Yellen spoke (dovish), euro area's inflation in March fell to alarmingly low 0.5 percent (ECB meeting next Thursday) and a new book from Michael Lewis.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
W/E: Weekly Support (updated)
EUROPE
France’s National
Front: On the march – The
Economist
Marine Le Pen’s success should serve as a warning to the political elite
in France and across Europe.
Has the EUR hit its
biggest sell since inception? – TradingFloor
Lars Seier Christensen (co-founder
& CEO, Saxo Bank) has been surprised by the EUR's resilience over the past
few months, but that doesn't change his belief that reality and gravity will
finally return to the world’s largest market.
BOE’s Bailey: Stress Tests Will Look at
Housing Risks – WSJ
An upcoming health check of British banks will test whether lenders can
withstand a collapse of the housing market, a senior Bank of England official
said Monday, amid concern the U.K. may be at risk of
experiencing a new real-estate bubble.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB and US Jobs
Dominate the Markets Next Week – Marc
to Market
ECB: The tone of official comments has turned more dovish and the BBK
appears to have eased its opposition to QE. However, the ECB still refuses to
recognize risks of deflation and sees "light at the end of the
tunnel"… Surveys suggest an
overwhelming majority do not expect the ECB to cut rates. Jobs: The shift in the Fed's forward guidance may encourage a
change in the market's focus. We suggest that average hourly earnings may be of
greater importance than the market often attributes to it.
ECB room for
manoeuvre capped despite growing disinflation threat – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: Realised inflation continues falling, but the ECB may
find the options available in its toolbox to effect any change is limited. As
ever, it should be able to draw on a large reservoir of excuses, but its
credibility is in danger of running out.
Why is the ECB
hesitating on monetary easing? – Sober
Look
Ultimately the ECB could be right and some day, as the banking system is
"restructured", the Eurozone's economy will heal itself. But that was
also the attitude in Japan years ago when the
nation undertook its banking reform. Yet deflation in Japan persisted for years
since then, becoming heavily entrenched in the economy. Is the ECB now willing
to take that chance?
Spain, the ECB and the power of talk – Forbes
Frances Coppola: I do not expect the ECB to do any significant easing at the moment. But
that doesn’t mean they won’t continue to talk about it. After all, signalling
has worked well so far.
Euro zone banks slow crisis loan returns as
extra cash falls – Reuters
The pace at which euro
zone banks are repaying their crisis loans to the European Central Bank has
slowed significantly as extra cash in the system reaches critically low levels.
Why Draghi might
wait, despite shock eurozone inflation news – TradingFloor
German fin min
expects ECB rates to rise: Der Spiegel – Reuters
ECB's Weidmann says
euro zone not in deflationary cycle – Reuters
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Russian propaganda:
1984 in 2014 – The
Economist
The future of NATO:
First principles – The
Economist
Russia’s annexation of Crimea has brought NATO a
renewed purpose.
President Putin’s
economic Achilles heel – FT
As a result of the crisis, the economy now stands on the brink of
outright recession, the first in any of the BRIC economies since 2009…Whether
the global financial markets could turn a blind eye to this crisis if Russian
troops enter the eastern Ukraine seems doubtful. But, in any likely
eventuality, President Putin must know that the Russia would be the main
economic loser.
MACRO NUMBERS
Euro area annual inflation down to 0.5% - Eurostat
ECB credibility – FT
Euro inflation declined to a new cycle low of 0.5% - Danske
Bank
Great Graphic: Breakdown of EMU February and March CPI – Marc
to Market
Euro zone inflation drops to lowest since 2009 – Reuters
Euro Inflation at Lowest in Over 4 Years Misses Estimates – BB
Imported Deflation and a New Currency War? – Marc
to Market
Inflation drop pins peripheral bond yields at multi-year lows – Reuters
IMF calls for ECB efforts to tackle 'low-flation' – Reuters
European Inflation Slides To Lowest Since 2009 – ZH
UNITED STATES
YELLEN SPEECH
5 Reasons Why Janet Yellen Still Sees Slack in Economy – WSJ
Janet Yellen
Gives ‘One of the Most Dovish Speeches I Have Ever Read’ – WSJ
Stocks Surge As Yellen Goes Uber-Dovish – ZH
Yellen backs dovish stance – Reuters
How Our Big Banks
Really Make Their Money – BB
The eight biggest U.S. banks earned more
than $80 billion last year, with much of that coming from government subsidies,
according to a new report from the IMF..
What's wrong with the
Fed?
– The
Economist
Since the Fed [declared its goal}, PCE inflation has been below target
roughly 90% of the time. It was just 0.9% in the most recent data release, and
markets believe inflation will remain below target for the foreseeable future.
Chicago PMI Plunges To 7-Month Lows, Misses By Most In A Year – ZH
Chicago PMI declines to 55.9 – Calculated Risk
Chicago PMI declines to 55.9 – Calculated Risk
ASIA
Japan factory output
contracts, dims growth outlook as tax hike looms – Reuters
Output unexpectedly fell in February at the fastest pace in eight
months, leaving the economy in a precarious position as an impending sales tax
hike threatens to choke consumption and undermine the government's revival
plan.
Is Abenomics Working?
– FT
A recent paper argues that Abenomics has been successful in generating monetary
regime change, and that this has lead to an increase in output — but much more
work is left to be done.
The five biggest Chinese banks, which account for more than half of all
loans in the country, removed Rmb59bn ($9.5bn) from their books in debts that
could not be collected, according to their 2013 results. That was up 127 per
cent from 2012, and the highest since the banks were rescued from insolvency,
recapitalised and publicly listed over the past decade.
Global banks issue
alerts on China carry trade as Fed tightens and yuan falls – The
Telegraph
Citigroup tells clients to brace for second phase of the "taper
tantrum" that rocked emerging markets last year, but this time with China
at the eye of the storm
Slump in China
property sales adds to default concerns – FT
Sales volumes during the first 23 days of March were down 34 per cent
from the same period a year earlier.
Why China Will Not
Dominate the 21st Century – CFA
Institute
Will China Dominate the 21st
Century?, published this month, tackles the question head-on. Despite the
title, it’s not an open question; rather, it is a treatise on why China will not dominate the 21st Century.
China Defaults Sow
Property Cash Crunch Concern: Distressed Debt – BB
While Steen Jakobsen loves Australia, he says the country
is in economic denial despite the government of Prime Minister Tony Abbott
attempting to reign in some of the excesses.
OTHER
Introducing Saxo
equity pair trades – TradingFloor
We introduce a new publication on www.TradingFloor.com that will provide
weekly pair trade candidates from a select list of well-known equities from the
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Euro STOXX 600 indices.
Saxo equity pair
trades: Insurance play tops list – TradingFloor
Weekly top 10 of potential pair trades from top equity indices * Insurance
pair Swiss Life Holding, Aviva head list * Mean-reversion potential in two
Hollywood giants
John Hardy: The last day of the Japanese financial year is seeing a swan
dive of JPY weakness. EURUSD remains cagey ahead of the heavy US data calendar
this week and the ECB meeting on Thursday.
A global election
pile-up in May – FT
NYSE Margin Debt Hits
Another Record High – dshort
MICHAEL LEWIS
Michael Lewis Views Market as ‘Rigged’ in Favor of High-Speed Traders – NYT
Full circle idealism, the HFT story – FT
“The Stock Market is Rigged!” – The
Reformed Broker
"The Market Is Rigged" - Michael Lewis Explains How HFTs
"Screw" Investors – ZH
High-Speed Traders Rip Investors Off, Michael Lewis Says – BB
Michael Lewis: The Stock Market Is Rigged – WSJ
Stock markets are rigged: Michael Lewis – Reuters
Speed Trading in a Rigged Market – View
/ BB
Michael Lewis Doesn't Like High-Frequency Traders – View
/ BB
FINNISH
Mikä painaa Suomen tavaravientiä? – Roger
Wessman
Deflaatiouhka ei kasvanut euroalueella – Roger
Wessman
Euroalueella ei tarvitse pelätä inflaatiota
eli hinnat eivät ainakaan nouse – tosin deflaatio nostaa rumaa päätään – Tyhmyri
Näin EKP nitisti yritysrahoituksen – Talouden
Tulkki
Suomi sosialisoidaan – Jo riittää – Pauli
Vahtera / IL
Halpaa puhetta – Henri Myllyniemi
/ US
Eurostat
kertoi, että juna kohti deflatorista lamaa ohitti juuri yhden pysäkin
pysähtymättä.