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Monday, January 21

21st Jan - US holiday, data pessimism



EUROPE
Eurozone: The best is now (firmly) behind us ING
Peak growth is now behind us and while there are still positive drivers that make it too soon to call the end of the expansion, growth in 2019 is likely to come out much lower than last year. We forecast 1.4% GDP growth in 2019 and 1.3% in 2020 but the risks are skewed to the downside. In these circumstances, the probability of an ECB rate hike is melting away

Eurozone Outlook 2019ABN AMRO
Slow growth puts ECB on ice

Leonid Bershidsky: German Gilets Jaunes Have a Case, Too BB
The conflict between environmental goals and the mobility needs of the less affluent is real, and not just in France.

Ferdinando Giugliano: A Truly Terrible Idea for Deutsche BankBB
A Commerzbank merger would make a mockery of the EU’s hopes to avoid lenders that are “too big to fail” – and the bloc's plans for a banking union.

Leonid Bershidsky: How the EU Plans to Punish Hungary and Poland BB
Imposing sanctions may be easier said than done for the EU.

Europe’s Most Important River Is Running DryBB
The Rhine waterway, critical to moving coal, car parts, food and thousands of other goods, risks becoming impassable because of climate change.

Leonid Bershidsky: Europe Has a China Problem, Too BB
The German industrial lobby is proposing a rethink of trade ties based on cooperation, not confrontation.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Marcus Ashworth: Mario Draghi, You Have a Serious Problem
BB
The ECB needs to wake up to the danger of Europe’s slowdown becoming a recession. There is one tool for further stimulus, though: the TLTRO.

ECB preview: Sleepwalkers or simply cool dudes?ING
Thursday’s ECB meeting will probably be low on action but high on controversial debates and challenging questions * Eurozone economy between slowdown and contraction

ECB’s huge forecasting errors undermine credibility of current forecastsBruegel
ECB forecasting is a jokeFrances Coppola


UNITED STATES
Trump meets with Cabinet officials to revive infrastructure push – sourcesReuters

Shutdown clouds outlook for consumer-driven U.S. economic growthReuters


OTHER
Remembering Jack BogleBarry Ritholz
Transcript: Jack Bogle, VanguardBarry Ritholz

  IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
WEO Update: A Weakening Global Expansion – IMF
A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks – IMF
IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast To 3 Year Low – ZH
IMF flags trade war threat and warns of economic slowdown – FT
IMF Sees Weakest World Growth in Three Years – BB

  CHINA
China Offers a Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say BB
Buying spree offer was made at Beijing talks in early January * U.S. officials said to be skeptical, want gap closed sooner

China Watch: More signs of stabilizationABN AMRO
Official GDP growth slows further to 6.4% yoy in Q4-2018 *Mixed data for December: PMIs point to slowdown industrial sector, while hard data show signs of stabilization * Collapse of trade growth feeds slowdown fears, but special factors at play * We expect Chinese economy to stabilise further as Beijing steps up piecemeal fiscal and monetary support and the likelihood of a US-China trade deal has risen

China’s economy grows at slowest annual rate since 1990 FT
Fourth-quarter GDP figure slips to 6.4% as trade war hits consumer sentiment

China's 2018 growth slows to 28-year low, more stimulus seen Reuters

Funding drought hits China’s private sector FT
Beijing’s policy moves have left companies that are key to economic output worried

  DAVOS
Davos 2019: Updates From the World Economic ForumWSJ
The theme this year is Globalization 4.0. World leaders will gather to discuss issues ranging from climate change to trade, but without President Trump.

Cox: Davos becomes a liability in the populist eraReuters

Orwell v Huxley: whose dystopia are we living in today? FT
John Lanchester on how Brave New World and Nineteen Eighty-Four capture the age of Facebook and Trump


REGULARS
Five Things to Start Your Day Asia BB

Eco Day AsiaBB
Global Economy Wobbles, Fed Pause Talk, Currency Crunch * Abe urged to scrap sales tax rise as Japan’s economy struggles * Italy’s populists are under renewed pressure as economy slows

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Big Tech could well triumph in EU’s copyright wars: the sector could be on the verge of snatching an improbable triumph from the jaws of defeat

Brussels Edition BB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Big win for Big Tech — Is Brussels the Brexit bad guy? — Americans’ trust tanks

Danske DailyDanske Bank
May set to unveil Brexit Plan B

Eco Day EuropeBB
Davos Fretting, China Slides, Vietnam's Investor Pitch * Global elite have racked up wealth, and plenty to fret about * U.S., China chart little progress on thorniest issue in talks

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Chinese Data and UK Brexit Start New Week

US Open ZH
S&P Futures Slide As Trade Pessimism Returns


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
Tänään markkinoiden huomio kohdistuu jälleen Brexitiin, kun Mayn hallitus esittelee varasuunnitelmansa parlamentille | Kiinan talouskasvu hiipui neljännellä vuosineljänneksellä | Tällä viikolla tulossa EKP:n kokous ja euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit

Jan Hurri: Nollakorko voi olla uusi normaali – ja se on huono uutinenIS
Eurotalouden kasvunäkymät heikkenevät nyt siihen malliin, että EKP pitänee korkonsa nollassa vielä vuosien ajan. Se on huono eikä hyvä uutinen, kirjoittaa erikoistoimittaja Jan Hurri.

Thursday, January 17