2nd Jul - Lagarde is the new ECB head #4126

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EUROPE

Italy Wants to Roll the Dice on the Euro All Over Again – BB

Brussels is acutely aware of Italy’s new-found spunk and how it can use its leverage on EU jobs.

How Merkel’s plan for EU top jobs fell apart – Politico

Ex-European Parliament President Martin Schulz hatched scheme that triggered conservative rebellion.

EU Leaders Tap Germany’s Von Der Leyen as Commission Chief – BB

European leaders met over three days to decide on top jobs * Von der Leyen will be first German to hold top job since 1967

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Lagarde tapped to head ECB as EU reaches deal on top jobs – FT

Von der Leyen nominated to become first female Commission chief despite parliament resistance

Lagarde to Succeed Draghi as ECB Chief as Economy Weakens – BB

Decision to nominate IMF chief taken by EU leaders after talks * Lagarde first woman to run ECB, lacks central bank background

EU leaders choose France's Lagarde for ECB after marathon summit – Reuters

A Lagarde-Run ECB Might Mean a Very Different Kind of Presidency – BB

IMF chief will be first politician to take charge of ECB * Role might draw more on salesmanship than policy creativity

Lagarde at the ECB? – Scott Sumner

The Politicians Take Charge at the ECB – BB

Christine Lagarde’s nomination will stir concern about the central bank’s immunity from political influence. She will need to prove her independence.

ECB Policy Makers See No Rush for July Interest-Rate Cut – BB

Central bank could use next meeting to signal later stimulus * Governing Council will get new economic forecasts in September

Europe: Breakthrough with many surprises – ING

With Christine Lagarde, the ECB will get another excellent communicator. What kind of monetary policies Lagarde really stands for, no one can currently tell. In our view, a continuation of a pragmatic monetary policy stance as well as a confirmation of “whatever-it-takes” looks likely.

Monetary Policy and Below-Target Inflation – ECB

Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of Finland conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU, Helsinki, 1 July 2019

Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system – ECB

Happy Days for Europe's Giant Bond Sellers – BB

Euro corporate bond issuance has had a great year, helped by U.S. sellers. It will get even better if the ECB returns to the fray, as Goldman predicts.

UNITED STATES

What’s up with inflation? – ABN AMRO

Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market. Prolonged subdued inflation is leading to inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Concern over this is one of the main reasons we expect the Fed to cut rates, regardless of the outcome of trade negotiations.

OTHER

After Osaka, Equities Suffer From Contradictions – BB

A successful trade war for the U.S. will mean fewer rate cuts and a stronger dollar, which would create many of the same problems that tariffs can cause.

Energy Monitor – OPEC delivers as expected – ABN AMRO

Agreement oil production OPEC+ extended by another nine months. Higher ambition regarding reducing global oil supplies. Extra charter signed with partners to secure long-term cooperation between OPEC and its allies

OPEC Fail: Oil Prices Plunge Despite Production-Cut Deal – ZH

OPEC+ cuts extended – ING

This has certainly been one of the less exciting OPEC+ meetings, with President Putin spoiling the surprise on the side-lines of the G-20 summit. The commitment of OPEC+ to bring the market back to balance by extending cuts should be viewed as constructive, and we continue to hold the view of higher prices from here for the remainder of the year

What's New in the IMF's COFER Report? – Marc Chandler

Hedge Funds Are Tracking Private Jets to Find the Next Megadeal – BB

A book list for beach reading – BlackRock

A Tour of the Global Economy - (in one chart pack) – Danske Bank

REGULARS

Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB

Chaos in Hong Kong * New EU Tariffs Proposed * RBA Cut Likely * In the Red * Asia’s Banks Losing Share

Eco Day Asia – BB

Consecutive RBA Cuts, Manufacturing Slump, New Tariffs * Terms of Trade: How history may score Trump’s tactics in Osaka * ECB could get first female chief amid French suggestions to EU+

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB

Trade Fronts * OPEC Cuts * EU Jobs * Protests

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Briefing – FT

The French president claims ‘personal ambitions’ and ‘too many hidden agendas’ had undermined the talks at the European Council table

Brussels Edition – BB

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Summit Day 3 — Plan B is Plan A — Greens’ Keller to run for Parliament chief

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

EU job talks, two Fed speakers, Asian PMIs

Eco Day Europe – BB

European Trade-War Front, Doves Reign, Trade Data Tank * Trump turns his ire against Europe in Airbus-Boeing debacle * RBA spreads dovishness with unusual back-to-back rate cuts

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

US Open – ZH

Trade Truce Euphoria Fizzles As Markets Hit A Wall, Futures Slide

Eco Day US – BB

Fed Rate Watch, Trade-War Pain, Fresh Tariffs, ECB Wait * How deep a first rate cut is Fed’s key debate as July 31 nears * It takes more than handshake to fix global trade: tracker