Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (updated)
KEVA
/ Merja Ailus / Keskusta special (updated)
EUROPE
Allowing for remaining bailout funds and existing deposits, this means Portugal could have to raise
€14bn in the market next year. Although the May 2014 deadline for issuing these
bonds was “tight”, Fitch said it remained “plausible”. If Portugal goes for an EU
credit line, it is expected to request a version that includes tough austerity
conditions that are similar to its current bailout
Monti acknowledges Merkel’s prudence – The
World / FT
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
France's awful PMI is the latest item in a string of terrible European macro
news pushing the European Central Bank to ease. But as the ECB lacks viable
tools, it can only make threats. Enter the test balloon.
An ECB Negative Deposit Rate? Don't Hold Your
Breath, Says Citi – ZH
Euro Surges As Mario
Draghi Scuttles Negative Rate Rumor – ZH
OECD warns of EZ
deflation risks; suggests ECB consider non-conventional measures– Sober
Look
Germany's dangerously patchy
recollection of interwar economic history risks making the euro zone crisis
worse
ECB debate comes
full circle back to QE again - but substantial obstacles remain – Open
Europe
ECB cacophony – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Speech by Mario Draghi – ECB
at Führungstreffen
Wirtschaft “Strategies for more growth” organised by Süddeutsche Zeitung,
Berlin, 21 November 2013.
MARKIT PMI
Euro PMIs point to
higher GDP growth in Q4 – Danske
Bank
French private sector economy slips back into contraction – Markit
German Manufacturing PMI hits highest level for almost two-and-a-half
years – Markit
EZ PMI signals slowing growth for second successive month in November – Markit
UNITED STATES
Goldman on minutes:
"Relatively Neutral" But "December Taper Possible" – ZH
The Tapir Strikes
Again
– ZH
As Fed Searches for
Solutions, Its Power Wanes – WSJ
Did Bill Dudley Just
Unveil The Fed's Real Taper "Scapegoat" Plan? – ZH
Desperate to Taper – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Clear evidence of the space we have been in for months. The Fed wants to taper, and is becoming
increasingly nervous they will need to pull the trigger on that option before
the data allows. That means that
tapering is not data dependent. That
means the policy deck is stacked with at least one wild card. And that sounds like a recipe for the kind of
volatility the Fed is looking to avoid.
The Taper Wolf at the
Door
– Project
Syndicate
Last spring, the mere
possibility that the Fed might reduce its purchases of long-term assets – the
so-called “taper” – sent market interest rates in the US soaring and currencies in several emerging countries
plummeting. Following an unexpected reprieve, investors are again asking what
will happen when the Fed follows through.
ASIA
China: HSBC PMI declines
but too early to call peak – Danske
Bank
China Flash PMI Drops Most
In 6 Months – ZH
Macro Viewpoint: A surprise fall in Chinese PMI – Nordea
The markets may be missing a trick in neglecting the importance of China’s recent turn
towards liberalisation. But not necessarily for the reason most people think.
OTHER
Goldman's Top Ten
2014 Market Themes – ZH
European FI Strategy
– The heat is on – Nordea
To QE or not to QE, the question for the Fed, and soon maybe the ECB…EUR: More easing on the cards for the
ECB and curves have turned segmented again. Inflation has turned into a hot
topic in the Euro zone and 10yr inflation swap levels look oversold SEK: The heat is on as we head into
another uncertain Riksbank meeting in December. DKK: Inflation is record low but we expect the tide to turn. NOK: We have changed our Norges Bank
call and now expect the central bank to cut twice next year.
Great Graphic: GDP
and GDP Per Capita International Comparison – Marc
to Market
EMEA Weekly – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Suomen talouden haasteet (se alkuperäisempi
versio) – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Hallitus käänsi kelkkansa ja listaa sittenkin
haitalliset EU-lait –
HS
EU vie Suomen oikeuteen – TE
Patistaa
maksamaan muista maista tuleville työttömille korvausta saman tien
Potkujen aikaa – Jyrki
Virolainen
Yllättävä huomio: ”Euroalueesta on tulossa
Venetsia” – US
Suomen
talouden tilanne ei huolestuta skotlantilaisen varainhoitojätti Standard Life
Investmentsin päästrategia ja arvostettua ekonomistia Andrew Milligania.