Current Specials:
Special: ECB Watch (updated)
Special: FED Watch (updated)
Special:
Reinhart & Rogoff Debacle (updated)
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: S&P Hits New All-Time Highs With Oil's Biggest Spike In Six
Months – ZH
EUROPE
A new paper from a
European Commission economist obliquely questions another tenet of austerity.
Throughout Europe's debt crisis, northern European leaders have
often said they will not stand for taxpayers having to fork out for other
countries' problems, and the notion of "taxpayer-funded bailouts" has
taken root.
The employment related
data was mostly disappointing in April.
The ADP and ISM manufacturing reports suggest a decrease in hiring (the
ISM service report will not be released until after the BLS report), the small
business index increased but was still weak, and weekly claims for the
reference week were higher in April than in March (although claims for the
month were lower). There is always some randomness to the employment report,
but my guess is the BLS will report somewhat below the consensus of 153,000
jobs added in April.
Economists had
generally under-estimated the strength of high frequency data in early Q1 and
by the time they adjusted, the US economy began softening. This pattern warns of
downside risks to tomorrow's jobs report. Yet, even if the number is in line with
expectations, it represents a clear slowing.
MACRO
NUMBERS
Trade Deficit declined in March to $38.8 Billion – Calculated Risk
Trade Deficit declined in March to $38.8 Billion – Calculated Risk
Enjoy Shrinking Trade
Gap. It Won’t Last – WSJ
Initial Claims Lowest
Since Jan 2008; Import Plunge Leads To Lower Trade Deficit – ZH
OTHER
EMEA Weekly– Danske
Bank (pdf)
The "Price" Of Record High Markets:
$10 Trillion In Seven Years – ZH
JPM Asset Management
CIO Michael Cembalest research note (full pdf)
Monetary stimulus vs financial stability is a
false trade-off – Worthwhile
There's an idea
floating around out there that I fear may be influential. And that idea is
horribly wrong. Which makes it dangerous. And I want to try to kill it. But
macro is hard. And it's not easy to explain clearly and simply. I can only try.
Austerity is not the only answer to a debt
problem – FT
Policy makers must use
all the tools available, write Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (short
summary here)
Comment on Reinhart and Rogoff's FT article – Not
the Treasury View
My letter to the FT
responds to Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's opinion piece (2 May):
The third lever of macroeconomics – Free
exchange / The Economist
Economics undergrads
learn early on about two levers to manage the macroeconomy: fiscal policy and
monetary policy. Events of the last five years make clear that there is a third
lever that while poorly understood and difficult to model, it is at times critical:
credit policy.
Free Vegas Trips, Cocaine And Hookers: A Peek
At Real Banker Life – ZH
FINNISH
VM:n
virkamies: Velkakriisi ei ole vienyt meiltä senttiäkään – TalSa
Valtiovarainministeriön virkamiehen,
finanssineuvos Martti Salmen mukaan Suomi ei ole vielä hävinnyt senttiäkään
eurokriisissä. Sen sijaan Suomi on hyötynyt selvästi rahoituskulujen
alentuessa, kertoo Reuters.
EKP:n
korot linjaan FED:in kanssa – Sami
Miettinen / US Puheenvuoro
- miten setelirahoitus kopioidaan reilusti?
Finanssirosvous
OSA 1 – Jarno Lönnqvist /
Piksu