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Sunday, December 30

30th Dec - Review of 2012

The ultimate linkfest to reviews of the ending year ( I will add links to this later)

30th Dec - Weekender

Due to lack of material, I am combining all the usual Weekender-posts to one.

Friday, December 28

28th Dec - Abnormal Update

The blog is still in a holiday mood, but some interesting picks:

Thursday, December 27

27th Dec - Abnormal Update

My blog is still in holiday mood and returns to normalcy after the weekend. But just some recent articles to keep up with the world.

In addition to the fiscal cliff excitement, the big move to weaker Japanese yen and the clash between IMF and EU on the bailout of Cyprus seem to be the most important themes. I will do a "2012, 2013"-special during the weekend, just like I did last year (2011 Special and 2012 Special).

Sunday, December 23

23rd Dec - Weekender: Off-Topics

Season's Greetings, I am taking some time off next week and will probably not post before next weekend.

23rd Dec - Weekender: Trading & Markets

23rd Dec - Weekender: Economics

Saturday, December 22

22nd Dec - Weekender: The World

Some deeper thoughts on Europe, USA and Asia for the holidays

22nd Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Week in review - and next one previewed. Last week's edition here.

Friday, December 21

Thursday, December 20

20th Dec - US Close

From Nordea's weekly.

20th Dec - US Open

20th Dec - EU Open

Japan’s central bank moved to inflation targeting and announced QE, as was more or less expected – but fiscal cliff negotiations in US are putting pressure on the markets. Stock indices still have bit more downside left – even in a bullish scenario. USDJPY actually down after the Japanese announcement, so again a case of buy the rumor, sell the news.

Tuesday, December 18

18th Dec - US Close

18th Dec - My Interview

Forexinfo recently interviewed yours truly.

18th Dec - US Open: Cliff Solution

Talk that the fiscal cliff talks are nearing some sort of solution...

18th Dec - EU Open

Monday, December 17

17th Dec - US Close: Crisis creeping?

17th Dec - US Open

17th Dec - EU Open: After JP, EU

Now that the Japanese elections are done and the QE-party won, it seems all the major central banks except ECB are on extremely easy. Is ECB playing the role of hard to get on purpose - to push national politicians to the right direction, as in Spain - or are the central bank's hands tied? Who do you call when you want to call Europe, which one is in charge, Germany or ECB? I believe this is the main question that has to be answered in the first quarter. 

Saturday, December 15

15th Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic & Finnish

15th Dec - Weekender: Economics & Markets

This weekend's economics-section is huge: both UK and US are moving towards changing their monetary policies, while the fiscal cliff, general uncertainty over the recovery and Europe's continuing trouble caused a flood of articles.

15th Dec - Weekender: Europe

15th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here. Check back later for updates to this post.

Friday, December 14

Thursday, December 13

13th Dec - US Close: B-union

Greece was promised the funds, banking union's single supervisor-part agreed (maybe), more on the Fed's change of tactics

13th Dec - US Open

Banking union's "single supervisor" agreed, but the details are sketchy - the goals of the rest of this week's summitteering were downsized from the earlier eurocrats' plans.

13th Dec - EU Open: Morning After

For more on the Fed's change, see my previous post. UK seems to be moving to the same direction, given the yesterday's comments by the next governor for the Bank of England. I think there is more to the Fed than currently meets the eye - but it will take time before markets understand this. Sell for couple of weeks.

12th Dec - US Close: Evans to Rule

Looks like both the US and UK are changing their central banks’ course. US  unemployment 6.5% or below, as long as inflation stays below 2.5% (that's news - old ceiling target was 2%)

It seems like "the printings shall continue until the employment improves"

Quote of the Day:
If I was able to ask Ben Bernanke a question at today’s press conference, I would ask this: What in your models make you believe that GDP growth can accelerate to a range of 2.3-3% in 2013, 3-3.5% in 2014 and 3-3.7% in 2015 from 1.7-1.8% in 2012 but somehow forecast that PCE inflation will be no greater than 2% in each of those years vs 1.6-1.7% in 2012 in light of the massive expansion in your balance sheet? – The Big Picture

Wednesday, December 12

Tuesday, December 11

11th Dec - US Close: Fiscal Cliff & FOMC

11th Dec - Credit Guest: Synchronicity

A nice long creamy cake of credit talk from MoreLiver's dear friend Macronomics. This time, he drops the charts on the floor, stands on the table and says how things really look - the picture is not pretty, but it is comforting: it is an old song, even though it is not familiar to the contemporary audience.

11th Dec - US Open

11th Dec - EU Open

Sunday, December 9

9th Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic, Finnish, Views

For the lazy readers, may I suggest combing through the "Weekly Support"-post - it has the weekly previews to get you sorted through the next week. Everyone else, enjoy these not finance-related article links and the again quite worrisome Finnish-language articles: internal devaluation & federalization is the name of the game. It is going to be highly entertaining 2013-2015 if this shit goes through.

I'm not sure if I have time for a Views-post, so just quickies: ending week's uptick in Spanish and Italian bonds, ECB's non-decision, Monti's loss of power of power, followed by a resignation announcement. Bad European macros. Coming stormy talks on the federalization of the European Union, UK's threat to leave EU... I think the eurocrisis is now back on, after a brief pause. While the French and German stock markets have recently broken to new highs, I believe they will reverse, and we will see a continuation of the recent range. Meanwhile, as the Europe's periphery starts to deteriorate again from the yield perspective, rhetoric will become much harder, and finding a solution becomes again a nightmare.

I am not sure if we will see a repeat of the last December's show, when the ECB was forced to step in with the surprise LTRO annoucements - my current feeling is that things will slowly deteriorate and ECB will not pull the rabbit from the hat. This is mainly because the ECB does not have a rabbit anymore, but secondly also because they want to keep Spain under market pressure. The logic seems to be that Spain will not apply for a bailout before it is forced to do so, so pressure and force it will be. The policies and negotiations will not start in earnest before the core countries get severely hit. Thus, I expect gradually worsening picture, with temporary blimps of hope from some monthly indicators or something. Probably around Feb-March things look really dark. But the stock market will start anticipating this very soon. 

Next week's FOMC meeting and the European summits are the main events. I expect all real numbers to be bad, but probably not surprisingly so.

9th Dec - Weekender: Econ & Markets

This weekend’s edition has stuff on shadow banking, IMF’s change of attitude on capital controls, TARGET2, while the trading & markets-related links are a mixed bag.

Saturday, December 8

9th Dec - Weekender: The World

This weekend’s edition of “The World” is heavy on Europe: Italy is about to have a change of leadership, some good ones on TARGET2, Federalization of Europe-articles, Britain’s possible exit. Articles on China concentrate on the leadership change and what this might mean for the future.

8th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Last week review, next previewed. Previous ‘Weekly Support’ here.

Friday, December 7

7th Dec - US Close: Payroll Monster

Regular links, European horror macro and the most exhaustive list of payroll commentary, ever!

7th Dec - US Open

Payroll time!

7th Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best article links from my past seven day’s posts – enjoy!

7th Dec - EU Open: Payday

US Employment report and Dec consumer confidence in today's calendar. For ECB afterthoughts and payroll previews, see my previous post.

6th Dec - US Close: ECB done, federal Europe coming

Friday's US payrolls reviewed, worrying federal developments from the eurocrats, ECB sees only black and will not turn on the lights - instead looks like it will have a match with Madrid instead. 

Thursday, December 6

6th Dec - US Open: Independence Day

 Oh, almost forgot - ECB left the rates unchanged. Enjoy these two different versions of the classic story.

6th Dec - EU Open

5th Dec - US Close

Wednesday, December 5

5th Dec - US Open

5th Dec - EU Open

Europe 'surprised' by bad service PMI's, but the horror was pretty much expected after the manufacturing PMI's deterioration. Eyes now on Draghi on Thu. Again, no interest rate cuts expected, but the words will be scrutinized like never before.

Tuesday, December 4

4th Dec - US Close: Merry MF Global Christmas

The stock market rally has lost steam, ECB's non-event on Thu, FX boring and in ranges, but EUR surprisingly resilient. European summit schedules look like more 'roadmaps' to a federal Europe will be signed. No good economic news in Europe, but US has looked relatively ok recently. My gut feeling is that the Eurocrisis is about to light up again. Merry Christmas everyone.

4th Dec - US Open

4th Dec - EU Open: Greek gift to hedge funds

Monday, December 3

3rd Dec - US Close

3rd Dec - US Open

Quote of the Day: "We’re not against some business being done in London, but the bulk of the business should be under our control. That’s the consequence of the choice by the UK to remain outside the euro area." – Christian Noyer, the very French head of central bank.

3rd Dec - EU Open: Federalization

Saturday, December 1

1st Dec - Weekender: Econ, Market, O-T, Fin

Last 'Weekender' post is here: Economics, Markets, Off-Topic and Finnish.  - I will make some changes to my regular post format on Sunday to make things a bit lighter for myself. Hope you understand, or if not, make yourself heard.

1st Dec - Weekender: The World

Latest articles on Europe, US and Asia, + some longer background reading I've come across during the ending week.

1st Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support

Last week reviewed, next previewed. Previous ‘Weekly Support’ here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Best of The Week

The best links from the ending week's posts. Previous BoW here.