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Thursday, December 25

Wednesday, December 24

Saturday, December 20

20th Dec - W/E: Linkfest



20th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Saturday, December 13

13th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Saturday, December 6

6th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

5th Dec - More on ECB, strong US jobs data



Monday, December 1

Saturday, November 29

29th Nov - W/E: Linkfest



29th Nov - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, November 22

23rd Nov - W/E: Linkfest




23rd Nov - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Tuesday, November 18

Monday, November 17

Tuesday, November 11

Sunday, November 9

9th Nov - W/E: Off-topic & Finnish




9th Nov - W/E: Economics



9th Nov - W/E: World & Markets



9th Nov - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Wednesday, November 5

5th Nov - ECB ahead, my bet

I challenged the Nordea's head strategist:



@JanVonGerich three months, Feb-5 2015, yield diff now 1.53, I pay if 1.8 touched, you pay if 1.26 touched. Ok? pic.twitter.com/Ucv1BlHX5r




Sunday, November 2

2nd Nov - Random Charts


2nd Nov - W/E: Linkfest


The world, economics, markets, off-topic and Finnish-language stuff for your weekend.

Saturday, November 1

1st Nov - Credit Guest: Pascal's Wager


Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics:

1st Nov - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Wednesday, October 29

29th Oct - Fed ends QE3


After all, the job of the market is to thieve and steal as much money as possible, from as many participants as possible, in as many occasions as possible. 

29th Oct - Special: Fed preview


Saturday, October 25

25th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Sunday, October 19

19th Oct - Bonds



19th Oct - W/E: Linkfest



19th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, October 17

Wednesday, October 15

15th Oct - Nasty risk-off moves



Thought of the day: I've noticed it is not wise to underestimate the resiliency of European stupidness. In Finland, being critical toward the euro currency is a luxury that only few can afford, as it is a career-killer. Only few economics professors dare to say anything negative about it. I really wonder how Europe turned this way. Perhaps it was a dream, that no-one wants to give up, even if it has to be turned into a nightmare.

15th Oct - DAX Chart



15th Oct - Credit Guest: Actus Tragicus


Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics.

Tuesday, October 14

Sunday, October 12

12th Oct - W/E: Linkfest



12th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

10th Oct - Weak oil, softer Fed, German Europe



Monday, October 6

6th Oct - Bears take control after lousy data





#Dombrovskis said (kudos to Open Europe)
The next Commission will be committed to bringing € agreements into EU framework, means treaty change

If EU states demanded a mechanism for country to leave € COM would provide tech support. Refuses to say personal view

Pointed out earlier flaws in the EMU structure, yet when questioned on it he rejected euro as cause of crisis

Euro has been a huge success despite crisis, even countries outside the euro had crises so I think euro is not the problem

Points out that his country went through a deep crisis without the euro - (does not mention his currency was pegged to euro)

Sunday, October 5

5th Oct - W/E: Random Charts


Some random charts for fun:

Saturday, October 4

4th Oct - W/E: Linkfest



4th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

4th Oct - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the best picks from my ending week’s posts. Previous “best of” here.

Thursday, October 2

2nd Oct - ECB presented no surprises



2nd Oct - ECB Preview

A collection of recent ECB-preview and related articles. Consensus does not expect "QE", but sees more aggressive ABS-implementation than several euro members would like to have.

1st Oct - Bear day, ECB tomorrow



Saturday, September 27

27th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

27th Sep - W/E: Charts



Finland's official worries about unsustainable fiscal spending sound weird when looking at the bond yields. There is another agenda: pushing through internal devaluation, adhering to the EU's growth- and stability pact etc.

Plenty of downside left in the German stock index - at least to the lower end of the trading range.

US positive surprise index has turned down from high levels (expect negative surprises in the near future), while Euro zone negative surprises are largely behind us now.

During the past two expansions, only the better-off minority has seen an increase in their income - and the trend remains clear.


European purchasing manager indices did not show any growth ahead

The euro's weakness after the ECB's threats and plans of further monetary policy easing have largely been against the USD. Against AUD, JPY etc, the net change is zero.

Greece's stock index looks technically bad, but from a bit lower levels could provide a nice quick swing trade higher.

27th Sep - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the best picks from my ending week’s posts. Bottom line & summary: Ukrainian crisis not going anywhere, growth outlook in Europe remains terrible, ECB's QE doubted.

Sunday, September 21

21st Sep - W/E: Linkfest



21st Sep - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, September 13

14th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, September 6

6th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

6th Sep - W/E: Best of the Week



The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts. Last week’s edition here

Tuesday, September 2

Saturday, August 30

31st Aug - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

31st Aug - W/E: Best of the Week



The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts. Last week’s edition here

European data weakened, even more than was expected, while US data improved - also even more than was expected. After ECB's Draghi gave THE speech at Jackson Hole a week ago, eyes are now firmly on the ECB's next steps. The central bank will probably sit and wait to see how the TLTRO is picked up in early September and do more preparations to get the ABS-program up and running.

Germany sees opposed to more unconventional monetary tricks - so that's it, then. Until things get so bad that even the Germans drop their pretense.

Voices against austerity in Italy and France, so France's government remixed and Merkel's new toyboy is Spanish. The lesson is that unless you drive the agenda of Germany, you will not get top jobs in the EU and you are labeled as liberal, anti-European and whatever. 

Equity markets at all-time-high in US, and even Germany bounced nicely, but toward the end of the week Ukraine soured the moods.

Friday, August 29

29th Aug - Doubts about ECB rising



Quote of the day: Despite decent M1 growth, broader monetary aggregates in the EU have been very weak. As I’ve mentioned before, this is likely a result of the impaired banking system – something that the AQR (along with forced recapitalization programs) will hopefully fix. I think this is a problem that the ECB recognizes, and a reason why the TLRTO’s specifically target bank lending, as well as coinciding with the AQR. IMO, this is also a reason the ECB is reluctant to pursue QE outright. There are many views on how QE affects the economy, but one of the clearest effects is the growth in base money… that really isn’t the problem at this juncture. – Global Macro Trading

Wednesday, August 27

27th Aug - Hollande kisses Merkel, yields hit new lows



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter


EUROPE
Optimism? In the Eurozone? Forget itTradingFloor
It may be the long European summer but in reality this is the perfect time for the Eurozone to send a few ferrets down the many holes in the system and see what startled rabbits pop up. They're likely to be very sickly.

Sharp decline in intra-EU trade over the past 4 yearsBruegel
Divergence between the Euro Area and the European Union as a whole is almost non-existent

Where European Banks are LendingMarc to Market
Lending at their strongest pace since 2008, but not to European counterparts, to Asia. 

Italy must cut growth forecast, economy minister tells CorriereBB
Italy must cut its output growth forecast, its economy minister told a newspaper, adding that economic weakness was a European problem that the region's governments needed to tackle together.

Europe: Stagnation, Default Or DevaluationEvergreen Gavekal

Austerity hits growth in FinlandDanske Bank

  BONDS
How Low Can Euro-Zone Yields Go?WSJ
With yields already at rock bottom levels, how much good could central bank buying of sovereign debt possibly do to the wider euro-zone economy? Maybe not much. But it shouldn’t be written off completely.

The Greatest Depression? German Yields Now Negative Through 2017ZH

10-year Spain and Germany to record lowsBB

  FRANCE
Hollande takes a hard line against anyone questioning his subservienceKrugman / NYT

What France Needs From EuropeBB
Yes, in the fullness of time, supply-side reform is indispensable. For now, though, monetary and fiscal accommodation should be Hollande's most urgent priorities.

Hollande Doubles Down to Impress EuropePIIE
Facing record low approval ratings at home and skeptical European partners in Berlin, Frankfurt, and Brussels, the French president had little alternative but to double down on his recent political shift right toward a more mainstream European center-left social democracy for the French Socialists. Hollande is hoping that his commitment to austerity and reforms at a time when Europe is turning to a more activist fiscal policy earns him some appreciation from Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB).

  UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Ukraine crisis updateDanske Bank

Markets groan as Ukraine unable to bridge gap with RussiaTradingFloor
Nadia Kazakova: Both Ukraine and Russia need a deal brokered for economic reasons * Russia is pushing Ukraine to recognise the separatists as a legitimate party * Ukraine preparing to tough it out, but faces harsh winter

Finland Upgrades NATO Ties After Condemning Russian TacticsBB

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB easing - will it work? No. 3: Carry trades and 'hot potato' effectDanske Bank
Still possible to do carry trades, but less attractive than earlier * The first three months of negative rates: signs of the ‘hot potato’

Can Mario Draghi save the euro again?WaPo
Draghi only had to say "whatever it takes" to end Europe's financial crisis. But Draghi will actually have to do whatever it takes to end Europe's economic one. That's what he's trying to do now, but the eurocrats might not let him. They have their rules, after all.

BMO makes the case for ECB asset purchasesFT

ECB's Draghi has been 'overinterpreted', says Germany's SchaeubleBB

ECB Hires Blackrock For ABS-Buying AdviceZH
ECB says selects Blackrock to help develop ABS planBB

ECB’s Coeure Says ABS Push May Fail Unless States Back DebtBB
Europe is facing a very fundamental choice if it wants to move to an ABS market that is as deep and liquid as the U.S. market. To reach this goal, the securitization market will require a significantly different amount of public sponsoring than is currently the case.”

German consumer confidence drops for the first time in 20 months – TradingFloor
A single month, wiped nearly all gains of the boom of the last 12 months – Wolf Street

UNITED STATES
CBO Sees Wider U.S. Deficit as Slower Growth Cuts RevenueBB
The budget deficit in the U.S. this year will be wider than predicted four months ago as weaker- than-expected economic growth in the first half hurt tax revenue, the Congressional Budget Office said.

Bringing It Back HomeProject Syndicate
An increasing number of American companies are making plans to shift their headquarters to Europe, in order to escape the United States’ uniquely unfavorable corporate tax rules. So what should US policymakers do?

ASIA
China: Is the housing market weakness cyclical or structural?Danske Bank
Since 2006 there has been a substantial slowdown in new home investments. Our calculations suggest that structural growth in new home investments could already have declined below 7%...Nonetheless, at least 70% of the decline in new home investments over the past year appears to be cyclical and can largely be explained by tighter financial conditions.

Foreigners in the firing line as Chinese regulators take aimTradingFloor
Pauline Loong: Foreign companies swept up in China’s anti-trust investigations may soon find company in misery. The threat of rising defaults in wealth management and other investment products is focusing regulatory attention on the liabilities of fund management companies and that of their foreign partners.

China property slump persists into August, data showsFT

China Industrial Commodities Collapse, Sentiment Tumbles ZH

OTHER
Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: The ECB’s New Math: 5+5=QE * ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now * Hungary Leaves Key Rate Unchanged After Two Years of Cutting * Europe’s Banks Boost Lending in Asia

Daily MacroWSJ
Euro-zone bond yields slide to yet new record lows as expectations grow that the European Central Bank is lining up a massive dose of quantitative easing—perhaps focused on purchases of private sector assets, such as ABS, rather than government bonds. It has put the onus very strongly on ECB President Mario Draghi, who helped create this anticipation with his speech in Jackson Hole last weekend. Some are calling those comments “Whatever it Takes 2,” a rerun of his pledge from two years ago to save the euro, but this time he absolutely has to deliver concrete policy action. Words are not enough. If, after all this talk, nothing happens, the snapback in the market will be violent. Let’s hope he has the full backing of the Germans.

ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For NowWSJ
The linkages between the euro zone and the U.S. could make it difficult for the two central banks to run markedly different policies for long. “Either the global environment gets good enough for the euro-zone outlook to improve–then the ECB will not be on a different path as the Fed for long–or if the global outlook goes down, then the Fed would delay a policy tightening”, said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding.

EURUSD: Further weakness aheadTradingFloor
Sell EURUSD about 1.3175, stop 1.3204 initially, trailing stop to break-even and better once 1.3145 is broken, target 50% at 1.3115 and 50% at 1.3070

When FX wars become negative interest warsFT
FX strategist at UBS has been wondering about what the Swiss National Bank may do if the ECB’s measures to weaken the euro begin to test its 1.20 EURCHF floor.

Dollar Slips, while Bond Market Rally ContinuesMarc to Market

Another USD regime shift?FT
BofAML’s David Woo: The momentum behind the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral debt and Eurozone high yield credit has been slowing since the start of Q3….Investors maybe rotating out of European bonds into US bonds… If we are right that foreign private buying of US bonds (on a currency unhedged basis ) is picking up, the USD will be the primary beneficiary.

Weekly Bond Update: Hoping to dodge a setback in EuropeTradingFloor

Explaining My PortfolioThe Short Side of Long
Where does one see value in current global macro environment * Silver’s bear market is now ongoing for almost 3 and half years * Sugar is one of the most disliked agricultural commodities… * Uranium is one of the most oversold industries in the world…  * Australian economy has not suffered a recession for 23 years! * I do not want anything to do with US stocks or US bonds!!! * I am closely tracking Russian stocks & Gold Mining Juniors 

FINNISH
Venäjä-pakotteiden ja vastapakotteiden talousvaikutukset vähäisiäVerkkouutiset
EU:n ja muiden maiden rajoittavilla toimenpiteillä ja Venäjän tuontikiellolla on vain vähäisiä suoria vaikutuksia Venäjän ja sen kauppakumppaneiden kokonaistaloudelliseen toimintaan, arvioidaan keskiviikkona hallitukselle luovutetussa raportissa.

Onko rahapoliittisen keskustelun käymisessä mitään järkeä?Tyhmyri

sekä kertauksena heinäkuulta 2013:
Vaarallinen elvytysharha – yhtä vaarallinen kuin säästämisen harhaTyhmyri

Masokistinen talouspolitiikka johtaa talousanemiaanJan Hurri / TalSa
Hallitus tasapainoilee budjettiriihen linjauksia muka yllättyneenä talouden heikosta yleiskunnosta. Talouden anemian ei kuitenkaan pitäisi olla yllätys, sillä se on seurausta EU:n ja Suomenkin varta vasten harjoittamasta masokistisesta talouspolitiikasta. Samaa talouden temppurataa on kuitenkin tarkoitus jatkaa.

Stubb: Valtion budjetti pienenee taasTalSA
Budjettiriihen ensimmäisen päivän tiedotustilaisuudessa ei saatu tarkkoja tietoja ensi vuoden budjetista ja rakennepaketista, vaan niitä joudutaan odottamaan huomiseen. Venäjä-pakotteista sen sijaan esitettiin huojentavia arvioita.

EKP jatkaa ajanpeluutaVesa Varhee / TalSa
Euroopan keskuspankin pääjohtaja Mario Draghi antoi viikonloppuna selvän viestin. EKP jatkaa elvyttävää rahapolitiikkaa ja on valmis erityistoimiin taloutta uhkaavan deflaation torjumiseksi.

Palkansaajien ansiot Q2 +1,2% – Tilastokeskus
Myönnettyjen rakennuslupien kuutiomäärä Q2 -11% – Tilastokeskus
Kuluttajien luottamus heikkeni elokuussa – Tilastokeskus
Konkurssien määrä tammi-heinäk. -4,5 prosenttia YoY – Tilastokeskus

Saturday, August 23

23rd Aug - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

23rd Aug - Special: Jackson Hole

UPDATED

23rd Aug - W/E: Best of the Week

The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts.

Tuesday, August 19

19th Aug - New Worries



Quote of the Day: 

My guess is that the ECB will not do any of these things. It will continue blaming eurozone governments for not implementing structural reforms. Eventually, it will adopt a programme of asset purchases that is too small, which it will abandon prematurely at the first sign of recovery. The result is that the eurozone will end up looking like Japan, but with one difference. Countries whose policy goes off track have nowhere to go. The member states of a monetary union have alternatives. By failing to deliver on its inflation target, the ECB could give member countries a good reason to leave the eurozone: they could have a better central bank. My advice to the ECB: do not let that happen. (Münchau / FT)

Saturday, August 16

16th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Tuesday, August 12

12th Aug - Carnage Continues



12th Aug - Credit Guest: Cognitive Dissonance


Please find attached the latest cross-post from and by Macronomics - the trucker pill-solution to market anxieties!

Saturday, August 9

9th Aug - W/E: The Link Fest


9th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, August 2

2nd Aug - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. Post will be updated as new stuff comes along.

Saturday, July 26

27th Jul - W/E: Markets & Economics



27th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

27th Jul - W/E: The World


Here is a collection of some of this week's more interesting articles on Europe, US and Asia.

Saturday, July 19

19th Jul - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

This weekend's links to interesting reads not related to markets / econ - you know, for the curious ones!

19th Jul - W/E: World, Markets, Economics



This weekend's links on markets, economics, EU etc.

19th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Sunday, July 13

13th Jul - W/E: Markets, Economics, Off-Topic, Finnish




13th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. Note that some houses are already on holiday mood, thus several missing links...

Friday, July 11

11th Jul - W/E: Roundup of the world's week



Due to holidays and lack of daily posting, here are the articles and events of the ending week that I wanted to make a note of.

Tuesday, July 8

8th Jul - Credit Guest: The Golden Mean

Not everyone is having a blogging holiday. Macronomics is busy, and here's his latest:

8th Jul - Time off


Since there isn't much happening on the economic calendar, and the weather is nice after a terrible June (worst for like 50 years or so), I'm taking a blogging holiday. Back for the next weekend updates.

Sunday, July 6

6th Jul - W/E: Linkfest



6th Jul - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Last week:
Juncker named the next president of the EU Commission.
Italy’s Renzi demands breaking fiscal pacts
BIS warned of a bubble similar to 2007
US June employment report stronger than expected
ECB moves to less frequent meetings, begins to publish minutes
Sweden’s central bank surprised with a large cut, disagreement
BNP Paribas was made an example
BoE is scared of housing bubble

Saturday, July 5

5th Jul - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, June 28

28th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Tuesday, June 24

Sunday, June 22

22nd Jun - W/E: Linkfest



Europe, US, Asia, Markets, Economics, Off-topic and Finnish.

Saturday, June 21

21st Jun - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

21st Jun - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week.

Sunday, June 15

15th Jun - W/E: Linkfest



15th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Sunday, June 8

8th Jun - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

8th Jun: W/E: Markets, Economics, Off-Topic, Finnish



8th Jun - W/E: Europe, US, Asia



Saturday, June 7

7th Jun - Credit Guest: Operation Mincemeat

The latest guest post from Macronomics:

7th Jun - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Saturday, May 31

31st May - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

31st May - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Saturday, May 24

24th May - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

24th May - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.



Sunday, May 18

18th May - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish



18th May - W/E: Geithner, Markets & Economics



18th May - W/E: The World Links




18th May - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

18th May - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Saturday, May 10

10th May - W/E: Weekly Support



Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

10th May - W/E: Best of the Week



Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.