W/E:
Weekly Support (updated)
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EUROPE
Putin is looking to
cement ties with China as the conflict in Ukraine alienates him from the U.S. and its European allies. The relationship with
China, Russia’s biggest trading partner after the two-way
volume surged sevenfold in the past decade to $94 billion last year, is
becoming even more important as escalating sanctions threaten to tip the
economy into recession.
The Eurozone Recovery and Household Savings – mainly
macro
The Eurozone appears
to have already had its growth boost from declines in the savings ratio: it
helped moderate the size of the 2012 recession…Is there anything else that
could provide the basis for a strong recovery?
ELECTIONS
European Parliament elections: a final look at
the polls – Europp
/ LSE
While Eurosceptic
parties are predicted to significantly increase their representation, the race
between the European People’s Party and the Party of European Socialists to
hold the largest number of seats is still too close to call.
What happens next after the European elections?
– Open
Europe
With the European
elections taking place on Thursday through to Sunday this week, it is worth
considering what happens next. The proposed Spitzenkandidaten or European
Parliamentary families’ candidates for European Commission President is set to
make the post-election horse-trading and politicking more fraught than usual.
The idea of Europe still remains powerful for Spanish citizens
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
ECB's Mersch says chances for June action
grown substantially – Reuters
There were increasing
signs on Monday that the European Central Bank will add more stimulus to the
euro zone economy at its June policy meeting as inflation remains stuck at very
low levels.
Where could ECB interest rates go? – Money
Matters
Combatting the Crunch: ECB Plans Negative Rate
on Bank Deposits – Spiegel
When it meets on June
6, SPIEGEL has learned, the European Central Bank may implement a negative
interest rate for financial institutions seeking to park their money at the Frankfurt powerhouse. The move is aimed at spurring
loans.
CRISIS
COUNTRIES
The Greek Bond Dump – BB
Investors might want
to ask themselves just how confident they are that the rally in European bonds
that has driven yields to record lows is sustainable.
Italian Bad Loans Surge 26% YoY To Record High
(59th Month In A Row) – ZH
Peripheral European Bond Risk Surges To
2-Month Highs – ZH
The Federal Reserve's
super-easy policies, if pursued for too long, could have adverse consequences
in the long run, two top Fed officials said on Monday, although the biggest
risk is not runaway inflation.
Bernanke says no need for Fed to shrink balance sheet – Reuters
The Federal Reserve
does not need to shrink its $4 trillion-plus balance sheet by even "a
dime" for it to normalize monetary policy when the time comes, former Fed
Chair Ben Bernanke said on Monday.
Fed won't allow inflation upon exit: Williams – Reuters
The Federal Reserve is
actively testing tools to raise rates when needed, and has a plan to exit its
extraordinarily easy policies that will allow it to do so without sparking
inflation, a top Fed official said on Monday.
Fed's Dudley:
Expect Long Run Fed Funds Rate to be well below the 4¼ percent average level
with 2 percent inflation – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
'This is not a coup' says Thai army, as martial law declared – Reuters
Thailand's army declared martial law nationwide on Tuesday to restore order after six months of street protests that have left the country without a proper functioning government, but denied that the surprise move amounted to a military coup.
Like most macro
assets, the USDJPY cross has frustrated consensus this year. To some extent,
this isn’t surprising.
Emerging Markets Briefer - May 2014 – Danske
Bank
EM Bond Snapshot - May
2014 – Danske Bank
Dollar Bid, but Relationships Breakdown – Marc
to Market
Grand Central – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take:
Follow the Stable Dots * Fed’s Williams Says First Rate Hike Is Likely In
Second Half Of 2015 * ECB’s Mersch Says Probability of June Action Has Risen
Considerably * Australia Central Bank: Rates Likely To Stay Low For Some Time *
Monetary Easing in China? Don’t Hold Your Breath
Macro Horizons – WSJ
Absent Pipeline
Inflation to Keep Policy Easy, Bond Yields Low
FINNISH
Haluatko
todella samaan liittovaltioon Välimeren maiden kanssa?
– Toimi
Kankaanniemi / US
Pääomakontrollit,
protektionismi ja muutenkin impivaaraa – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Nokia
ja Suomen tuottavuus – Roger Wessman