Here
are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
EUROPE
A
Schuman compact for the euro area – Bruegel
Efforts to turn the crisis into a spur for “an ever closer union” have met
with political resistance to the surrender of fiscal sovereignty. If such a
union remains elusive, a perpetual muddling ahead risks generating economic and
political dysfunction. It may be time to recognize and render more effective
the de facto decentralisation in Europe.
2014 draft budget
views
– EC
Désillusion – The Economist
French increasingly think Europe is a problem, not a
solution.
GERMANY
Europe’s economic rules: Brussels v Berlin – The Economist
The fuss over Germany’s surplus misses the
point.
German
Court Won’t
Rule This Year on Legality of ECB Bond Buying – WSJ
German growth not low
enough to trigger policy change – Nordea
Domestic-led
third-quarter growth bolsters Germany in showdown over trade – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB ready to print, Germany ready to scream – The Telegraph
The doves are seizing control of the ECB. They are already laying the
ground work for a blitz of Anglo-Saxon QE, whatever the Germans, Dutch,
Austrians, and Finns (?) have to say about such wicked Latin conduct.
Deflationary risks
rising in the Eurozone; time for LTRO redux? – Sober Look
Draghi’s
Rate Cut Puts ECB Into Holding Pattern Until Next Year – BB
While a majority in a
Bloomberg survey say the ECB’s most probable next move is a measure such as
long-term loans, 77 percent of those see it happening in the first or second
quarter of 2014. Just 9 percent see Draghi taking action in December.
Is
the price stability target of the ECB at risk? – Money Matters
OECD
calls on ECB to buy euro zone assets – Reuters
The ECB must consider buying government and corporate bonds to help the euro
zone avoid a Japanese-style deflationary spiral, the OECD said on Tuesday.
ECB
debate comes full circle back to QE again - but substantial obstacles remain – Open Europe
France’s
swan song turns the ECB into a dove – TradingFloor
France's awful PMI is the latest item in a string of terrible European macro
news pushing the European Central Bank to ease. But as the ECB lacks viable
tools, it can only make threats. Enter the test balloon.
Mario Draghi speech “The
future of Europe” – ECB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
The Only Two Charts
That Matter For The Fed – ZH
Fed now owns a third or 32.47% of all 10 Year equivalents… now monetizing a record 70% of all net US 10 Year
equivalent issuance.
Fed
Ponders How to Temper Tapering Without Rate Increase – BB
One of Janet Yellen’s first challenges as chairman will be figuring out
how to cushion against a lurch in interest rates when she pares the pace of the
central bank’s bond buying.
About That
Unemployment Threshold.... – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
The issue of the thresholds is a hot topic at the Fed, but there is
hesitancy to pull the trigger on the option of changing the threshold. They are not yet ready to chance signaling a
change in the reaction function. And
given that unemployment remains well above the threshold, there is no rush to
change the threshold as long as the market believes it is not a trigger. This seems to be a message Bernanke is
sending in this speech.
Desperate to Taper – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Clear evidence of the space we have been in for months. The Fed wants to taper, and is becoming
increasingly nervous they will need to pull the trigger on that option before
the data allows. That means that
tapering is not data dependent. That
means the policy deck is stacked with at least one wild card. And that sounds like a recipe for the kind of
volatility the Fed is looking to avoid.
OTHER
OECD
Cuts Global Growth Outlook on Emerging-Market Slowdown – BB
Global
economy recovering at moderate pace but more risks ahead – OECD
Goldman's
Top Ten 2014 Market Themes – ZH
European FI Strategy
– The heat is on – Nordea
To QE or not to QE, the question for the Fed, and soon maybe the ECB…EUR: More easing on the cards for the
ECB and curves have turned segmented again. Inflation has turned into a hot
topic in the Euro zone and 10yr inflation swap levels look oversold SEK: The heat is on as we head into
another uncertain Riksbank meeting in December. DKK: Inflation is record low but we expect the tide to turn. NOK: We have changed our Norges Bank
call and now expect the central bank to cut twice next year.
FINNISH
Valtio-opin professori
haukkuu hallituksen salakähmäisyyttä EU-asioissa – HS
Asiantuntija
vertaa Suomen avoimuutta EU-asioiden päätöksenteossa Vatikaaniin
Valtioneuvoston selonteko
EU-politiikasta 2013
– VNK
Saksalaisten pakkomielle
inflaation suhteen olisi koomista jos se ei olisi niin vaarallista – Tyhmyri
Saksa on
tyypillisen epäsolidaarinen
"Pääomakontrollit ovat
kuin vahva lääke" – TalSa
Taloussanomat
tapasi Islannin keskuspankin pääjohtajan Mar Gudmundssonin Ateenassa. Pääjohtaja
puhui pääomakontrolleista sekä Islannin pankkikriisin opetuksista Euroopalle.
Jan Hurri: Europäättäjät
eivät usko vuosisataisia kriisiläksyjä – TalSa
Velkakriisien
historian juurta jaksain tuntevat talousprofessorit Carmen Reinhart ja Kenneth
Rogoff väittävät tuoreessa tutkimuksessaan, että europäättäjät ovat virheillään
pahentaneet ja yhä pahentavat velkakriisiä. Kriisiä ei ole pitkittänyt
"eurokriittisten voimien" nousu vaan se, että päättäjät eivät
vieläkään ymmärrä kriisin laatua. (CEPR-artikkeli)
Ykkösaamu: Talouden
tasapainottumista ei näkyvissä – YLE
EU-komissio
ei ole vakuuttunut, että Suomi pääsee irti velkavetoisesta taloudenhoidostaan.
Studiossa Valtiontalouden tarkastusviraston pääjohtaja Tuomas Pöysti. Sitten
läpivalaisuun tapaukset Solidium ja Keva sekä niiden valvonta. Vieraina
eduskunnan tarkastusvaliokunnan puheenjohtaja, vihreiden kansanedustaja Tuija
Brax ja kokoomuksen kansanedustaja Ben Zyskowicz.
Brysselin kone:
EU-tyytymättömyyttä ilmassa – YLE
Mitä
tiedämme kansalaisten mielipiteistä EU:ssa ja EU:sta? Haastateltavana on
toimialajohtaja Juhani Pehkonen TNS Gallupista ja toimittajana Maija Elonheimo