30th May - Mixed Macro, Waiting for ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Thursday: US Q1 GDP -1%, more on EU elections

Wednesday: Post-election, pre-ECB

Tuesday: Bull day, ECB's meeting continues

Monday: Market holiday, but stocks surge

Credit Guest: The Vortex Ring

"Hitler kuulee" - EKP:n kokous

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Weekly Support

W/E: Best of the Week

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EUROPE

A Quarter Of Europeans Are At Risk Of Poverty – ZH

Drop in Italian, Spanish inflation feeds euro zone deflation worries – Reuters

Annual consumer inflation slowed in Italy and Spain in May, heightening concerns about deflation risk in the euro zone as the bloc's central bank gears up for an expected growth-boosting shift in monetary policy next week.

  ELECTIONS

Europe’s Litmus Test – Project Syndicate

The European Parliament election is grabbing headlines worldwide, as it highlights a new skepticism in the European politics and raises concerns about the future of the integration project. But the real litmus test for the EU is to be found elsewhere – in the health of its smaller economies, especially Greece and Ireland.

Europe’s crisis of legitimacy is not confined to the EU – FT

http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/05/30/europes-crisis-of-legitimacy-is-not-confined-to-the-eu/

While Geert Wilders suffered a disappointing result, the Dutch EP elections were still a long way from a ‘vote for Europe’ – Europp / LSE

Re-Winning Europe – Project Syndicate

Javier Solana: Last weekend’s European Parliament election revealed the full extent of voters’ frustrations, discontent, and lack of confidence in both the EU and their national governments. If the EU is to retain public loyalty, it needs a program of strategic priorities.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Mr. Draghi–Your Public Awaits – WSJ

According to a client survey carried out by foreign-exchange analysts at Nomura this week, 95% expect a cut to the refinancing rate—currently at a record low of 0.25%–while 90% think the ECB will press ahead with a negative deposit rate. More than half are expecting some form of liquidity injection, although just 10% anticipate a QE announcement next week. In short, hopes are running high.

ECB signals fire up Eastern European bond rally – FT

ECB and BoE plan to revive EU securitization, boost investment – Reuters

The ECB and the BoE set out proposals on Friday to resurrect the European Union's market for asset-backed securities and help the flow of credit to smaller businesses. -

ECB ready to act to avoid risks from low inflation: Constancio - Reuters

ECB vice president Vitor Constancio said on Friday the ECB was not complacent about the risks from a protracted period of low inflation and would act if necessary.

ECB's Visco warns on inflation drop, euro strength – Reuters

Excessively low inflation in the euro zone should be dealt with as firmly as high inflation, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Friday, adding that a strong euro had helped push inflation too low.

UNITED STATES

  FEDERAL RESERVE

Fed’s Pianalto: Fed Has Succeeded at Checking Inflation – WSJ

Fed’s Plosser: U.S. Inflation is on its Way Back Toward 2% Target – WSJ

Fed's Plosser: Sub-six percent U.S. unemployment rate possible by year end – Reuters

Fed's Evans: don't use rate policy to fight instability – Reuters

Lacker urges limits on Fed's credit market 'activism' – Reuters

Fed's Williams: Fed funds at two percent or higher by late 2016 – Reuters

Fed's Mester stresses stable prices, inflation research – Reuters

  MACRO DATA

Visualizing GDP: Dissecting the Q1 Second Estimate – dshort

Real GDP Per Capita Plunges to -1.60% - dshort

Personal income and outlays April 2014 – BEA

Income +0.3% in April, Spending -0.1% - Calculated Risk

PCE Price Index: Headline and Core Remain Below Target, But Rising – dshort

U.S. consumer spending dips; inflation creeps up – Reuters

Consumer Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Declines – BB

The Latest on Real Disposable Income Per Capita – dshort

Chicago PMI Rises Above Highest Estimate, Employment Drops; Prices Paid Soar – ZH

Final May Consumer Sentiment at 81.9, Chicago PMI increases to 65.5 – Calculated Risk

UMich Confidence Misses; Current Conditions Lowest In 6 Months – ZH

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A Disappointing 81.8 May Final – dshort

U.S. consumer sentiment down in May, wages a concern – Reuters

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast in May – BB

ASIA

Abenomics Suffers Crippling Blow: Economy Sputters As Inflation Soars, BOJ QE Delayed Indefinitely – ZH

OTHER

ECB, BOJ Fighting a Zero Sum Battle – WSJ

Maybe now that the Bank of Japan’s chiefs have decided it will hold off pressing the policy levers during the rest of this year, it could be the ECB’s turn to play win the zero sum game for a change.

Macro Daily – WSJ

The simultaneous return of inflation in Japan and the rise of disinflationary trends in Europe tell us that the most effective solution that “Abenomics” found to Japan’s deflation problem was to export it to other countries via a weaker yen… monetary policy as it has been conducted has zero-sum effects. It needs to be coordinated across borders.

Central Bank Daily – WSJ

KC Fed’s George Sets Battle Lines on Rate Hikes * Fed’s George: Fed Should Begin Rate Hikes ‘Shortly’ After Bond Buys End * ECB, Bank of England Outline Options to Boost Asset-Backed Securities Market * Japan Inflation Accelerates * India vs. China: Democracy Eases Downturns?