Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Europe is making the same mistakes that Japan did during the 1990s and as a result is likely
to suffer a similarly prolonged period of stagnant growth, a paper argues.
Austerity and
stupidity – voxeu.org
Today’s austerity, many argue, is stupid. This column argues that
today’s EZ austerity may arise from stupidity before the crisis – specifically
lacklustre structural reform. Excess debt arose in nations maintaining
unsustainable living standards and welfare systems in the face of poor growth.
The Crisis forced radical adjustments such as austerity in a recession. It’s
not austerity which caused low growth, but low pre-Crisis growth which
ultimately caused austerity. The way out of austerity is fundamental pro-growth
reforms that create room for more gradual fiscal adjustment.
Press release here.
The European Banking
Disunion – Project
Syndicate
The future of the eurozone depends crucially on whether Europe’s financial markets
“renationalize” or become fully integrated. But either outcome would be preferable
to partial integration – which is where the eurozone appears to be headed.
GERMANY
The modern
Deutschmark – FT
The German trade
surplus may widen with the euro-area recovery – Bruegel
The polarisation of
the German party system in the 2013 elections and the disappearance of the FDP
explain the country’s tortuous coalition negotiations – Europp
/ LSE
German Economic Model
Wins Backing in Merkel Coalition Talks – BB
Policymakers would like to normalize policy by moving away from asset
purchases to interest rates. Emphasizing
forward guidance is part of that process.
Incoming research suggests not only that threshold based forward
guidance is effective, but has room to be even more effective. Indeed, the
current low level of unemployment relative to the threshold, combined with
clear indications that the Fed has no intention of raising rates anytime soon,
argues by itself that a change in the thresholds is a likely scenario in the
months ahead.
2017? – Tim Duy’s Fed
Watch
Be wary of assuming that a change in the unemployment threshold to 5.5%
implies the Federal Reserve intends to keep rates near zero into 2017. The results of the English et al. (2013)
paper suggests a much smaller change in expectations for the timing of the
first rate hike from such a policy shift.
Fed wonk special, now
with Q&A – FT
Some prominent Fed Reserve Board staffers recently put out two weighty
papers in advance of the 4th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference which is
hosted by the IMF starting on Thursday (today).
On escaping the zero
lower bound – The Economist
For forward guidance to have any impact on the economy, markets must
believe that rates will stay close to zero even as growth and inflation pick
up, thus making current borrowing and investment more attractive than they
otherwise would be.
Q3 GDP
Roars To 2.8% Despite Weakest Consumer In Over Two Years – ZH
+2.8% y-o-y in Q3 – Calculated
Risk
Analysis: Not Really Telling a Better Story – WSJ
Inventories Swell GDP; Will They Meet Q4 Sales? – WSJ
Advance Estimate Rises to 2.8% - dshort
Vital Signs: Solid GDP Rate Masks Shaky Details – WSJ
Economists React: ‘Some Concerning Undertones’ in GDP Gain – WSJ
Delivers An Upside Surprise – The
Capital Spectator
Growth slightly above Expectations, but Weak Personal consumption – Calculated
Risk
How GDP Report Shows Government Dragging on Growth – WSJ
China's Communist
Party has promised us a "master plan". The Third Plenum of the 18th
Party Congress this weekend will launch the next great leap forward, propelling
China into the world's top league of hi-tech affluence.
Understanding
Emerging Market Banks: A new eBook – voxeu.org
New micro-level data sets allow better testing of existing and new hypotheses on how banks operate in the often challenging environment of emerging markets. This column introduces an eBook that reports on the findings of a recent conference in London on using different research methodologies and data sources in banking research.
New micro-level data sets allow better testing of existing and new hypotheses on how banks operate in the often challenging environment of emerging markets. This column introduces an eBook that reports on the findings of a recent conference in London on using different research methodologies and data sources in banking research.
EMEA Weekly, Week 46 – Danske
Bank
OPEC World Oil Outlook
2013
– OPEC
OPEC says will lose
oil market share to shale, rivals – Reuters
Inflation, deflation
and QE, redux – Coppola
Comment
Soc Gen have looked at QE.....and they have concluded that its effects
may indeed be deflationary. Their reasoning is somewhat different from mine.
Jos Suomessa
– tai pääkaupunkiseudulla – olisi nyt asuntojen hintakupla, sen puhkeaminen
voisi olla useimmille lähes yhdentekevä tai jopa hyödyllinen. Ekonomistin mukaan
Suomessa on vallalla "käsittämätön" ajatus, että asumisen on oltava
koko ajan kalliimpaa.
Menikö peruskoulu metsään? – TalSa
Suomen koulujärjestelmä
saa jatkuvasti kehuja. Taannoisen lehtijutun mukaan oppilaiden perustaidot
kuitenkin heikentyvät. Eikä korkeakoulututkintokaan enää varmista työpaikkaa.
Menikö jotain kenties vikaan?
Evan pamfletti: Tuloerojen kasvulle ei voi
mitään – TalSa
Elinkeinoelämän
valtuuskunnan (Eva) uuden pamfletin mukaan tuloeroja ja niiden kasvua tuskin
voidaan estää. Kirjoittajien mielestä tuloerojen kanssa pitää osata elää, ja lopettaa
verotiedoilla märehtiminen.
Henkisestä kestävyysvajeesta – Akateeminen talousblogi
Himasen pamfletti loukkaa tieteentekijän
oikeustajua – Professorin
ajatuksia