB

Presidential Cliffhanger

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Selmayr’s head on a platter — VDL goes all in — Romanian reshuffle

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

EU Commission President candidate facing knife-edge vote

Eco Day Europe – BB

Central Banks Need Help, EU Awaits Tariffs, China Slows * Greece’s new government set to tap markets with bond issue * Goldman sees U.S. growth being underestimated by a full point

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Sterling Weakness Punctures Subdued Session

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

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