EUROPE
Brussels
blog round up 22 – 28 February – Europp
/ LSE
Merkel in the UK, visa waivers for the UAE, and how
should the EU engage with Russia over Ukraine?
Germany: 2% GDP
growth in 2015 despite adverse employment policy – DB
Research
The details of the
0.4% qoq GDP increase released this week have not altered our GDP forecast of
1.5% for 2014. If anything, they have added to our suspicion that current
surveys (corporate and consumer) might paint a too rosy picture. However, we
have turned somewhat more optimistic with regard to 2015, increasing our GDP
forecast from 1.4% to 2.0%.
Euro Inflation Research
No 5: ECB will ease again... and again – Danske
Bank
We have a strong conviction of additional easing from the ECB.
Great Britain used to play a key
role in leading Europe, and the benefits have been substantial. But
now, the UK is turning its back
on the EU and has chosen to focus on peripheral issues. It is the wrong move.
CRISIS COUNTRIES
The canary lived, but
it’s still suffering from the aftereffects of being sent into the mine in the
first place.
Italy Unemployment
Rises to Record High in Challenge for Renzi – BB
UKRAINE
Authorization Comes in Defiance of Warnings Not to Intervene
Ana Palacio: One could be tempted to view the overthrow of Ukraine's government as a
signal that the country is entering a new era, moving inexorably away from Russia and into the
European democratic fold. But Ukraine remains subject to
deep internal cleavages and conflicting geopolitical forces that could easily
thwart that trajectory.
Never say never again
- will the geopolitics of the Ukraine crisis influence gas flows to Europe? – Nordea
Revealed: The
forgotten treaty which could drag the US and UK into WAR with Russia if Putin's troops intervene in Ukraine – The
Daily Mail
Meet the Journalists Exposing
Yanukovych's Deepest, Wettest Secrets – Foreign
Policy
Putin goes to war – The
New Yorker
With rapidly shrinking
currency reserves and a capital flight problem, Ukraine faces an uncertain financial future. The IMF
plans to send a "fact-finding mission" to Kiev next week, but will it be enough?
Putin's War in Crimea
Could Soon Spread to Eastern Ukraine And
nobody—not the U.S., not
NATO—can stop him – New
Republic
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
Economists warn of
more market 'tantrums' as U.S. Fed tightens – Reuters
urbulence on Wall Street will likely return when the Federal Reserve
decides to hike interest rates, top U.S. economists said in a
paper that warned the Fed's huge stimulus program could have harmful
consequences.
Revisiting the Fed’s
Crisis
– Project
Syndicate
J. Bradford DeLong: Reading through the just-released transcripts of the
Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2008, one is
compelled to ask a single, overarching question: What accounted for the FOMC’s
blinkered mindset as crisis erupted all around it?
Who’s Afraid of
Tapering? – Project
Syndicate
Koichi Hamada: The Federal Reserve’s exit from quantitative easing has
financial markets and policymakers worried, with warnings of capital-flow
reversals and collapsing asset prices dominating policy discussions worldwide.
But, given that most major economies operate under a flexible exchange-rate
regime, such concerns are largely unwarranted.
Fed’s Evans Is Willing to Risk Higher Inflation to Boost Hiring – WSJ
Fed’s Plosser: Models Hint Rates Should Rise ‘Very Soon’ – WSJ
Too much flexibility could risk efficacy of Fed policy –Plosser – Reuters
Fed's Stein: big bond funds bear watching for stability risk – Reuters
Fed's Kocherlakota: policy must heed financial stability risks – Reuters
OTHER
Forward Guidance is
not Forward Commitment – mainly
macro
Why no central banks during this recession have tried forward
commitment. A closely related question is why no central banks have established
price level or nominal GDP targets.
Deflation is not
benign
– Coppola
Comment
In an economy where the money supply depends on the production of debt,
deflation can never be a good thing. In fact as any cyclist can tell you,
deflation means you aren't going anywhere.
Inside Wall Street’s
Frat: Kappa Beta Phi – WSJ
Wall Street’s secretive fraternity is getting a bit of attention this
month, thanks to Kevin Roose’s new “Young Money.” The book, which details the
mundane experiences of eight young Wall Street bankers, devotes a chapter to
Kappa Beta Phi and its 80th induction dinner in 2012.
The Real Reason
Nobody Reads Academics – View
/ BB
If academia was easier to keep up with, I think a lot of academics would
be surprised to learn how many journalists care about their work, and I think a
lot of journalists would be happy to find how much academic research can do for
their stories.
Robert Shiller says
markets have become more prone to bubbles – Institutional
Investor
The Nobel laureate contends that investors need to study human nature
and history, and avoid falling victim to groupthink.
Emerging Markets Look
Appetizing…Again – WSJ
OFF-TOPIC
Welcome to Googletown – The
Verge
Here's how a city becomes company property
The Benjamin Franklin
Effect
– brain
pickings
The Surprising Psychology of How
to Handle Haters: “He that has once done
you a kindness will be more ready to do you another, than he whom you yourself
have obliged.”
The Space Age Never
Looked Brighter Than It Did in the Mid-1960s – io9
The Mind-Blowing
Hungarian Posters for All Your Favorite Movies – io9
Inventor Waits 43
Years for Another Chance to Shock Tech – BB
The Conspiracy Theory
Is True: Agents Infiltrate Websites Intending To "Manipulate, Deceive, And
Destroy Reputations" – ZH
What will life be
like when digital brains outnumber humans? – io9
Which movie was just
too ahead of its time to be appreciated? – io9
The dystopia of 1984
is no longer relevant – io9
GCHQ Revealed: Inside
Her Majesty's Listening Service – Spiegel
The Snowden files have brought the shocking espionage activities of the UK's Government
Communications Headquarters into the open. Former employees describe an agency
with shifting goals, a strong honor code -- and an inferiority complex.
FINNISH
"Suomelle riittää
vapaakauppaliitto" – Verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaisten
puheenjohtaja Timo Soini saneeraisi EU:n eikä eurokaan ole kiveen hakattu
kysymys.
"Olipa hyvä ettei uskottu niitä jotka
huusivat, että antaa Kreikan kaatua" – Verkkouutiset
Pääministeri
Jyrki Kataisen mukaan Kreikan taloudessa on tapahtunut edistystä, mutta maalla
on vielä pitkä matka turvallisille vesille.
"Populistinen oikeisto haluaa
vastakkainasettelua Euroopan kansojen välille" – Verkkouutiset
http://www.verkkouutiset.fi/politiikka/lapintie_populistit-16665
Tässä tulee virkamieshallitus – Jouko
Marttila
Keskuspankki ei voi olla valtion rahoituksen lähde – Tuomas
Malinen / US
Eurotalous kiristää vyötä kummastakin päästä – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Euroalue toipuu
talouskriisistä muita talousmahteja hitaammin ja vaisummin. Tämä ei ole sattuma
vaan rahaliiton rakennevikojen ja talouspolitiikan syytä. Näin sanoo
eurotalouteen erikoistunut tutkija. Hän patistaa euromaita korjaamaan
virheensä. Keinoja on kaksi: liittovaltio tai jäähyväiset eurolle.
FT: Suomen ja Saksan muistio syyttää komissiota hämäristä
toimista – TalSa
Suomen ja Saksan valtiovarainministeriöt ovat
toimittaneet Brysseliin kiukkuisen muistion komission toimista budjettikurin
höllentämiseksi, Financial Times kertoo.
Taloutta kuvina 3-Suomi ja EU – Auvo
Rouvinen / US
Kreikan kaatumista vaatineet olivat väärässä – Ilkka
Partanen / US
Ehkä paras
tiivistys siitä, miksi Kokoomus on nykyisin ihan pihalla ja sekaisin. Katso
myös kommenttiketju.
UKRAINA
Putin pyytää
lupaa käyttää sotilaallista voimaa Ukrainassa
Venäjän
presidentti Vladimir Putin on pyytänyt lupaa maan parlamentin ylähuoneelta.
Ylähuoneen puheenjohtaja on sanonut rajoitetun joukko-osaston lähettämisen
olevan mahdollista.
Näin Venäjän hyökkäys Ukrainaan alkaisi:
Desantit iskevät maalta, mereltä ja ilmasta – SK
Tutkija:
Putin haluaa muuttaa Euroopan voimatasapainon.
Ukrainan armeija määrätty taisteluvalmiuteen – YLE
Venäjä parlamentin ylähuone hyväksyi
voimatoimet Ukrainassa
– YLE
Tuomioja: Venäjän toimet loukkaavat
kansainvälistä oikeutta
– HS
Turvallisuusneuvosto hätäkokoukseen Ukrainan
tilanteesta – HS
Kun apu on suurin... – Jukka
Hankamäki
Arvoisat kriminaalit – Jaskan
puhantaa
Ukraina halkeaa ja tuottaa Eurooppaan vaikeaa – Valtteri
Ahti / Evli / TalSa
Eput sen
tiesivät. Ukraina tulisi jakaa itäiseen ja läntiseen osaan. Kansallisvaltion
pilkkominen on edelleen tabu, johon tartutaan vain pakon edessä.