MoreLiver's Daily: 4th Mar - US Close: Fed, Italy and Cyprus

For Europe, Ireland is the poster child for austerity and must, just must, be recovering. Some positive jobs figures, showing the first growth in employment since 2008 (on which more later) have prompted what passes for elation in the depression-hit island.

Has Europe Returned to the Brink? Not Yet – PIIE

The recent election and political confusion in Italy indicate that political risk is back in Europe. Yet what is the real scope of the danger, and where do we go from here? To answer, it is worth noting that there were two elections in Europe, one in Cyprus and one in Italy, and in many ways they produced opposite results.

European migration: Willkommen, Pablo – Buttonwood / The Economist

“all things being equal, a falling population which lowers the trend growth rate means that the structural component of the deficit is larger and the cyclical component is smaller, so less of the deficit will disappear automatically and further fiscal tightening will be necessary to balance the books.”

Euro zone to bail out Cyprus - no details on how – Reuters

Euro zone finance ministers pledged on Monday to agree a bailout for Cyprus by the end of March, but details of how the rescue will be financed are yet to be sorted out.

ITALY

Analysis: EU needs "who lost Italy" debate on austerity – Reuters

European policymakers should be asking themselves "who lost Italy" after a grassroots revolt against austerity, unemployment and the political elite caused an electoral earthquake in the euro zone's number three economy.

What is Italy Saying? – Project Syndicate

Joseph E. Stiglitz: The outcome of the Italian elections should send a clear message to Europe’s leaders: the austerity policies that they have pursued are being rejected by voters. Indeed, it will take a decade or more to recover the losses that austerity has wrought.

Draghi and Italy – Marc to Market

A key issue that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral outcome of Italy.

After the Election: Italy’s Possible Paths – WSJ

A brief sampling of politicians’ remarks made on Monday underline how far Italy is from forming a government after last week’s surprisingly inconclusive general election.

Anger builds in Italy as old guard plots fresh technocrat take-over – The Telegraph

Italy’s president Giorgio Napolitano is exploring the creation of a second technocrat government to break the political log-jam and calm markets after key parties failed to reach an accord, risking a serious popular backlash.

UNITED STATES

VIX 'Sell-And-Roll' Volume Explodes, Replacing Equity 'Buy-And-Hold' In The New Normal – ZH

Bernanke has created a world of insurance providers - who are fundamentally under-capitalized when the big one hits - as record high levels of net short positions, record volumes, and extreme beta to stocks leave the bevy of option premium sellers still consistently picking up nickels in front of that steam-roller.

FED

Janet L Yellen: Challenges confronting monetary policy – BIS (pdf)

Speech by Ms Janet L Yellen, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, Washington DC, 4 March 2013.

Fed's Yellen: Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy – Calculated Risk

Janet Yellen and the Fed’s labour market dashboard – alphaville / FT

Three Fed speeches and the most important decision Barack Obama will make this year – Wonkblog / WP

Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are sounding awfully dovish – Wonkblog / WP

SEQUESTER

Wonkbook: Into the sequester, onto the shutdown? – Wonkblog / WP

Economic Impact of the Sequester, Illustrated – The Reformed Broker

STUDENT LOANS

Having toilet-papered a tree, students move on to trash ABS market – alphaville / FT

Student loan balances have surpassed credit card use and are still growing…overall delinquencies are on the rise for all age groups.

Damn straight I’m a college grad! Paper or plastic? – alphaville / FT

OTHER

Stan Druckenmiller Interview – Short Side of the Long

IN FINNISH
Monta rautaa tulessa – Henri Myllyniemi / piksu

Viikonlopun jälkeen pääsevät taas monen Euroopan maan valtiovarainministerit tunnelmaa kohottaviin linjausten tekemiseen. Lienee kuitenkin tylsää käsitellä vain yhtä asiaa kerrallaan, joten tällä erää pohdittavaa on paljon. Kypros, Irlanti, Portugali, Hollanti, Italia ja kenties pari ajatusta vaihdetaan Espanjastakin.

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Monday, March 4

4th Mar - US Close: Fed, Italy and Cyprus