As requested, here's something on China.
What makes this chart so special: 2000-2008 export-led growth. When crisis hit, domestic credit was increased massively. Now there is no large export surplus, and debt is very high. No way out but to deleverage slowly. Also means no more fixed investments for a long time. Banks' bad loans at post-crisis high.
PRICES
iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI), Chart
SHIBOR interest rates, charts (slow)
Macrodata on Tradingeconomics
18-MAR
Monitor: Chinese Credit Crunch – Danske Bank
The house that China built – FT
17-MAR
China: PBoC widens daily
trading band to +/-2% - Danske Bank
PBOC Widens Trading Bans – ZH
Yuan Tumbles to 11-Month Low as Band Widening Spurs Volatility – BB
China's yuan dips in
widened band, but scope for big swings seen limited – Reuters
16-MAR
China is shaking, sending
ripples from Perth to Peru – George Magnus
Is the PBOC driving up the euro? – FT
Big investment banks
rush to cut China growth forecasts – MarketWatch
China Bond Risk Exceeds Ireland as Defaults Unavoidable – BB
China Is Prepared for Rough Economy Ahead, Li Says – BusinessWeek
China’s Big Four Banks See $70 Billion Vanish From Stocks – BB
China and the Dangers of
Debt – House of Debt
China’s banking: March of
the banks – The Economist
13-MAR
Ranking EM
vulnerability to China – FT
In summary, the emerging markets most vulnerable to a slowdown in Chinese
fixed asset investment are several Latin American economies, Russia and South Africa. In contrast,
Hungary, the Philippines, Poland and Mexico seem fairly well positioned.
GDP growth to fall – Danske Bank
Weak data suggests GDP growth could drop below government’s 7.5% growth
target as soon as Q1
Economists React: China’s Slowdown Confirmed, but no Hard Landing – WSJ
10-MAR
Exports slowing
albeit far from as dramatic as headline numbers suggest – Danske Bank
9-MAR
China's credit markets
under pressure – Sober Look
Copper Posts Biggest Decline Since 2011 on China Demand Concern – BB
China Heralding $1.5
Trillion Emerging Debt Wall: Credit Markets – BB
China Gets First Onshore
Bond Default as Chaori Misses Payment – BB
Maybe China’s a Bigger Worry
than the Fed – WSJ
Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record
– ZH
Search for China’s “Bear Stearns
moment” is flawed – Reuters
Morgan Stanley: Developed World Could be Hit Hard if EM Stumbles – WSJ
6-MAR
Economists React: China’s Mission Impossible? – WSJ
With China's legislature
meeting in Beijing, officials are setting
out their goals for the year and offering a rare degree of press access in a
flurry of news briefings. Economists weigh in.
EM’s dark debt
squeeze exposure – FT
We have of course been here before. During the subprime crisis
unexpected sums of dark debt emerged from off-balance sheet bank liabilities,
SIVs and such the like. The impact, as we all now know, was immense. But
there’s a very good reason to suspect that “dark debt” hasn’t gone away
entirely.
3-MAR
Emerging Market
Banking Crises Are Next – James Gruber
Chinese whispers * The great economic rebalancing * More EM drama to
come * Winners and losers
Will emerging markets come back? – mpettis
Emerging markets may
well rebound strongly in the coming months, but any rebound will face the same ugly
arithmetic. Ordinary households in too many countries have seen their share of
total GDP plunge. Until it rebounds, the global imbalances will only remain in
place, and without a global New Deal, the only alternative to weak demand will
be soaring debt. Add to this continued political uncertainty, not just in the
developing world but also in peripheral Europe, and it is clear that we should expect
developing country woes only to get worse over the next two to three years.
28-FEB
Charts point to more downside
for emerging markets – MarketWatch
China’s Growth Puzzle – Project Syndicate
Stephen S. Roach: Though China’s economy is now slowing, the
significance of this is not well understood. The downturn has nothing to do
with problems in other emerging economies; in fact, it is a welcome
development.
China Must End Its GDP Worship – View / BB
Markets bear some responsibility for trapping China into reckless
borrowing and lending. Just yesterday, Templeton Emerging Markets Group warned
of civil unrest in China should GDP slow to
below 6 percent. These kinds of scare statements box investors into a mind-set
that China is just a percentage
point or two away from becoming Ukraine.
26-FEB
Monitor: Chinese
Credit Crunch – Danske Bank
Money market rates have plunged in recent weeks, suggesting that
People’s Bank of
China has de facto started
easing.
24-FEB
China's home price rises ease for first time in 14 months – Reuters
4 signs of economic
slowdown in China – Sober Look
…and how it could make a slowdown even uglier
Five
charts to explain China’s shadow banking system – Quartz
…and how it could make a slowdown even uglier
20-FEB
What if China Does Land Hard? – WSJ
Over the last two weeks, several major investment houses have published
reports exploring the idea of a hard economic landing in China. They include “We
don’t expect it to happen” caveats. But what if it did happen? Would the rest
of the world tank as well?
China a Growing Worry Among Fund Managers, BofA Survey
Finds
– WSJ
18-FEB
Is renewed surge in
credit forcing PBoC to tighten further? – Danske Bank
PBOC Drains Funds
Using Repos for First Time in 8 Months – BB
15-FEB
China Banks’ Bad Loans Reach Highest Since Financial Crisis – BB