Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Calmer Day In Prospect as
Nikkei Recovers – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: EZ inflation, jobless and
US Income, Outlays – TradingFloor
European inflation and
unemployment data will probably confirm that more monetary easing is required,
while US personal spending and income should suggest that growth is still slow
and quantitative easing dependency remains elevated.
European markets are
expected to open mostly higher Friday. Markets are likely to keep an eye on
Eurozone CPI and unemployment data for further hints on the region’s
performance. Additionally, a slew of US macro data will hold market interest.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
We expect only a
modest uptick in euro area inflation to 1.4%... It is also worth keeping an eye
Italian Central
Bank governor Visco’s speech today to see if periphery countries are putting
pressure on
the ECB to do
more.
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Paremmista
luottamusluvuista ei mitään iloa * Mitä kuuluu BRICeille? * Tänään tietoa
euroalueen inflaatiosta
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
EUROPE
ECB Preview: The end of monetary easing – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The likelihood of a
deposit rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting is close to nil and the chance
that the ECB will move to negative rates at a later stage is very small. The
ECB might present an ABS purchasing programme, but we doubt that they are ready
to give details yet and if announced the programme might underwhelm. The most
likely outcome is that Mario Draghi will deliver nothing but soft wording. If he
wants to add further stimulus, a refinancing rate cut is the most plausible
option.
UNITED STATES
Snapshot: where Fed
officials stand on ending QE3 – MacroScope
/ Reuters
ASIA
Japan has released a number of reports early in the Tokyo session that show an economy seemingly on the
mend and an easing of deflationary pressures. Ironically, the yen tended to
weaken in response, whereas the dollar ostensibly sold off in North America after disappointing US data
2013 IMF Article IV Consultation Concluding
Statement – IMF
Is This China's
'Minsky Moment'? – ZH
SocGen: Since 2009, China’s credit growth has outpaced nominal GDP
growth in every quarter except one (Q4 11)… The increase in credit demand is
disproportionally larger compared to the recovery in investment appetite so
far. This raises the question whether activity growth will really follow and if
so by how much?
OTHER
There's a problem
with the transmission.... – Coppola
Comment
Not only does QE fail when damaged banks aren't lending normally, but it
actually impairs the transmission mechanism itself. This might explain why QE
seems to become less effective the more of it you do. It's like hard water. It
gradually clogs up its own pipes.
Rethinking
macroeconomic policy: Getting granular – voxeu.org
Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Paolo Mauro: The Global Crisis
has shaken the consensus on how to run macroeconomic policy. Three years ago,
the authors discussed this issue on VoxEU.org. This column takes a more
granular look at new efforts to rethink macroeconomic policy. It takes stock of
early results and provides a more detailed agenda for the key issues that
should keep policymakers and academic macroeconomists busy in the next few
years.
What does it mean to
have "predicted the crisis"? – Noahpinion
Since 2008, quite a lot of people have boldly claimed that they
"predicted the crisis". Usually, the claimants use this
"fact" to argue for the superiority of their economic school of
thought, modeling approach, investing approach, or personal intuition. But what
does it mean to have "predicted the crisis"?
Things That Make You
Go Hhmm... – Grant
Williams / ZH
37 pages of
goodies.
FINNISH
Euro-ovet sulkeutuvat yksi kerrallaan – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
Suomi ei saanut Kreikalta vakuutta – HS
Kreikan uusi
lainajärjestely on todennäköinen, koska valtion velkaantuminen kiihtyy