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Sunday, December 30

30th Dec - Review of 2012



The ultimate linkfest to reviews of the ending year ( I will add links to this later)

30th Dec - Weekender



Due to lack of material, I am combining all the usual Weekender-posts to one.

Friday, December 28

28th Dec - Abnormal Update



The blog is still in a holiday mood, but some interesting picks:

Thursday, December 27

27th Dec - Abnormal Update

My blog is still in holiday mood and returns to normalcy after the weekend. But just some recent articles to keep up with the world.

In addition to the fiscal cliff excitement, the big move to weaker Japanese yen and the clash between IMF and EU on the bailout of Cyprus seem to be the most important themes. I will do a "2012, 2013"-special during the weekend, just like I did last year (2011 Special and 2012 Special).

Sunday, December 23

23rd Dec - Weekender: Off-Topics



Season's Greetings, I am taking some time off next week and will probably not post before next weekend.

23rd Dec - Weekender: Trading & Markets



23rd Dec - Weekender: Economics



Saturday, December 22

22nd Dec - Weekender: The World



Some deeper thoughts on Europe, USA and Asia for the holidays

22nd Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Week in review - and next one previewed. Last week's edition here.

Friday, December 21

Thursday, December 20

20th Dec - US Close

From Nordea's weekly.


20th Dec - US Open

20th Dec - EU Open



Japan’s central bank moved to inflation targeting and announced QE, as was more or less expected – but fiscal cliff negotiations in US are putting pressure on the markets. Stock indices still have bit more downside left – even in a bullish scenario. USDJPY actually down after the Japanese announcement, so again a case of buy the rumor, sell the news.

Tuesday, December 18

18th Dec - US Close



18th Dec - My Interview

Forexinfo recently interviewed yours truly.

18th Dec - US Open: Cliff Solution



Talk that the fiscal cliff talks are nearing some sort of solution...

18th Dec - EU Open

Monday, December 17

17th Dec - US Close: Crisis creeping?



17th Dec - US Open



17th Dec - EU Open: After JP, EU


Now that the Japanese elections are done and the QE-party won, it seems all the major central banks except ECB are on extremely easy. Is ECB playing the role of hard to get on purpose - to push national politicians to the right direction, as in Spain - or are the central bank's hands tied? Who do you call when you want to call Europe, which one is in charge, Germany or ECB? I believe this is the main question that has to be answered in the first quarter. 

Saturday, December 15

15th Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic & Finnish



15th Dec - Weekender: Economics & Markets


This weekend's economics-section is huge: both UK and US are moving towards changing their monetary policies, while the fiscal cliff, general uncertainty over the recovery and Europe's continuing trouble caused a flood of articles.

15th Dec - Weekender: Europe



15th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support


The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here. Check back later for updates to this post.

Friday, December 14

Thursday, December 13

13th Dec - US Close: B-union



Greece was promised the funds, banking union's single supervisor-part agreed (maybe), more on the Fed's change of tactics

13th Dec - US Open



Banking union's "single supervisor" agreed, but the details are sketchy - the goals of the rest of this week's summitteering were downsized from the earlier eurocrats' plans.

13th Dec - EU Open: Morning After



For more on the Fed's change, see my previous post. UK seems to be moving to the same direction, given the yesterday's comments by the next governor for the Bank of England. I think there is more to the Fed than currently meets the eye - but it will take time before markets understand this. Sell for couple of weeks.

12th Dec - US Close: Evans to Rule



Looks like both the US and UK are changing their central banks’ course. US  unemployment 6.5% or below, as long as inflation stays below 2.5% (that's news - old ceiling target was 2%)

It seems like "the printings shall continue until the employment improves"

Quote of the Day:
If I was able to ask Ben Bernanke a question at today’s press conference, I would ask this: What in your models make you believe that GDP growth can accelerate to a range of 2.3-3% in 2013, 3-3.5% in 2014 and 3-3.7% in 2015 from 1.7-1.8% in 2012 but somehow forecast that PCE inflation will be no greater than 2% in each of those years vs 1.6-1.7% in 2012 in light of the massive expansion in your balance sheet? – The Big Picture

Wednesday, December 12

Tuesday, December 11

11th Dec - US Close: Fiscal Cliff & FOMC


11th Dec - Credit Guest: Synchronicity

A nice long creamy cake of credit talk from MoreLiver's dear friend Macronomics. This time, he drops the charts on the floor, stands on the table and says how things really look - the picture is not pretty, but it is comforting: it is an old song, even though it is not familiar to the contemporary audience.

11th Dec - US Open




11th Dec - EU Open



Sunday, December 9

9th Dec - Weekender: Off-Topic, Finnish, Views



For the lazy readers, may I suggest combing through the "Weekly Support"-post - it has the weekly previews to get you sorted through the next week. Everyone else, enjoy these not finance-related article links and the again quite worrisome Finnish-language articles: internal devaluation & federalization is the name of the game. It is going to be highly entertaining 2013-2015 if this shit goes through.

I'm not sure if I have time for a Views-post, so just quickies: ending week's uptick in Spanish and Italian bonds, ECB's non-decision, Monti's loss of power of power, followed by a resignation announcement. Bad European macros. Coming stormy talks on the federalization of the European Union, UK's threat to leave EU... I think the eurocrisis is now back on, after a brief pause. While the French and German stock markets have recently broken to new highs, I believe they will reverse, and we will see a continuation of the recent range. Meanwhile, as the Europe's periphery starts to deteriorate again from the yield perspective, rhetoric will become much harder, and finding a solution becomes again a nightmare.

I am not sure if we will see a repeat of the last December's show, when the ECB was forced to step in with the surprise LTRO annoucements - my current feeling is that things will slowly deteriorate and ECB will not pull the rabbit from the hat. This is mainly because the ECB does not have a rabbit anymore, but secondly also because they want to keep Spain under market pressure. The logic seems to be that Spain will not apply for a bailout before it is forced to do so, so pressure and force it will be. The policies and negotiations will not start in earnest before the core countries get severely hit. Thus, I expect gradually worsening picture, with temporary blimps of hope from some monthly indicators or something. Probably around Feb-March things look really dark. But the stock market will start anticipating this very soon. 

Next week's FOMC meeting and the European summits are the main events. I expect all real numbers to be bad, but probably not surprisingly so.

9th Dec - Weekender: Econ & Markets



This weekend’s edition has stuff on shadow banking, IMF’s change of attitude on capital controls, TARGET2, while the trading & markets-related links are a mixed bag.

Saturday, December 8

9th Dec - Weekender: The World



This weekend’s edition of “The World” is heavy on Europe: Italy is about to have a change of leadership, some good ones on TARGET2, Federalization of Europe-articles, Britain’s possible exit. Articles on China concentrate on the leadership change and what this might mean for the future.

8th Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support



Last week review, next previewed. Previous ‘Weekly Support’ here.

Friday, December 7

7th Dec - US Close: Payroll Monster


Regular links, European horror macro and the most exhaustive list of payroll commentary, ever!

7th Dec - US Open



Payroll time!

7th Dec - Weekender: Best of the Week



The best article links from my past seven day’s posts – enjoy!

7th Dec - EU Open: Payday



US Employment report and Dec consumer confidence in today's calendar. For ECB afterthoughts and payroll previews, see my previous post.

6th Dec - US Close: ECB done, federal Europe coming


Friday's US payrolls reviewed, worrying federal developments from the eurocrats, ECB sees only black and will not turn on the lights - instead looks like it will have a match with Madrid instead. 

Thursday, December 6

6th Dec - US Open: Independence Day



 Oh, almost forgot - ECB left the rates unchanged. Enjoy these two different versions of the classic story.

6th Dec - EU Open



5th Dec - US Close



Wednesday, December 5

5th Dec - US Open



5th Dec - EU Open

Europe 'surprised' by bad service PMI's, but the horror was pretty much expected after the manufacturing PMI's deterioration. Eyes now on Draghi on Thu. Again, no interest rate cuts expected, but the words will be scrutinized like never before.

Tuesday, December 4

4th Dec - US Close: Merry MF Global Christmas



The stock market rally has lost steam, ECB's non-event on Thu, FX boring and in ranges, but EUR surprisingly resilient. European summit schedules look like more 'roadmaps' to a federal Europe will be signed. No good economic news in Europe, but US has looked relatively ok recently. My gut feeling is that the Eurocrisis is about to light up again. Merry Christmas everyone.

4th Dec - US Open




4th Dec - EU Open: Greek gift to hedge funds



Monday, December 3

3rd Dec - US Close



3rd Dec - US Open



Quote of the Day: "We’re not against some business being done in London, but the bulk of the business should be under our control. That’s the consequence of the choice by the UK to remain outside the euro area." – Christian Noyer, the very French head of central bank.

3rd Dec - EU Open: Federalization


Saturday, December 1

1st Dec - Weekender: Econ, Market, O-T, Fin



Last 'Weekender' post is here: Economics, Markets, Off-Topic and Finnish.  - I will make some changes to my regular post format on Sunday to make things a bit lighter for myself. Hope you understand, or if not, make yourself heard.

1st Dec - Weekender: The World


Latest articles on Europe, US and Asia, + some longer background reading I've come across during the ending week.

1st Dec - Weekender: Weekly Support


Last week reviewed, next previewed. Previous ‘Weekly Support’ here.

1st Dec - Weekender: Best of The Week

The best links from the ending week's posts. Previous BoW here.

Thursday, November 29

29th Nov - US Open: Eerie Ireland



Ireland studies the Greek bailout for ideas on how to exit its own bailout-hell. ECB is happy as it does not need to publish details of how Goldman Sachs helped Greece to hide its debt in order to get the euro membership. Happy times.

29th Nov - EU Open



Wednesday, November 28

28th Nov - US Close: Fed Fades, Finnish Fun



The German parliament votes on the latest stealth haircut of the Greek debt on Friday. More on Greece in my earlier posts. And big shout out to Mr. Hurri!

28th Nov - Congrats, Jan Hurri


28th Nov - US Open: More Greece



Notice the news that German parliament votes on the Greek package on Thu - and this might be postponed. The Greek event risk apparently never goes away.

28th Nov - EU Open



Tuesday, November 27

27th Nov - US Close: SuloRientoLiukas-measures



Katainen Kreikka-päätöksestä: Näitä asioita ei kannata millimetripaperilla mittailla – YLE

yksi Öllisentti = 1 miljardi euroa, jakaantuu 10 Käteismilliin = á 100 miljoonaa euroa. – Sulo Riento Liukas

27th Nov - US Open: More Greece, OECD's Outlook



More on Greece in my morning post. OECD's latest outlook is published - check it out, probably has something that will move the markets later. One thing to add: Germany's parliament votes on Greece on Thursday - so we have a new risk event.

27th Nov - EU Open: Beware 'Crats Bearing Greek Gifts



Monday, November 26

Sunday, November 25

Saturday, November 24

24th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to review the past week and get ahead with the next one (previous Weekly Support here).

Friday, November 23

24th Nov - Weekender: Best of The Week



The best picks from my posts since last Friday

23rd Nov - US Open: IFO up, nervous FX

German IFO came out well above expectations – and rising. No good news from the EU’s budget talks. Plenty of action reported in FX option markets – someone is buying large amounts of at-the-money options – makes sense with all the event risks and the current very low volatility.

23rd Nov - EU Open: IFO ahead, broken budget

 EURUSD keeps ticking higher, EU budget talks gridlocked, German IFO index today's main event.

Thursday, November 22

22nd Nov - Fun (in Finnish)


22nd Nov - US "open": € PMI sucks, Greece promised





Happy holidays, no US close update today. Here's links to Europe's and China's latest PMI numbers and EU budget talks. Greece postponed to Monday.

22nd Nov: EURUSD Views


22nd Nov - EU Open: Budget Talks commence



EU budget talks commence today – expect nasty comments from participants. US Thanksgiving keeping things quiet – stops might be cheap on low-volume, algo-driven day. China's PMI came out positive.

Wednesday, November 21

21st Nov - US Close: Greece Open, Budget Ahead



 Good evening! Usual Euro-related horror stories, plus plenty of links in Finnish.
JPY has been very weak after the talk on possible inflation targeting by the BoJ...

21st Nov - US Open



21st Nov - EU Open: No Greek Deal


Tuesday, November 20

20th Nov - US Close



Source: FT alphaville
Bernanke talked - nothing interesting, except the 'surprise' that FED cannot do fiscal policy, so the cliff must be solved. Some sort of peaceful solution in Middle-East looks probable.

20th Nov - US Open



20th Nov - EU Open



Sorry about the late post - had to finally get some sleep :)

Monday, November 19

19th Nov - US Close: Rally

19th Nov - US Open


Spain bad loans reached EUR 182.2bln in September according to the Bank of Spain 

Italian Industrial Orders SA (Sep) M/M -4.0% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 0.7%)

19th Nov - EU Open: Short week with heavy events

Lots of stuff to kick off the US holiday-shortened week. Check my most excellent and recently updated 'Weekly Support' for the weeklies. Short version: US holiday on Thu, Fri probably a dead day as well. Important European macro on Thu&Fri, EURUSD again trying the 1.28 resistance level. Friday's US close seemed a bit more positive, so a possibility of a minor rally. BoJ meeting ahead - probably on pause ahead of elections.


19th Nov - Credit Guest: The Omnipotence Paradox

Another great one from Macronomics.

Sunday, November 18

18th Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & Finnish



I'll try to post a Views-post on Sunday.

18th Nov - Weekender - Economics & Trading

Before my usual linkcollection, I would like to point out the following gems that you might have missed: 


Bernanke's College Lecture Series:The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 (youtube videos, approximately 60-70 mins each)
 
George Soros: Open Society, the Financial Crisis, and the Way AheadOpen Society (links to youtube videos, excellent, including Q&A clips)
 

18th Nov - Weekender: EU, US, Asia

Europe is experiencing all the problems at the same time - real economy tanking, world not looking good, PIIGS suffering, political will weaning. The only thing that is not bad is the market pressure. Market pressure is kept away by Draghi's promise. In US, until recently relatively good data has now started to surprise to the downside - corporate earnings and real economy are looking cold, while fiscal cliff and uncertainty over monetary policy is troubling the markets. China got themselves new leaders, and it looks like it will be more of the same - playing tough on corruption but not reforming the economy. In other words - it seems all the bad news are already out in the world - a perfect opportunity to buy risk assets. But one thing I don't get - what happens when market pressure on Europe is back on? Thus, only tactical longs, boys and girls.

Friday, November 16

16th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support

The ending week in review, and the next one previewed. MoreLiver is also here now.

16th Nov - US Close



Yes, MoreLiver is there now.
Just the regulars now - next up the usual Weekender posts. And check out my new gig:

16th Nov - US Open


16th Nov - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best from the ending week's posts.

16th Nov - EU Open



See my last night's long post for plenty of high-quality reads. For additional commentary, check my new morning piece. Tension in Middle East, US budget talks, China's new leadership. EURUSD trying to drop after rejecting 1.28 level. No convincing moves in equity indices as of yet - potential double bottom developing in SPX, but too early to say. Europe looks just as doomed as for the past couple of years. Same old, same old.

Thursday, November 15

15th Nov - US Close

Both EURUSD (testing bear channel resistance @ 1.28) and SPX near 'critical' levels. Europe is considered to be in a recession and the 2013 does not look any easier. Sweden is also worsening, but at least they have monetary policy left: EURSEK near resistance levels currently. Friday comes with triple-witching expiration in US, and next week the US will have a long weekend. I believe it will be an interesting day to end the week.

15th Nov - US Open



15th Nov - EU Open


The SPX has now fallen to my target levels - I'll update my views in the next post. JPY weakness is an interesting development, given the current risk-off sentiment. See last evening's post - plenty of good ones there.

Wednesday, November 14

14th Nov - US Close





Huge post - and what a day. Markets tumbled, Bank of England was softer than expected, terrible numbers again from Europe - though within expectations.

What do people who are not good enough to become sell-side analysts do? That's right - they work for IMF, ECB and EU Commission. See the pic.

14th Nov - US Open



Now this is a sight for sore eyes.

14th Nov - EU Open



Monday, November 12

12th Nov - US Close: Greece and American oil

Plenty of stuff, for a US holiday. Japan started the week with even worse than expected GDP numbers. This was followed by an utterly useless Eurogroup meeting, where Greece was discussed. The early version of the Troika's report was leaked and is available and commented on FT's alphaville blog, links below.


International Energy Agency came out with a report and projected that US will overtake Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production by 2020. That's some heavy news and has a lot of implications financially and strategically.

Reformed Broker came out with a nice idea that 2013 will be a play between fiscal issues and housing. If the housing markets take off, the economy could be saved, but also the budget cuts and tax hikes could take the economy down. It could be a question which one 'shoots first'

12th Nov - US "Open"

US markets open, though banks are closed for the Veteran's Day. Eurogroup meeting will be deemed a success, if they can kick the can over the next Friday's t-bill expiration. That's how great things are at the moment.

12th Nov - EU Open

US holiday today. To really get into this week, try the 'Weekly Support' below.

Sunday, November 11

11th Nov - Credit Guest: Froth on the Daydream

Another ‘big one’ from Macronomics.

11th Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & Finnish

I'll write a separate Views-post later today, after doing some chores. Happy Father's Day to my Finnish audience. As a gift, see the links to the documentary, get some coffee & cognac and enjoy the ride.

11th Nov - Weekender: Markets


Positive economic surprise index running high in US, while earnings are rolling over badly and threat scenarios abound. Everyone complaining about the high risk appetite, record-low yields, record-high issuance of high-yield debt (junk bonds). To me this all sounds like the bad news have become almost fully priced in - the SPX has not much room left below - soon some positive news will make risk markets jump back up again. ECB statement? Merkel coming out? Or most likely, that Greece is 'solved', and the US politicians are eager to avoid the fiscal cliff as they learned their lesson from the debt ceiling debacle. I'll update my chart views on the next Weekender-post.

Saturday, November 10

10th Nov - Weekender: EU, US, Asia



The week's main event was supposedly the election in US. In reality, the main event was the decision to postpone decisions on Greece, lousy macro numbers from Europe, and the falling stock markets. Remember how we were told that any Grexit was kindly asked to be delayed until Obama got re-elected? He is now elected. Greece has voted 'yes' on austerity measures and will do so again on Monday. Troika's report has been read. What are they waiting for, and why they decided to delay the decision until 26-Nov? I think I'm onto something here - I'll try to figure this out.

10th Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support



Here are the links to help you review the ending week – and prepare for the next one. You might also want to see the previous ‘Weekly Support’. The missing links will be updated when the articles are published. The embedded youtube video is the 1989 video of "Just A Techno Groove" by a band called "Dow Jones". Must....palm....face....

Friday, November 9

9th Nov - US Close

Just the regulars now, get ready for my usual Weekender-posts.

9th Nov - US Open



9th Nov - Weekender: Best of The Week


Picks from my ending week's posts (previous Best of The Week here).

9th Nov - EU Open

Check my previous post for some views & good links.

Thursday, November 8

8th Nov - US Close

ECB did nothing, as was expected. In Europe the biggest news was that the decision on Greece is postponed to 26-Nov. Another round of terrible numbers from Europe, with record unemployment in crisis countries. EURUSD keeping in a narrow range and hardly reacting to negative headlines - so looks like plenty of negativity is already priced into the pair. SPX falling again like a rock, and looking at a weekly chart we are getting near levels where I would like to be a buyer. Around 1350? Everyone seems to be talking about that level. That would imply we never get there. If we see 1360, that's it, then. Done. Mine at 1360. I'll sort out my EURUSD view later.

8th Nov - US Open

BoE stood still - ECB soon.

8th Nov - EU Open: CB Day

Greece voted 'Jawohl' on austerity, next vote on Sunday. Today the main events are BoE and ECB meetings - Draghi has been getting more vocal - if you can call stating the obvious as being vocal. China pretends electing new leadership. Some sort of event risk could be seen coming from there - e.g. isolationism announcements or backtracking on reform.

Wednesday, November 7

7th Nov - US Close: Support in Short Supply


Very risk-off day today, both stocks and euro sold off heavily. Basically, bad European numbers coupled with Draghi's warning that Germany is starting to get its share of the crisis were the main drivers. So why was this so bad? Perhaps because Merkel and other key decision makers are still pulling their feet. By being forced to state that aloud, I interpret that behind the curtains there is no solid plan and commitment to it. Draghi tried to put pressure on Merkel. This means that polite private explanation of the issues did not work. And now, as everyone is getting publically smeared by everyone else, chances of finding a politically acceptable mutual solution are growing thin.

7th Nov - US Open: € Well Offered



 Euro selling off, for several reasons: 

  • we had a break to the downside from a technical range
  • Greece votes on austerity measures (risk of losing further bailouts)
  • Spain's budget forecasts are based on growth forecasts that nobody, including the European Commission, believes anymore
  • Bad growth numbers overall -> debt defaults approaching 

7th Nov - EU Open

Now that the US elections are over, people will refocus on the European crisis (Greece foremost, but secondly Spain) and then then US fiscal cliff.

Tuesday, November 6

6th Nov - US Close



6th Nov - US Open

Election day, real event risks ahead, (Greece votes on Wed on Troika-required savings, Thursday ECB's and BoE's meetings), so I'm expecting less dramatic markets today.

6th Nov - EU Open

Posting early and updating as stuff comes online. Notice my previous election special.

6th Nov - Special: US Elections

Some article links I've featured previously and new ones as well. Updates at the bottom of the post.

Monday, November 5

5th Nov - US Close: Election Eve


The commentators seem to be saying that the stock market correction is not yet over - while the elections and possible risk-positive news could cause short-term spasms of optimism, the earnings, fiscal cliff and Europe loom large.

5th Nov - US Open: Get Down

EURUSD breaking lower from the range. SPX still sitting near the range's bottom.

5th Nov - EU Open: Heavy Calendar

Just wow... Tue, US elections, Thu ECB and BoE. Open questions: Greece, Spain, Eurogroup meeting, ECB’s collateral policies and divergence between economic data of Europe and US. Most pressing issue now is the ECB’s reaction to the news presented below: the collateral provided by Spain has not been marked down appropriately. For your market needs, I suggest taking a look at the Weekly Support below.

Sunday, November 4

4th Nov - Views



Quick views: Event risks ahead, European situation deteriorating again, so I'm very careful now. Every time the euro crisis is 'on', we can expect surprise statements from several people, often contradicting each other. Quick swings, technical trading, keeping size light as volatility will be higher than in the past weeks.

4th Nov - Credit Guest: The Year of The Empty Hand

Another 'stop the presses' post by Martin of Macronomics.

Saturday, November 3

3rd Nov - Weekender: Off-Topics & Finnish

Wow, this was a long post, but plenty of enjoyable articles. For my Finnish audience, I'm especially happy about the several links to 80's-90's scene at the bottom of the post. I will post my market views on Sunday evening. The video clip is to celebrate some good news I got. Sorry if you don't get the joke.

3rd Nov - Weekender: Markets & Trading



3rd Nov - Weekender: Economics & Banking



3rd Nov - Weekender: Europe, US, Asia



Some longer background articles that I've come across in the past week.

Friday, November 2

2nd Nov - Weekender: Weekly Support



Last week's most excellent review and the week ahead under the microscope. See my earlier posts for even more link madness.

2nd Nov - US Close



To end the week... usual Weekender-posts coming up next, beginning with the Weekly Support.

2nd Nov - Weekender: Best of The Week

The best links from the ending week's posts. Previous 'Best'.

2nd Nov - Special: Payrolls


2nd Nov - US Open: Payrolls ahead

Payrolls coming up (updated today's EU Open post)

2nd Nov - EU Open: Waiting for Payrolls



It’s payrolls today.  

Thursday, November 1

1st Nov - US Close

Greece is in deep, deep trouble - or rather, the creditors are in trouble and Greece will soon be just fine. Which shall it be, more 'extend and pretend' or mini-meltdown? In US, it will be about the elections, and result rests on tomorrow's employment numbers. Bad numbers: Romney wins. Ok to good numbers: Obama wins.

1st Nov - US Open



1st Nov - EU Open


Wednesday, October 31

31st Oct - US Close



Bad European data: bank lending in eurozone just does not fly. Trilater commission to meet in Helsinki next weekend. Trichet leads, so expect stability, greatness and overall #winning.

31st Oct - "Sandy Spread"


Insurance vs. Home builder ETF's.

31st Oct - US Open



31st Oct - EU Open



Tuesday, October 30

30th Oct - US "close"

Looks like the markets will be open in US on Wednesday. EURUSD turned up before properly meeting the trading range's bottom, but looks like it's on its way to the top end of the range.  

30th Oct - US "Open": JPY and EUR strong

EURUSD moving up from near the multiweek range's bottom. JPY 'surprised' everyone and after BoK printed, the yen strengthened. US markets still closed because the 'lady'.

30th Oct - EU Open



Reporting seems slow because of the ‘Sandy’ in US. I'll update the missing ones if and when they are posted.

Monday, October 29

29th Oct - US "Close": Hold On



Stay sharp. Stay relaxed. There's something going on somewhere, all the time. In New York, the storm will pass. Others will come. We will stay. 

29th Oct - US "Open"



News from Europe getting bad again - where to find the 30bn for Greece, Spain's economy continues getting worse beyond expectations. US markets largely closed due to "bad weather". EURUSD getting near the bottom of its multiweek range.

29th Oct - EU Open



Saturday, October 27

27th Oct - Credit Guest: When causation implies correlation

Another great credit post from MoreLiver's favorite blogger, Macronomics. Diverging France and Germany, trouble at the core, Spain. Pain, deflation ahead.

27th Oct - Vaalit - äänestä!

Se todellinen markkinavoima on se hiljainen raha, joka yrittää nähdä kakanpuhumisen läpi. Sekös poliitikkoja harmittaa, kun suunnitelmien ja ajatuksien ei pidä kelvata pelkästään äänestäjille, vaan alati maailman tilaa seuraaville lompakon päällä istuville.

Äänestäjät äänestävät yleensä koko elämänsä ajan sitä, mitä isi ja äiti jo kotona opettivat. Poliitikot tekevät teatteria näille ihmisille. Markkinavoima on se kollektiivinen n. parinsadan tuhannen ihmisen joukko, joka yrittää nähdä teatterin läpi, mitä oikeasti tapahtuu, ja mitä siitä seuraa.
Markkinamekanismin hyvä puoli on, että rahat tuppaavat kasaantumaan niille, jotka näkevät parhaiten. Sen takia se on äänestäjiä parempi poliisi. – Juhani Huopainen


Ohessa on kaksi ukkoa, toinen Turusta, toinen Espoosta. MoreLiver suosittelee molempia ja äänestää itse Helsingissä, joten jäävään itseni. Vantaalla Pauli Vahtera on hyvä - jopa lukee meikäläisen juttuja.

Henri Myllyniemi
Henri Myllyniemen tekstejä olen lukenut toista vuotta, ja kaveri on sähköasentajan koulutuksellaan tullut sen luokan talouskommentaattoriksi, etten epäile hetkeäkään hänen kykyjä, kunnianhimoa, ja arvomaailmaa hoitaa kunnallisvaltuutetun tehtävä menestyksekkäästi Turussa. Rauhallinen kuin viilipytty ja jatkaa argumentointia siinä vaiheessa kun vastapuoli on jo alentunut inttämään. Henri on Perussuomalaisten listalla ehdolla Turussa.








Jukka Kilpi
Jukka Kilpi on vanha työkaverini ja hyvä ystäväni, jonka mittava ja monipuolinen historia sekä elämänkokemus tekevät minuun aina vaikutuksen. Aina kun joku hyvä tyyppi on tarvinnut neuvoja yritysrahoitukseen liittyen, en ole edes miettinyt kenenkään muun suosittelemista. Halusit sitten keskustella kunnallistason korruptiosta, filosofiasta tai warranttien markkinatakaajista, Kilpi on mies paikallaan. Koska olemme vanhoja ystäviä, kehtaan laittaa tähän oman leikillisen ehdotukseni vaalisloganiksi: Jukka ei ole kakka! Jukka on sitoutumattomana Perussuomalaisten listalla ehdolla Espoossa.




 

27th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to review the past week and get ahead with the next one (previous Weekly Support here).

Friday, October 26

26th Oct - US Close: High GDP due to Defense



GDP came out, but most of bigger than expected growth came from aircraft purchases (volatile) and military spending (ahead of fiscal cliff, under budget review and the military's fiscal year ends in September), so the number was not as good as the headline would suggest. In the stock market language, the GDP growth was "low-quality". For acute reading needs, check my earlier posts, esp. the Best of The Week - I'll be back tomorrow with the usual Weekender posts, beginning with another Weekly Support. Have a good weekend - and if you're in Finland, remember to vote as your heart tells you.

26th Oct - US Open: Greek on table



US GDP ahead. Happy weekends, check back for my weekender posts.

26th Oct - Weekender: Best of The Week



The best articles from my posts of the ending week.

26th Oct - EU Open

My previous post had plenty of article links and my own thoughts. ‘Best of’ coming soon.

Thursday, October 25

25th Oct - US Close: Yen and Yawn



Is this Europe's "believe me"? Source: The Big Pictur
Apple posted earnings that were clearly below expectations. Right after taking a hit with Google, hedge funds are now hit on both two of their favorite holdings. I guess there might be the usual talk of redemptions, risk aversion and liquidity tightening by prime brokers as vol is up & price down. All of these could be seen causing selling pressure. Participants are trading the QQQ while the Apple's trading is closed - just as they did with Google. All this proxy trading and so on is good for - you guessed it - creating selling pressure.

25th Oct - US Open: Mixed Europe

UK’s GDP better than expected, recession over – but no reason to be too cheerful. ECB released latest lending figures, and they were low – money supply figures came in below expectations. The Greek bailout III is already almost certain, with leaked details on FT. Eyes now on the US durable goods orders, followed by the official agreement on Greece and US GDP tomorrow. 


I'm expecting rising trouble with the European banking union plans: FT points out how unhappy Germany is. EURUSD and SPX are bouncing between clear technical levels, with an inclination to test the downside.

25th Oct - EU Open

I updated my views in last night's post, so just the regular links for now.

Wednesday, October 24

24th Oct - US Close: Fed Slept, My views

After the Fed’s non-event, eyes turn to the  EU-discussions on Friday, where Greece’s continued bailout payments are probably confirmed. Tomorrow UK’s GDP and US durable goods orders, Friday sees several less important European numbers and the main event, US GDP. Oh yes, click the charts below for larger versions.

24th Oct - US Open: Bad Europe, Fed ahead

The European economic data (PMI and Germany’s IFO) were terrible and markets reacted accordingly. Draghi’s comments are still ahead, and later the Fed’s FOMC conclusion. See my previous posts’ US sections for additional commentary – don’t expect much from the Fed, though.

24th Oct - EU Open: China positive, Draghi ahead

China's PMI came out better than expected (see link section). Wednesday will be a busy day, as we get the first glimpses of the Q4 economic activity. Given the worries over the dismal Q3 earnings and the related recent drops in major indices, and the fact that both the FED and the ECB are already committed policy-wise, today’s numbers will be watched closely. Incidentally, FOMC will conclude today, but no press conference is scheduled and important policy changes are not expected before December’s meeting. In Europe, Draghi will be speaking in Germany’s Bundestag on the ECB’s OMT program, followed by a scheduled press conference.

Tuesday, October 23

23rd Oct - US Close: Pre-Open Dive



Markets were very weak after the bad Q3 earnings, signaling that the QE-effect is spent, and it’s back to fundamentals for now. Most of the reaction probably came from the bad Spanish news, and the yields on Spanish government debt increased somewhat. Incidentally, given the worries over the earnings, tomorrow we’ll see Q4 macro numbers from Europe and US, and these could set the tone for the rest of the week. 

Fed is probably a non-event on Wednesday – but do notice that Draghi is visiting the lion’s den – he’s speaking to the Germany’s parliament, Bundestag, on the merits of the ECB’s OMT program. He will hold a press conference after the debate, and the market could use a word or two now. Perhaps he will provide that? Elsewhere, Canada's central bank surprised everyone and hinted that the end of easy monetary policy is going to end some day. Why? Are they worried about the house prices, or do they know something? Are they trying to do some "Chuck Norris"-monetary policy - creating growth by building up the inflation expectations?

23rd Oct - US Open: "Sell-off"



EURUSD and SPX selling off on "low volume". Perhaps the Spanish lousy GDP estimates from the central bank, perhaps the growing pessimism on US earnings outlook or simply the realization that Europe still has not solved its crisis. In my view, the markets are still within the acceptable range for a range scenario. It is common for the markets to make marginal new lows or highs just to tease all the stop orders, but you people probably already knew that, right? 

23rd Oct - Credit Guest: Chadburn, on full ahead?

Another long piece of credit-goodiness from Macronomics

23rd Oct - EU Open


Looks like another test of the support areas in EURUSD and SPX is happening. Tactical longs, baby, tactical longs.

22nd Oct - US Close: Ramp!

So, the stock market deciced to rally on the last minutes. I think it is safe to say now that the bottom of the daily range of the S&P 500 has been rejected, and a visit to the range's top is in progress.

Monday, October 22

22nd Oct - US Open: Bottom-fishing

Markets tried to move up, but failed for now. We might see some sort of bottom formation during the early part of this week, and perhaps then the markets decide whether the important support levels are taken out.

22nd Oct - EU Open: Bounce from Bottom (?)

Long posts during the weekend. You probably missed a lot:

Sunday, October 21

21st Oct - Weekender: Views, Off-Topics, Finnish



Last post of the week, with my market views, followed by some interesting off-topic articles and some in Finnish.

21st Oct - Weekender: Regulation & Economics


This week’s edition has sections on Regulation/Risk, Markets, Economics, Nobel prizes and Citigroup. The just resigned CEO of the bank made a cool one billion dollars from the bank.  Your tax dollars at work. For fuck’s sake… EDIT: Calendar updated.

21st Oct - Weekender: Trading & Markets


This week’s edition has sections on United States, Markets, Portfolio/Quant, Trading, High-Frequency/Algo, Hedge Funds and Other. EDIT: Calendar updated.

Saturday, October 20

20th Oct - Weekender: Europe


The European summit turned out to be a dud, even given the very low expectations. Dedicated sections on both the summit and European banking union design.

20th Oct - Weekender: Weekly Support


Last week in review – next one previewed! For entertainment, see my special on the '87 crash.

Friday, October 19

Special: 25th Anniversary of The Crash of '87

You still remember this? I joined the game in 1991, and experienced this as an outsider.

19th Oct - US Close



Stock markets selling off nicely, making another swing towards the daily range's bottom - but EURUSD hanging in there - perhaps joining the "fun" later? Anyway, getting ready to long any decent intraday setup will be the order of the day for Monday.

19th Oct - US Open: '87 Crash turns 25



Disappointment on the EU summit, technical resistance levels and general anxiety over the 25th birthday of the stock market crash of '87 could turn the session to negative territory. (EDIT: Calendar updated)

19th Oct - Weekender: Best of The Week


This week's main events were: EU summit agreeing on the banking union, Spain still playing time, better than expected data from China, US presidential election uncertainty increasing. A very important, but currently less discussed topic is the possibility of the central banks to write off the QE-acquired sovereign debts. As debt monetization has a bad ring to it, the discussion will be held in the background for political reasons.

19th Oct - EU Open: Banking union scheduled


First day of the EU summitteering confirmed the schedule for the common supervisor part of the banking union. This is a prerequisite for bailing out the Spanish banks, but it will be a long way to that result, and there are plenty of parties ready to change their opinion later. Markets nervous after Google's blunder.

Thursday, October 18

18th Oct - US Close: Googod...


If there is a way to fail, we will find it. Google's outsourced paperwork did not work that well - but neither did their earnings. In Europe, plenty of stuff on the presummit statements - I'm not expecting much, and it looks like markets are preparing to a good old-fashioned "buy the summit, sell the news".

18th Oct - US Open: European Games Begin


Some really good ones on the EU summit.

18th Oct - View Update


18th Oct - EU Open: China another positive


Chinese data came out, and on surface they were good. Summit time in Europe. Updated views later - meanwhile, after a pause of couple of days, I posted a very, very nice post last night - check it out.

Wednesday, October 17

17th Oct - US Close



Back from blogging holidays! Plenty of stuff going on - Spanish bailout waiting game, summit and more time for Greece. Someone asked for updated views on EURUSD, after my view from last Sunday. Here it was. It seems currently all the issues appear to be solved. It will not be long before we see the cracks appear, so I will update views and comment on Thursday. I guess that tactical shorts or at least an opportunity to get long in EUR or SPX will soon become available.

17th Oct - US Open



17th Oct - EU Open



16th Oct - US Close


16th Oct - US Open


16th Oct - EU Open


15th Oct - US Close


15th Oct - US Open


Monday, October 15

On Holiday

I'm taking a holiday from blogging. Family matters.

15th Oct - EU Open: Bounce from range's bottom



Plenty of material to open up the week. Both SPX and EURUSD are keeping the ranges and the Chinese positive news helped to reject the lows of the range for now. If you had a life during the weekend, take some time to review what I posted during the weekend.

Sunday, October 14

14th Oct - Weekender: Off-Topic, Finnish & Views

The final post of the weekend! First some market views (pics are clickable), followed by some Off-Topic articles that I've come across during the ending week. And finally, some article links in Finnish.

14th Oct - Weekender: Markets & Economics


This week the main themes are the need for banking reform – limiting the scale and scope of banks, and the resistance to, and perhaps futility of such efforts. The IMF’s recent economic outlook pointed the underestimation of fiscal multipliers. This is just a fancy way of stating that making budget cuts tends to lower growth and thus the previous “cult of austerity” was wrong.