MARKETS
The
"Hall-Pass" Market Is Back (For Now) – ZH
The 'good-is-bad and good-is-good', or as Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker
calls it, the "Hall-Pass' market is one of four regimes that investors
face in the current environment.
Second-Quarter Corporate Earnings Are Revealing
the Truth About the Market – dshort
Weakening Global
Earnings Momemtum – Macronomics
Where Did All The Revenues Go? – ZH
It is not very
surprising that constantly beating (lowered) earning consensus is not much of a
challenge. However when it comes to revenue, where one must actually book a
sale instead of relying on accounting gimmicks and borderline Reg FD-breaching
sellside analyst chitchat, things are much different.
Austerity fatigue –
the financial world’s latest fad phrase – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Don’t personalize the
stock market – Abnormal
Returns
Global Business
Confidence Slips to Multi-Year Low – ZH
Happy banker:
'There's something narcotic about landing a big deal' – The
Guardian
Happy banker,
post-redundancy – The
Guardian
Does a happy banker
change his outlook after he is fired? – The
Guardian
Weekend Reads for
Financial Advisers – CFA
Institute
Smart Beta, Luck vs. Skill, and Behavioral Finance
Morgan Stanley is having an identity crisis – Quartz
Morgan Stanley hasn’t
completely adjusted to the world after the financial crisis. In Wall Street’s
map of the world, the bank is in something of a no-man’s land.
Book Review: Hedge Fund Market Wizards – CFA
Institute
Hedge Funds Are for Suckers – Businessweek
The Big Backlash – The
Reformed Broker
Are hedge funds really for suckers? Yeah,
kinda. – Wonkblog
/ WP
REGULATION
Finally, Bank Regulators Have Had Enough – Propublica
Does Dodd-Frank work? We asked 16 experts to
find out – Wonkblog
/ WP
Sunday is the third
anniversary of the Dodd-Frank Act. To get a sense of how implementation has
been going, I asked 16 people at the forefront of the debate to answer two
questions: What has gone better than you had expected? And what has gone worse?
Remember Citigroup – Simon Johnson
/ Baseline
SEC seeking to ban
Cohen from financial industry – Reuters
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday in a surprising
action took a step toward forcing hedge fund mogul Steven A. Cohen out of the
industry that he helped build.
SEC Accuses Cohen of
Failing to Prevent Insider Trading – BB
Cohen received highly suspicious information that should have caused any
reasonable hedge-fund manager to investigate the basis for trades made by
Mathew Martoma and Michael Steinberg, the SEC said in an administrative
proceeding…
The Things Traders
Say, the SAC Edition – DealBook
/ NYT
Watch what you say in instant messages. That is one of the lessons to be
drawn from the case filed by federal regulators on Friday against Steven A.
Cohen, who say that the billionaire hedge fund manager failed to supervise
employees accused of insider trading.
Swiss Bank Leaker: 'Money Is Easy to Hide' – Spiegel
It was the most
spectacular bank data leak of recent years: In 2008, former HSBC employee Hervé
Falciani disappeared with the information of some 130,000 customers. He tells
SPIEGEL he wants to help Europe hunt down its tax dodgers and expose a broken
system.
OECD unveils plan to
end 'golden era' of tax avoidance – The
Telegraph
David Cameron has called on the world’s leaders to get behind a global
crackdown on tax avoidance and “break down the walls of corporate secrecy”.
OECD launches plan to stop firms 'abusing' tax
rules – BBC
Existing tax rules
need updating as they can be "abused" by multinational companies
OTHER
Unemployment, the
output gap and wage flexibility – Mainly
Macro
This post is about the impact of nominal and real wage flexibility on
unemployment and the output gap. It starts in an academic, abstract sort of
way, but the policy implications do follow. I try and make the analysis as
accessible as I can to non-economists.
The Next Social
Contract – Project
Syndicate
The new social contract for the first half of the twenty-first century
must be one that combines fiscal realism, significant room for individual
preferences, and strong social solidarity and protection against shocks stemming
from personal circumstances or a volatile economy.
G20 report warns of
global tax chaos – The
Guardian
International tax system cannot deal with mobile multinational firms
that shift profits to low-tax countries, says OECD thinktank
G20 puts growth
before austerity, seeks to calm markets – Reuters
The Group of 20 nations put growth ahead of austerity as it seeks to
rebalance a multi-speed global economy, pledging to shift policy carefully so
that recovery is not derailed by volatile financial markets.
Advanced G20 countries ready to commit to debt
goals after 2016 – Reuters
Advanced G20 economies
are ready to commit to numerical targets for public debt reduction after 2016
to boost investor confidence and create better conditions for economic growth,
a senior G20 official told Reuters on Saturday.
There Is No Liquidity
Trap: Understanding 21st Century Monetary Policy – PIIE
Vintage Years in Econometrics - The 1950's – Dave Giles
Book Bits – The
Capital Spectator
Pseudo-flexible exchange-rate regimes – voxeu.org
According to the IMF,
last decade saw a number of countries actively managing their exchange rates.
Is this a good way for emerging economies to protect themselves from the large
swings of international markets? This column presents a new ‘pseudo-flexible’
exchange rate policy for emerging economies that is both sustainable and allows
for accumulating reserves in conjunction with domestic debt; resulting in low
exchange-rate volatility.
What Should We Expect For Long Run Risk
Premiums? – The
Capital Spectator
In order to calculate
estimated long-term returns for the various asset classes it is necessary to
devise an effective method and specific models. The uniqueness of our approach,
as opposed to traditional models, is that ours is research-based and takes
shifts in economic regime into account.
(direct pdf-link)
The Rules, Part XLV – The Aleph Blog
Market rents are typically fixed in size. When a strategy to exploit a particular
market inefficiency gets too big, returns to the rent disappear, or even go
negative prospectively, even if they appear exceedingly productive
retrospectively.