European banks still
untreated, banking union is far away. US sees no inflation, while the FED
officials are all over the place on the QE tapering. Will they, or will they
not, and what then… One important thing to notice: ISDA is discussing adding
bail-ins to its default criteria. This is important, as it makes any possible
bail-ins in Europe a bit harder to do in practice. Follow that
story. Next week BoJ meeting and FOMC minutes, Bernanke speaks on Saturday.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: Tepper Topped – ZH
EUROPE
Banking union on the cheap will fail – Free
exchange / The Economist
After the German
elections, Europe has a short window of opportunity to rescue the euro project.
It is the moment for Germany to accept what it signed for in joining the Euro
or exit.
Too many European banks and why the
deleveraging has only just started – Macronomics
Stress you next year – alphaville
/ FT
This is one way to
respond to the mess Euroland is in over who should make the calls for
recapitalising banks…The European Banking Authority is delaying its next
banking stress test to 2014, to wait for both new asset-quality reviews and the
ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism
EU Referendum Bill faces many hurdles – Open
Europe
Now the Conservatives
have published their EU Referendum Bill there only remains the small question
of how it could become law.
UNITED STATES
Is the massive drop in lumber futures telling
us something? – Sober
Look
If we are not
witnessing a cooling in new home construction, maybe Mr. Timiraos can explain
why lumber futures have declined over 20% in the last couple of months.
Key Measures show low and falling inflation in
April – Calculated
Risk
FED
The end of QE? – alphaville
/ FT
Marc Ostwald at
Monument Securities has spotted that an important theme is developing: a rise
in the number of warnings about QE suspension and QE exit.
Pigeonholing Fed hawks – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Fed’s Rosengren: Government Fiscal Policy Big
Drag on Economy – WSJ
The economy would
benefit much more from the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy actions
if not for the significant headwinds being created by government taxation and
spending policies, a central bank official said.
Fed’s Raskin: Still Long Way From Feeling Like
Healthy Economy – WSJ
The U.S. economy
continues to recover from the 2008 financial crisis and the deep recession that
followed, but it still has a long way to go until it feels "like a healthy
economy," Fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin said in a speech.
Fed’s Williams Open to Tapering Bond Purchases – WSJ
The leader of the
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is open to cutting the central bank's
bond-buying program at some point over the next few months, provided the
economy continues to grow.
OTHER
Views among economists: Are economists really
so divided? – voxeu.org
Remedying a global
crisis such as this requires concerted, consensual, coordinated effort. But
we’re told economists are divided on what to do next. Is this true? Are we
divided? This column praises efforts such as the Economic Experts Panel from
the Chicago Booth School of Business. It’s from panels like this – which
comprise top economists with differing political views – that we can get a
sense of consensus or disagreement on major economic issues.
The Sadomonetarists of Basel – Krugman
/ NYT
We must raise rates to
avoid ... something.
Current Monetary and Fiscal Policies Need to Be
Replaced – EconoMonitor
Richard Wood: Reports
of the important recent IMF conference ‘Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps
and Early Lessons’ suggest that it was refreshing and informative. What appears (from the reports) to have been
largely overlooked at the conference, however, was a rethinking of the interrelationships
and scope for improved coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.
New CDS trigger event proposed to tackle
bail-in – IFR
Asia
ISDA is consulting on
a proposal to add another credit event for financial credit default swaps in
order to adapt to sweeping changes in regulation that will give supervisory
authorities the power to bail-in the debt of floundering institutions.