EUROPE
Draghi vs. Todd on
the future of Europe – Craig
Willy
Mario Draghi gave a big speech at Sciences Po Paris [this week]
explaining what mistakes were made in the euro-boom and euro-crisis years. It
makes a lot of interesting points and is almost Kruschev-like as far as regime
self-criticism goes.
France is the ‘sick
man of Europe’ – Reuters
Disenchantment with the EU is now sweeping France. The mainstream
parties, where the official position has long been supportive of the EU, are
challenged to be more skeptical.
Eurosceptics will
have election success, impact in European Parliament limited – Europp
/ LSE
While Eurosceptic parties such as UKIP in the UK, the Front National in
France, and the PVV in the Netherlands may come out on top of their national
votes, there are real obstacles to them actively influencing the work of the
parliament itself. Ultimately the main issue may be whether they can use the
platform gained in 2014 to secure real power in the next European elections in
2019.
The Eiffel group: ‘A
political community of the euro’ – voxeu.org
The recent crisis has highlighted some problems in the current structure
of the Eurozone, such as the lack of political integration. This column
introduces the Eiffel group – a group of French experts – and its call for a
‘political community of the euro’. The economic and political rationales behind
the proposal are discussed in detail. This proposal (also shared by experts in
other countries) calls for a debate about the architecture and institutions
underpinning the European Monetary Union.
Delivering the
Eurozone ‘Consistent Trinity’ – voxeu.org
Marco Buti, Maria Demertzis, João Nogueira Martins: Although progress
has been made on resolving the Eurozone crisis – vulnerable countries have
reduced their current-account deficits and implemented some reforms – more
still needs to be done. This column argues for a ‘consistent trinity’ of
policies: structural reforms within countries, more symmetric macroeconomic
adjustment across countries, and a banking union for the Eurozone.
Euroscepticism
gaining currency? Implications of the EU elections for economic policy – DB
Research
The European elections will be held in late May. The share of the vote
gained by eurosceptics could increase. Using national election surveys as a
basis we have modelled three potential scenarios of the outcome. Even under
extreme assumptions the eurosceptics remain far short of attaining working
majorities. However, in the run-up to national elections government positions
on European policy could be influenced by how well the respective eurosceptics
fare on polling day. Thus, the eurosceptics' indirect influence will probably
be of relevance both before and after the European elections.
Europe’s banking
problems and secular stagnation – voxeu.org
Jakob de Haan, Jan Willem van den End: While many economists argue that
demand stimulus is needed, this column argues that supply side measures are
necessary to avoid secular stagnation. In the Eurozone, it is necessary to
clean up and strengthen the balance sheets of banks, which can kick-start the
flow of new lending. The comprehensive assessment by the ECB is an important
step in this direction.
Brussels blog round
up 22-28 March – Europp
/ LSE
Dutch and French elections, Obama in Italy, and who won the Clegg-Farage
debate?
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Eurozone's credit
contraction continues – Sober
Look
German inflation fell
in line with expectations – Danske
Bank
Euro area: Inflation to trough in March – Nordea
Low inflation numbers
from Germany and Spain suggest that Euro area inflation fell to 0.6% y/y in
March (data to be published next Monday 11:00 CET). We expect that to be the
low point of the cycle.
UKRAINE / RUSSIA
Putin calls Obama to
discuss U.S. proposal on Ukraine-White House – Reuters
Putin called Obama on Friday to discuss a U.S. diplomatic proposal for
Ukraine, the White House said, adding that Obama told him that Russia must pull
back its troops and not move deeper into Ukraine.
Moody's Puts Russia On Downgrade Review; Cites Event Risk, Investor
Sentiment, And Weakening Economy – ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-28/moodys-puts-russia-downgrade-review-cites-event-risk-investor-sentiment-and-weakenin
'Dear to Our Hearts':
The Crimean Crisis from the Kremlin's Perspective – Spiegel
The EU and US have come down hard on Russia for its annexation
of the Crimean Peninsula. But from the
perspective of the Kremlin, it is the West that has painted Putin into a corner.
And the Russian president will do what it takes to free himself.
Dossier of
Dubiousness: Did Putin's Man in Crimea Have Mafia Ties? – Spiegel
Secret documents provide new information about how Crimea's newly
installed prime minister amassed his assets. They also suggest Sergei Aksyonov
had ties to the mafia. To this day, he denies any links to organized crime.
Opinion, by Ian Bremmer: The G7 suspended Russia for breaking from
its core values. Moscow's response: So what?
Any escalation in the Ukraine crisis poses a
threat to Cyprus's economy, the
outgoing governor of the country's central bank said in an interview, noting
that he expects the bailed-out euro zone member to return to growth in 2015.
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
Evans: Thoughts on accommodative monetary policy, inflation and
financial instability – BIS
Evans: Interest Rates to Stay Near Zero ‘Well Into 2015′ - WSJ
Dudley: US monetary policy and emerging market economies – BIS
George: Sees Signs of Higher Inflation – WSJ
Fed of 1970s Shows
Capacity May Mislead: Cutting Research – BB
The decision of central banks to
focus more on economic slack as a barometer of when inflation
will become a problem could backfire, if history is any guide.
Do “Too-Big-to-Fail”
Banks Take On More Risk? – The
Big Picture
Our findings therefore lend support to the claim that “Too-Big-to-Fail”
banks engage in riskier activities by taking advantage of the likelihood that
they’ll receive government aid.
ASIA
Chinese authorities have seized assets worth at least 90 billion yuan
($14.5 billion) from family members and associates of retired domestic security
tsar Zhou Yongkang, who is at the center of China's biggest corruption
scandal in more than six decades.