Here are the ”best” from my
posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
The Eurozone: out of
the ashes? – mainly
macro
How can you be planning to move towards fiscal union when
the governance structures of the Eurozone have clearly failed with a more
limited set of tasks?
Spring 2014 forecast:
Growth becoming broader-based – EC
“The urge to merge meets the dash for trash”
– FT
Matt King believes that the combination of the remarkably
supportive liquidity environment of the past few years and the lack of better
alternatives will remain in place for a while — even as credit fundamentals
keep deteriorating and valuations become less and less attractive. This
“greater fools game” is unlikely to end well…King’s new note is about the
incentive for investors in European credit to shift down in quality.
France's Montebourg says euro rate is matter for politicians – Reuters
Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg stepped up France's
push for a weaker euro on Wednesday, saying political leaders had the right to
assess the right level for the currency in a position completely at odds with Germany's.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Draghi ABS Plan Seen
Helping Banks, Not Business – BB
Plan to spur growth by getting the ECB to buy asset-backed
securities and persuade lenders to sell more of the bonds is being met with
skepticism by the region’s biggest money managers.
The ECB must - and can – act – Bruegel
By coyly debating the definition and likelihood of
deflation, while hoping for a renewal of inflation, the ECB is ignoring
increasing risks, especially the growing cracks in the Italian fault line… The
ECB may already have waited too late. Even if it were to finally act, its past
delays may render its actions and
Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s Shopping List
– Bruegel
Think Tank Sees Workaround for ECB Bond Buys – WSJ
Inflation forecasts by the ECB
have fallen substantially below the two percent threshold. It was a mistake
that the ECB did not act earlier. Conventional policy measures are unlikely to
change inflation dynamics substantially. The ECB therefore needs to start
buying assets. We propose to buy €35bn per months of a portfolio of
ESM/EFSF/EU/EIB bonds, corporate bonds, and ASB. Buying international
securities is not advisable as it would be against international commitments
(full 25-page pdf-document).
ECB is delighted by
the splendid prospect of deflation – The
Telegraph
The great mystery is why the voting public of debtor states
continue to put up with an arrangement that ensures years of mass unemployment
A Glance at the ECB’s
Dashboard – WSJ
Why European QE Will
Not Help (In 2 Simple Charts) – ZH
UNITED STATES
The story of the
American recovery in 15 charts – WaPo
FEDERAL RESERVE
All
"Rules-based" Economists Agree: Fed Policy Is Too Easy – ZH
Fed seen hiking rates
in June 2015 as U.S. job creation surges – Reuters
Fed could start raising benchmark interest rates in just
over a year, based on trading in U.S.
short-term interest-rate futures after a government report showed employers
added many more jobs than expected in April.
How tight is the US labour market? – Danske
Bank
The data is not conclusive but, given the Fed view, we
believe the risk seems skewed towards a tighter job market than perceived by
the Fed.
The Fed’s riposte on
short v long-term unemployment – FT
All You Need to Know
About Fed Policy in Three Questions – WSJ
How much slack remains in the U.S.
economy? Once the economy returns to normal, say 5.5% unemployment, where
should the Fed expect short-term interest rates to be? What else should the Fed
take into account?
ASIA
China’s leaning
towers – FT
Nomura says every property market leading indicator at the
national level turned down in Q1, and for most monthly indicators the rate of
decline accelerated through the quarter. The question is no longer “if” or
“when”, but rather “how much” China’s
structurally oversupplied property market will correct.
OTHER
A deep correction's
on the horizon; how prepared are you? – TradingFloor
The seasonal "Sell in May" effect is promising
flat returns for the next five months or so. Several other factors are
suggesting that this flat period could very well include a deeper market
correction.
Oh the thinks you can think – FT
Discussing the megatrends. Link to full report available.
The permanent damage from the crisis – FT
OECD has published its latest guess at the permanent damage
from the crisis and the different causes in different countries.
FINNISH
Euron tulevaisuus - Suomen vaihtoehdot – MoreLiver’s
Saksan menestys ja Suomi – Tyhmyri
On harhakuvitelma
uskoa Saksan edun olevan Suomen etu
Onko itsenäisessä keskuspankissa
mitään järkeä? – Tyhmyri
Euro ja turvallisuuspoliittinen harha – Tyhmyri
Keksittyjen
puolusteluiden ketju jatkuu
Lipponen, Katainen ja maan etu – Paavo
Väyrynen / US
Kalliiksi tuli
Suomelle Lipposen pyrkimys päästä komission puheenjohtajaksi.
Miksi euroalue on ongelmissa? – Kansantaloudellinen
aikakauskirja 4/2013
Tuomas Malinen
& Tero Kuusi
Luottoluokitus euromaalle tärkeämpi – Roger
Wessman
EU:n suunta: Kuinka tiivis liitto? – Ulkopoliittinen
Instituutti
Tässä raportissa
tarkastellaan Euroopan unionin (EU) kehitysvaihtoehtoja. Tarkastelun keskiössä
ovat talous- ja rahaliitto EMU sekä siihen liittyvät, Euroopan rahoitus- ja
velkakriisin liikkeelle sysäämät uudistukset.