Wednesday, July 31
Tuesday, July 30
Monday, July 29
Saturday, July 27
27th Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Friday, July 26
26th Jul - Weekender: Best of the Week
The
best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here. This blog turned two
years old last week.
Overall, a dull week. Europe showed terrible monetary data, while optimism is on the rise according to Markit PMI. The most important development has been the sudden uncertainty over who gets nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Up next: the usual weekender-posts, plus link
collections on Summers vs. Yellen-debate and the SAC.
Thursday, July 25
Wednesday, July 24
Tuesday, July 23
23rd Jul - Credit Guest: Every Silver Lining...
Here's this week's guest post from Macronomics - the first stop for getting a deeper view.
23rd Jul - EU Open: Confidence, my friend
Europe’s consumer and business
confidence is published today. July PMIs out on Wednesday, German IFO on
Thursday.
Monday, July 22
22nd Jul - US Open
Quote of the Day: European banks need at least €350bn to €400bn
of new capital. Our top-down and bottom-up work combined with OECD estimates
point to a material deficit, two-thirds of which is in the Eurozone. The
estimates ignore upside risk from adopting depositor preference. Options to
plug the deficit include contingent capital – not CoCos (which do not work, in
our view), but forms of standby capital. – Berenberg:
22nd Jul - EU Open: Asia, G20 chewn, PMI week
The richest 200 people
have about $2.7 trillion, which is more than the poorest 3.5 billion people,
who have only $2.2 trillion combined.
Saturday, July 20
20th Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
20th July - MoreLiver's is two years old
Two years. 730 days. 1932 postings.
175,000 pageviews (robots, spammers removed)
This was my first post on 20 July 2011.
Most of you are regulars - thank you.
Traffic Sources - thank you
25,000 trooli.fi
12,000 uusisuomi.fi
4,000 soberlook.com
2,700 twitter
2,400 facebook
1,800 alphaville / The Financial Times
1,800 nuclearphynance.com
1,100 thetrader.se
700 zerohedge.com
700
blankfiendsew.blogspot.com
700
tyhmyri.wordpress.com
600 forum.finance.ua
below 500:
keskustelu.kauppalehti.fi
aviewfrommyscreens.com
hommaforum.org
simoleonsense.com
nakedcapitalism.com
pragcap.com
greaterfool.ca
marketfolly.com
apareena.arvopaperi.fi
borssnack.di.se
economistsview.typepad.com
reddit.com
ebolakani.blogspot.fi
pitkassajuoksussa.blogspot.fi
sijoitus.org
cepr.net
macronomy.blogspot.com
tradingfloor.com
macroandcheese.org
Friday, July 19
19th Jul - Weekender: Best of the Week
The best articles from
the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.
This was supposed to be a relatively interesting week, but not much happened after all. China reported relatively low GDP numbers, US macro releases were also relatively weak, Federal Reserve's Bernanke gave a testimony but provided no new clues. Europe released montly current account balances, and it looks like that for a long, long time, countries excluding Germany are also making positive balances. To what extent this is just a reflection of the weak import demand, remains to be seen.
Thursday, July 18
Wednesday, July 17
17th Jul - EU Open: Ben's testimony today
Funny – just as the
IMF has stated that the Commission is not fact-based, highly political, cannot
admit its policy errors and that the IMF will not participate in lousy, stupid,
untenable bailouts in the future, the Commission is quick to state that the IMF
should leave the Troika. The Commission sounds like the girls I used to go out
with – quick to end a relationship when they sense that the other is about to
leave.
Of course, the Reding’s
argument of lack of democratic oversight is ridiculous – the Commission is not
answerable to anyone in practice. Her suggestion would only lead to a further
increase of Brussels’ powers, and more policy errors based on the
narrow interest and political bickering.
Meanwhile, there have
been comments that the Troika should really be abolished – and the IMF should
take the whole Europe under its program.
Tuesday, July 16
Monday, July 15
Sunday, July 14
Saturday, July 13
13th Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Because of the holiday period, many desks are not publishing at the moment.
Sorry about the lack of material.
Friday, July 12
12th Jul - Weekender: Best of the Week
The
best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.
The main event of the
week was the release of the minutes from the previous Federal Reserve’s FOMC
meeting, which showed that “tapering” – slowing down and eventually ending the
asset purchases – is to remain conditional on the economy. Bernanke’s press Q&A confirmed the message. This led to huge moves in the
US-dollar, a new high in stock markets and lower interest rates.
The second development
is the muddle-through toward a banking union in Europe, but the obstacles seem
surmountable.
The third development
is signs of political discontent in many debtor (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy), and to a lesser extent in creditor countries
as well, as they start to realize that there will be losses. This counters the
attempts to federalization.
Everyone seems to be
waiting for the German elections, and expects some sort of serious solution
attempt, perhaps as early as December. If no serious attempts are made after the elections, the calm in Europe will be quickly over.
Thursday, July 11
Wednesday, July 10
10th Jul - EU Open
Italy downgraded, ECB's recent speech moderated, FOMC minutes and Bernanke speech ahead.
Tuesday, July 9
Monday, July 8
8th Jul - EU Open: EURUSD signs of bottoming?
 |
| Daily chart - near range's bottom. Red vertical lines are ECB press Q&A days |
 |
Sunday, July 7
Saturday, July 6
6th Jul - Weekender: Linkfest
In this week's edition the usual Europe with focus on the PIIGS, Vatican's latest scandal, Marc Rich is dead, some interesting off-topic articles and couple of Finnish-language links.
6th Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Because of the European holiday period, many desks are not publishing at
the moment. Sorry about the lack of material.
Friday, July 5
5th Jul - Weekender: Best of the Week
The
best articles from the ending week. Last
week’s ‘best’ here.
The main news of the
week were the ECB’s and BoE’s move towards forward guidance – in case of the
ECB, it is already done, and BoE is expected to introduce such policies in
August. The EURUSD was hit hard, while asset markets loved it.
In Europe, Portugal is
in a tight spot, but with the usual recipe of the Troika turning a blind eye
and some political posturing, things will probably continue as they were, at
least until the German elections are over.
Thursday, July 4
4th July - US Close: BoE and ECB go guiding
Heavy central bank day - both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank provided dovish surprises and introduced forward guidance-measures or promises. ECB promised to keep rates for "a long time" - hardly news, but still an improvement over the previous "we do not pre-commit". BoE indicated that it could introduce guidance perhaps as early as in August.
Anchor Grills Draghi
on Forward Guidance – Youtube
Wednesday, July 3
Tuesday, July 2
2nd Jul - EU Open - Quiet day ahead of CB's
Nothing on calendar, focus shifting to Thursday's central bank meetings and Friday's payrolls.
Monday, July 1
1st Jul - Credit Guest: The Daisy Cutter
This week's guest post from the no pain - no gain Macronomics. Great work again!
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