EUROPE
Making things impossible for Spain.
BoE can escape its
self-made forward guidance trap – Reuters
When the BoE linked monetary policy to the labour market, it was unduly
pessimistic about unemployment. Governor Mark Carney is now trying to fine tune
his message, but he could just simplify: rates will stay at record lows for a
while, whatever the jobless rate.
BLAME GERMANY
Rehn, Germany and US
Treasury Dept: Round Two – FT
Eurozone Morality
Plays
– mainly
macro
Evidence does suggest that seeing the competitiveness imbalances in the
Eurozone as simply the result of excess outside Germany is at best only half
the story, and at worst not a very realistic story at all.
SKEPTICS
Right-wing populists are trying to create a powerful faction in the
European Parliament. Leading the efforts are Geert Wilders from the Netherlands and Marine le Pen of
France -- and their
initiative has big implications for Europe.
Skeptics See Euro
Eroding European Unity – NYT
“This is what I was afraid of, that the euro would be preserved and it
would pervert the venture and destroy the European Union,” he said. “Instead of
the solidarity that was supposed to be embodied, it became every country by
itself.”
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Survey on the access
to finance of SMEs in the euro area – 4-9 2013 – ECB
Statistics Pocket
Book, November 2013 – ECB
Monthly Bulletin,
November 2013 – ECB
PIIGS
Portugal: Letter of
Intent, Memorandum – IMF
With bailout risk
building, Slovenian PM seeks to shore up support – Reuters
Slovenia's efforts to avert a bailout are likely to win the government a
confidence vote on Thursday, even though the cost of a bank clean-up risks
tipping the euro zone country's finances over the edge.
GDP NUMBERS
German growth normalization – Merkelnomics
German GDP meets
expectations, but French miss on investment – TradingFloor
France saw its economic
output decline in the third quarter as businesses were wary of investing, while
German GDP grew on the back of domestic demand. I expect the divergence to
continue going forward.
OECD issues warning
on French economy – FT
Euro area heading
back to recession? – Nordea
I cannot help but feeling that the Euro area is just one recession away
from a serious deflation problem.
Recovery loses momentum in Q3, expected to gain ground in 2014 – Danske
Bank
Narrowly Avoids Return To Contraction In Third Quarter Led By French
Weakness – ZH
Third-quarter growth falters – FT
German GDP Release Highlights Rebalancing – WSJ
Missing Piece in the Communication Strategy – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed is clearly
signalling they want to change the policy mix.
They are not clearly signalling why.
Kocherlakota effectively makes clear that the "why" has to do
with the cost/benefit calculus surrounding asset purchases. I would very much like Yellen to explain that
calculus in her Senate hearing, and wish someone would ask the question
directly. Probably not gonna happen.
YELLEN
Yellen Likely to Be
Grilled on Fed’s Regulatory Role – WSJ
What to Watch for in
the Yellen Hearing – WSJ
John Mauldin: Here’s
What the Senate Should Ask Janet Yellen – WSJ
Wall Street Offers
Primers on How to Read Yellen’s Testimony – WSJ
Testimony Vice Chair
Janet L. Yellen, Confirmation hearing – FED
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
Yellen's Remarks
Released Early – ZH
says “Fed has More Work To Do” Assuring More Dovishness
Yellen to defend
Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy – Reuters
Yellen vs. the Fed
critics – Reuters
During Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing, one sure criticism is
sharply at odds with the facts: That the Fed’s crisis response was an insider
affair, run by and for a handful of too-big-to-fail banks.
What to expect in
Yellen hearing: El-Erian – CNBC
MACRO NUMBERS
Market Reads too Much
into Yellen Prepared Remarks – Marc
to Market
Yellen's Testimony
Preview – ZH
Yellen's likely poker
face at nomination hearing may offer clues – TradingFloor
*****
Four Key Points From
Yellen on Tapering – WSJ
Yellen on Stocks:
This Isn’t a Bubble – WSJ
Hearing Post Mortem
(Dovish 32 : 18 Hawkish) – ZH
Janet Yellen’s Fed
confirmation hearing – FT
Yellen faced the
Senate today. Here’s everything you need to know – WaPo
Yellen: Balance
Budget Effort in 1990s Set Model for This Congress – WSJ
Initial Jobless Claims Miss Expectations For 6th Week In A Row – ZH
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 339,000 – ZH
Claims Still Fallling, But Rate Of Decline Slowing – Capital
Spectator
Jobless Claims Higher Than Expected – Bespoke
Trade Deficit increased in September to $41.8 Billion – Calculated
Risk
U.S. trade, labor data
underscore sluggish economy – Reuters
U.S. Trade Gap Widens
More Than Forecast to $41.8 Billion – BB
GDP growth halved in the third quarter. But investors are worried about
something else. One year after Shinzo Abe chalked out a path to revival, Japan is still awaiting
the structural reforms he promised. Without them, the effect of monetary and
fiscal stimulus could soon wane.
Predicting exchange rates is still an inexact science. Economic models
perform poorly, and a plethora of alternative methods have been attempted. This
column guides the reader through the state of the art, reviewing various
predictors, models, and data specifications. Despite a large and divergent
literature chasing this holy grail, the toughest benchmark remains the random
walk without drift.
FINNISH
Ekonomisti: Saksa tarvitsisi 3 prosentin
ohjauskoron 0,25 sijasta – Verkkouutiset
EU-vastaiset voimat vahvistuvat – tunnetut
oikeistopopulistit liittoon – HS
Tausta: EU-kriittisten kirjo on laaja – HS
Le Pen saa Sampo Terholta pakit – HS
Teollisuuden
liikevaihto supistui kesä-elokuussa runsaat 4% yoy – Tilastokeskus
Rakennusyritysten
liikevaihto väheni kesä-elok. hieman yoy – Tilastokeskus
Palvelualojen
liikevaihto kasvoi kesä-elokuussa 0,7% yoy – Tilastokeskus
Koko kaupan
myynti laski syyskuussa 0,5% yoy – Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden
tuotanto pieneni syyskuussa 2013 – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio
lokakuussa 1,2 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus