Looks like the unemployment threshold will be updated soon - too many people are dropping out of the labor force, so a drop in unemployment does not mean much. Fed has still more room to do QE, so unless the program faces dire political opposition, the current fears of an early end could be unfounded. Meanwhile, ECB's policy reginalization is not yet flying, and it is uncertain if it ever will.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: Turmoiling Market Plummets By 0.17% On POMO-Free Day – ZH
EUROPE
Effects of the Euro Crisis on Reserve Currency
Holdings – PIIE
The shares in foreign
exchange reserves of the euro and the US dollar may recover somewhat as the
euro area and US financial assets become financially more attractive and less
risky. Nevertheless, it is likely that we will continue to see a reduced relative
preference for holding dollars and euros as reserve managers increasingly
diversify their holdings beyond the five traditional reserve currencies,
following the lead of private sector investors.
Current account reversals in industrial countries – ECB (pdf)
Does the exchange rate
regime matter?
NPLs and lights in dark places – alphaville
/ FT
Chart from JP Morgan’s
Flows & Liquidity team shows the evolution of non-performing loan ratios
(as percentages of total loans) across three different Euro area blocks: Germany, core and periphery.
Worst of Euro-Zone Crisis Not Yet Over – WSJ
A majority of European
investors believe the worst of the euro-zone crisis isn't over yet, with weak
economic growth prospects the central concern, a survey by Fitch Ratings said
Monday.
EU targets tax evasion on savings – euobserver
The EU commission
wants to tighten tax loopholes for EU citizens who hold accounts in member
states and in Switzerland, Andorra, San Marino, Monaco and Lichtenstein.
Reflections from Buckinghamshire – Olli Rehn’s blog
Recovery in their time – Free
exchange / The Economist
ECB
Economists Far From Sure We’ll See Negative ECB
Deposit Rates – WSJ
The ECB would like to
encourage banks in Southern
Europe to issue more
loans. But Berlin is concerned that a planned move to trigger
such lending could violate EU treaties. German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schäuble has hit the brakes.
UNITED STATES
The Fed can keep buying for a while, if it
wants to – alphaville
/ FT
It will be a little
while yet before the Fed approaches that threshold, even if it increases
purchases to $65bn a month. And the Fed also has the option to shift its
purchases along the curve if chooses to:
A gap-ing problem – alphaville
/ FT
The US unemployment rate has continued to decline
steadily, and at its current pace would hit the Fed’s 6.5 per cent threshold to
begin raising rates by roughly the middle of next year. But the suggestion made
by the research is that the decline in the unemployment rate perhaps projects
an overly optimistic image of improvements in the labour market.
Is A Fed 'Taper' Positive For Treasuries? – Mark
Grant / ZH
Retail Sales: slow growth but better than
expected
ASIA
Nothing Fails like Success – Marc
to Market
Far from a revolution
that many observers have hyped, the Abe's diagnosis and medicine is not new,
even if the dosage is. The problem, as
we have argued before, is not too little investment in Japan but really the opposite; too much
investment.
Japanese Government Bonds Give BOJ A Headache – WSJ
Chinese shadow banking: three different ones – alphaville
/ FT
Chinese Power Consumption Collapses: Slowest
Since Early 2009 – ZH
OTHER
ECB Rate Talk Blunts Fed’s Impact – WSJ
Why do people support austerity? A conjecture. – Noahpinion
OFF-TOPIC
The Man Behind the Google Brain: Andrew Ng and
the Quest for the New AI – Wired
There’s a theory that
human intelligence stems from a single algorithm. The idea arises from
experiments suggesting that the portion of your brain dedicated to processing
sound from your ears could also handle sight for your eyes. This is possible
only while your brain is in the earliest stages of development, but it implies
that the brain is — at its core — a general-purpose machine that can be tuned
to specific tasks.
What Bloomberg scandal reveals about how the
media really makes money – Wonkblog
/ WP
Return of the Borg: How Twitter Rebuilt
Google’s Secret Weapon – Wired
More Science Fiction for Economists (Seriously
Time-Wasting) – Krugman
/ NYT
11 Essential Features that Visual Analysis
Tools Should Have – Strata
With Personal Data, Predictive Apps Stay a Step
Ahead – MIT
Technology Review
How Can They Charge That? (And Other Questions) – NYT