Best picks from my posts, since the previous ‘Best
of’.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Here comes ... the German
Anti-Euro Party – Open
Europe
The new
party will launch in April under the name
"Alternative for Germany". The party appears to be an
offspring of "Wahlalternative 2013" (Election Alternative 2013) - a
group consisting mostly of academics but also including Hans-Olaf Henkel, the
well-known and outspoken former head of Germany's employers federation BDI.
Time to wake up to reality
and deal with the EUR rationally – TradingFloor
Lars Seier
Christensen , co-founder & CEO / Saxo Bank: The euro will ultimately have
to go and all the money currently wasted on extend-and-pretend deals would be
better used on an organised, well-structured and carefully planned elimination
of the currency.
DOWNTURN
Europe's economic fractures widen in February – Reuters
France, Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone into a deeper
downturn in February, according to business surveys that showed the chasm
between these countries and prosperous Germany widening yet again.
European Crisis Over? Not So
Fast – ZH
Eurozone Downturn Accelerates
Despite German Growth – Mish’s
AUSTERITY
Disastrous Predictions and
Predictable Disasters
– Krugman
/ NYT
As Jonathan
Portes points out, it is now more than two years since Olli Rehn declared that Europe’s recovery in the real economy has
taken hold and is becoming self-sustaining.
The
sad record of fiscal austerity – FT
Martin Wolf: The ECB could have prevented the panic.
Tens of millions are now suffering unnecessarily
Understanding Europe's
"Austrian" Solution – ZH
UBS' Larry Hatheway: The Merkel-Draghi wager: Will it pay off?
ECB
Did OMTs Turn the ECB Into a
Real Central Bank?
– WSJ
There is a tide
in the affairs of central banking which, taken at the flood, leads on to
fortune, as Shakespeare almost said
Special: ECB Watch – MoreLiver’s
ECB afterthoughts: Draghi’s bad cop day – TradingFloor
Juhani
Huopainen: The ECB did nothing and promised nothing, and said everyone already knows
how the OMT programme operates. Given the terrible macro picture, this was just
bad cop to Italy and good cop to Germany.
ITALY
Calling Italy’s Tune: I
Pagliacci? La Forza del Destino? – A
Fistful of Euros
The
audience is wondering what might happen in the second act–which is frantically
being written in the wings. Here are some possible scenarios:
Analysis: EU needs "who
lost Italy" debate on austerity – Reuters
European
policymakers should be asking themselves "who lost Italy" after a grassroots revolt against
austerity, unemployment and the political elite caused an electoral earthquake
in the euro zone's number three economy.
What is Italy Saying? – Project
Syndicate
Joseph E.
Stiglitz: The outcome of the Italian elections should send a clear message to Europe’s leaders: the austerity policies
that they have pursued are being rejected by voters. Indeed, it will take a decade
or more to recover the losses that austerity has wrought.
Draghi and Italy – Marc to Market
A key issue
that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral
outcome of Italy.
OTHER
PIIGS
Euro zone to bail out Cyprus - no details on how – Reuters
Euro zone
finance ministers pledged on Monday to agree a bailout for Cyprus by the end of March, but details of
how the rescue will be financed are yet to be sorted out.
Ireland and Portugal set for debt deferral – euobserver
Ireland and Portugal are to be given more time to repay their
emergency loans with both countries seen as good pupils in following the
imposed austerity programme.
UNITED STATES
Fifty
Trades of Grey – The Big
Picture
JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest walks us through the changes
in his attitude toward the Fed, from the heady days of early 2009
Having toilet-papered a tree,
students move on to trash ABS market – alphaville
/ FT
Student
loan balances have surpassed credit card use and are still growing…overall
delinquencies are on the rise for all age groups.
Damn
straight I’m a college grad! Paper or plastic? – alphaville
/ FT
Fed Balance Sheet Risks – MacroMania
ECONOMICS & REGULATION
'How To (Maybe) End Too Big
To Fail' – Economist’s
View
Booms
and Systemic Banking Crises – Economist’s
View
Banking crises are credit booms gone wrong.
What Is the Difference
between Investing and Speculation? – CFA
Institute
Fantasy central banking – alphaville
/ FT
The first
round of this JP Morgan designed card-game saw Draghi shot down by King when
“Size of Reaction Function Change” came up and Draghi scored really quite low.
An Infinite Amount of Money – John
Mauldin / The Big Picture
The three
major blocs of the developed world are careening toward a debt-fueled
denouement that will play out over years rather than in a single moment. And
contrary to some opinion, there is no certain ending. There are multiple paths
still available to Europe and especially the US, though admittedly none of them are
bright and carefree. There are very few paths available to Japan, as they have skipped too far down
the yellow brick road of debt.
MARKETS
Morning Briefing (EU/US): The
month ahead – BNY
Mellon
It’s time to update our risk calendar through
until the end of March
Warren Buffett’s 2012
Annual Shareholder Letter – PragCap
Warren Buffett to
American CEOs and Investors: Man Up – The
Reformed Broker
Comments on the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter – The
Aleph Blog
Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human
Misjudgement – The
Big Picture
Audio of the
often referred to speech by Charlie Munger on the psychology of human
misjudgement given to an audience at Harvard University circa Jun 1995. Mr. Munger speaks
about the framework for decision making and the factors contributing to
misjudgements. c. Jun 1, 1995
Ray Dalio went into this year
even more bullish than we thought – Reuters
But after
taking my own recent look at Bridgewater’s year-end investor note–book is probably
a better description for the 300-page plus bound treatise–you realize that
bullish just doesn’t describe Bridgewater’s stance going in 2013.
IN FINNISH
Komissaarin uudet vaatteet – onko niitä? –
Jan
Hurri / TalSa
EU-komissio on omilla toimillaan myöntänyt
talouspolitiikkansa virheitä ja haittavaikutuksia. Silti talouskomissaari Olli
Rehnin mielestä virheistä ei sovi keskustella julkisesti, ettei
"luottamus" vain vaarannu. Sadussa keisari ylpeili uusilla
vaatteillaan vaikka oli kelteisillään – minkälaista kangasta ovatkaan
komissaarin uudet vaatteet?
Silmät kiinni – pian
me pelastamme rahanpesijöitä – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjät ovat luvanneet Kyprokselle apurahaa velkojen
maksuun ja pankkitukeen, kunhan maailman tunnetuimpiin kuuluvalta
veronkiertosaarelta ei lähiviikkoina löydy tuoreita jälkiä rahanpesusta.
Komission kanta on selvä: Kypros-riski kuuluu ennemmin euromaiden
veronmaksajille kuin kansainvälisille rahanpesijöille.
Timo Soinin lausunto ihmetyttää – Soini myöntää
muutoksen: ”Ei Suomi voi yksin lähteä” – US
Soini, PTT:n tutkimus ja eurointoilijoiden
todellisuus – Toimi
Kankaanniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Kuka ajoi PTT:n miinaan? – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Saariselän salakokous keskustelee EU:n
tulevaisuudesta – KU
Joukko Euroopan maiden ministereitä keskustelee Euroopan
tulevaisuudesta Inarin Saariselällä 22.–24. maaliskuuta.
Kypros -
periaatteiden hautuumaa – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Vanha laulu,
samanlaiset – Juhani
Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro
Näin pöllit 300
miljoonaa – MoreLiver's