Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: Bonds And Stocks
Disagree On FOMC Taper As Oil And Gasoline Surge – ZH
EUROPE
Monetary policy that
cannot get traction; weak banks that cannot or will not lend; an economy
trapped in a twilight world of low growth, haunted by the specter of deflation.
UNITED STATES
FOMC MINUTES for meeting of June 18-19, 2013
We already know from
Chairman Bernanke that the majority of the FOMC plans to hold MBS to maturity
instead of selling; any additional clarifications to the June 2011 Exit
Strategy Principles would be noteworthy.
Half The Fed Said It Would Be Appropriate To
End QE "Late This Year" – ZH
Key Passages – WSJ
"Many members
indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be
required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset
purchases". We will probably know more on the Fed's plans after Bernanke's
speech and Q&A later today.
The minutes make the
point that some of those participants encouraging the announcement of a
tapering did so out of a belief that the recovery would strengthen
considerably. In other words, if it doesn’t accelerate, then the tapering would
be pushed back, but the point is that it is contingent on upcoming data.
Market As Confused As Fed (But Fades Rally) – ZH
Even The Experts Throw Up All Over The Fed
Minutes – ZH
Many on Fed Awaiting More Job Gains Before
Tapering QE – BB
Fed wants more job gains before slowing bond
buys: minutes – Reuters
Even as consensus
built within the Federal Reserve in June about the likely need to begin pulling
back on economic stimulus measures soon, many officials wanted more reassurance
the employment recovery was on solid ground before a policy retreat.
BERNANKE’S SPEECH
Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke at the "The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy
Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future," a conference
sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Gold, Bonds, And Stocks Soar As Bernanke
Promises Moar – ZH
Bernanke says Fed ready to push back if
financial conditions tighten too far – Reuters
Bernanke said on
Wednesday that the U.S. central bank might have to "push
back" if financial conditions tightened so much as to threaten the
economy's progress.
Bernanke hopes greater transparency at Fed will
be a legacy – Reuters
Eyeing the end of his
term as chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday
that he hopes his commitment to making what the central bank does more
transparent will be one of his legacies.
Bernanke says highly accommodative policy
needed for now – Reuters
Even as consensus
built within the Federal Reserve in June about the likely need to begin pulling
back on economic stimulus measures soon, many officials wanted more reassurance
the employment recovery was on solid ground before a policy retreat.
ASIA
Why you should worry about China – TradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: China has warned of a grim outlook for trade after a
surprise fall in exports and imports. Saxo Bank's Mads Koefoed says there is
now a lot of pressure on the country's government to come up with some kind of
fiscal stimulus.
China’s economy is slowing down. China reported that both exports and imports fell in
June, something that hadn’t happened since October 2009 during the depths of
the global recession.
The third arrow’s lofty aim: the cases for and
against optimism – alphaville
/ FT
From a recommended
Credit Suisse strategist note, first a reminder of what’s in Shinzo Abe’s
‘Third Arrow’ for rescuing the Japanese economy:
OTHER
Steen Jakobsen: The US
economy is too weak to create 2.5 percent growth this year and if anything
growth will disappoint. What is the Macro consensus call and why do I disagree?
Finally, maybe Italy and not Portugal is the real sick man of Europe!