Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
US: Silver Slammed As
Stocks And Bonds Slumber – ZH
EUROPE
So the French
President reckons France is on the verge of an economic recovery. Neil Staines, from the ECU
Group, isn't convinced. He says that France is about to slip on a very large banana skin. And
he's very concerned about contagion.
How Many European Recessions? – Project
Syndicate
…if these countries
have been in the same recession for five years, the implication may be that the
leaders have been doing the same wrong things throughout that period. That is
hardly an insignificant difference.
(9-July) Europe’s rich Baby Boomers are behaving like the
nobility in the Peasants’ Revolt, and could face an uprising by the younger
generation if the situation doesn’t change, HSBC’s chief economist has warned.
Greek parliament on
Wednesday is considering yet more public sector cuts. But even that might not
be enough, according to a German newspaper report. With German elections
pending, though, any immediate additional relief is unlikely.
UK
Nick Beecroft: The
release of the minutes from the Bank of England's MPC meeting two weeks ago
makes plain that, whatever else may be on the agenda, the death knell for UK quantitative easing is sounding ever louder.
BOE Left Battling Perception that ‘No Action’
Means ‘Tightening’ – WSJ
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Bernanke: bond tapering to begin later this
year, but plan not preset – Reuters
Bernanke said on
Wednesday the U.S. central bank still expects to start scaling back its massive asset
purchase program later this year, but left open the option of changing that
plan in either direction if the economic outlook shifted.
Bernanke Says Fed’s Monetary Policy Isn’t on a
‘Preset Course’ – BB
Bernanke said the
central bank’s asset purchases “are by no means on a preset course” and could
be reduced more quickly or expanded as economic conditions warrant.
Bernanke Seeks to Divorce QE Tapering From
Interest Rates – BB
Bernanke will have a
chance to use testimony to Congress today to drive home his message that
winding down asset purchases won’t presage an increase in the Fed’s benchmark
interest rate.
Bernanke's Full Prepared Remarks: "Asset
Purchases Not On A Preset Course" – ZH
Key Passages From Bernanke’s Testimony – WSJ
Nothing New from Bernanke, Wait for Q&A – Marc
to Market
As we do not see
Bernanke breaking new ground in his prepared remarks, we would not be surprised
to see the greenback recover.
Bernanke Is Reading From Same Script – WSJ
To be fair to the Fed,
its message that the reduction in bond-buying will be a slow process has been
consistent.
Fed Acknowledges Some Excessive Risk Taking
Sparked by Its Policies – WSJ
The Fed acknowledged
that there is some evidence its policies have led certain investors to take on
excessive leverage, duration risk or other forms of risk in order to boost
returns.
Return of the ‘D’ word – alphaville
/ FT
Most analysts are
noting the return of dovish sentiment, not to mention the explicit re-emergence
of the “D” word.
Bernanke: Broad Support on FOMC for 7% Jobless
Rate Guidepost on QE – WSJ
'Fed Chief Calls Congress Biggest Obstacle to
Growth' – Economist’s
View
Here we are with an
unemployment crisis, a huge output gap, and big infrastructure needs, record
low interest rates, while Congress sits on its hands because conservatives will
not agree to fund infrastructure, let alone government consumption spending.
Bernanke Takes a Dovish Stance – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Bernanke continues to
inject uncertainty regarding the path of asset purchases, while at the same
time creating more certainty about the path of interest rates. Altogether, part of his ongoing efforts to
minimize the tightening that occurred in the run-up and aftermathath to the
last FOMC meeting. But at the same time,
he said the data remain broadly consistent with the path he outlined at the
meeting, suggesting that the general policy path he outlined in June remains in
play, which means beginning to wind down asset purchases later this year.
Goldman's Bernanke Post-Mortem: "No Push
Back On Tapering Expectations" – ZH
The guy who tops the
list of those responsible for sabotaging the world’s economy is lobbying to be
the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
The Puzzling Return of Glass-Steagall – Marginal
Revolution
…doesn’t deal with the
problems that created the financial crisis. If one had to sum the crisis up in
one sentence it would be hard to do better than “a run on the shadow banking
system.”
Analysis: Caution
Injected Into Housing Markets – WSJ
Housing Starts Miss
Most Since January 2007, Permits Have Biggest Miss In History – ZH
June Was A Rough Month
For Housing Construction – The
Capital Spectator
Huge Misses in Housing
Starts and Building Permits – Bespoke
Two Measures of
Inflation: Headline and Core Remain Below Fed Target – dshort
ASIA
The IMF is forecasting
China's GDP will grow by a relatively optimistic
7.75% this year, but it acknowledges a number of risks.
No doubt there is real
and financial pain in China right now, but perhaps some moral credit is
owed to the Chinese leadership for deflating asset bubbles before they burst.
Recent experience tells us that a sudden leverage deflation after a very long
expansion would be far more painful and prolonged.
Full pdf here.
OTHER
"Asset price inflation" is not
inflation – Noahpinion
Bubbles Forever – Project
Syndicate
In 2006, the largest
global real-estate bubble in history imploded, and the collapse of a major
worldwide stock-market bubble a year later triggered the global financial
crisis. Although one might think that we have been living in a
"post-bubble" world since then, talk of new bubbles keeps
reappearing.
FINNISH
Kataisen
perilliset: Kokoomuksen puheenjohtaja miettii jo luopumista – SK
Euroopan
rikkaat "voivat joutua kansannousun kohteeksi" – TE