Here are the ”best”
from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
IMF preferred creditor status and the Eurozone
crisis – voxeu.org
By lending €30 billion
to Greece in 2010, the IMF introduced the option to
permanently waive the requirement that a borrowing country is on the path to stability.
This option increases the chance of moral hazard and undermines the strong
framework for the preferred creditor status.
Changing Continent: European Parliament
Elections 2014 – WSJ
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB, BOE want to resurrect shadow banking in Europe – Sober Look
The ECB and BoE
published a joint paper calling for the return of securitization markets in
Europe (see below). This goes completely against the grain of the latest Basel
accord which has started imposing much higher capital requirements for holding
securitized paper.
Draghi Tells German Lawmakers
ECB Bond-Purchases Unlikely – BB
Draghi told German
lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively
unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.
The ECB betting on
"creditless" recovery
– Sober Look
Of course Japan too had a "creditless" recovery -
until it didn't. But let's not make such silly comparisons.
ECB's empty toolbox makes it look the other way – TradingFloor
The macroeconomic
environment in Europe is screaming out for further policy action but
the only thing that would work is fixing the banks. As no-one wants to do that,
the ECB is pretending the banks are OK, and that will not fix anything.
STRESS
TESTS
Europe’s Credit
Squeeze Gives ECB a Headache –
WSJ
Until the euro zone’s
banking sector has been put onto a sound footing, the problems with credit transmission
are bound to persist. The ECB and the banks’ regulator is trying to do this by
imposing severe stress tests and capital requirements. But
the process takes time.
Europe
Banks Face Toughest Simulated Slump in Stress Test – BB
EU unveils tougher bank tests
in bid to draw line under crisis
– Reuters
ECB Squeezed and EBA Posts Stress Test
Scenarios – Marc to Market
European banks must
show they can survive simultaneous routs in bonds, property and stocks, in the
toughest test so far by regulators aiming to restore confidence in an industry
that had to be rescued by taxpayers in the financial crisis.
UNITED STATES
ASIA
Japan’s
20-Year Deflationary Spiral Is About To End – Asia Confidential
Myth of a Japanese economic
recovery * More stimulus soon * Wage growth around the corner * Positives from
inflation…Offset by bond market risks
OTHER
Why AUDJPY is the Swiss army knife for traders – TradingFloor
Whether you trade
single stocks or index CFDs, I can’t think of a more relevant item than the
AUDJPY to keep on the screens. In 2012, it was the European sovereign bonds. In
2013, it was the EURJPY. But AUDJPY is forever – and it just might have a story
to tell you at this very moment.
Global Macro Part 3: Stocks & Bonds – Short Side of Long
Cyclical equity sectors
are starting to under-perform defensives * Stock vs Bond ratio is giving us a
bearish non-confirmation! * Treasuries have done poorly over the last year
& could rebound! *
Berkshire Hathaway: Playing out the last hand – The Economist
Warren Buffett’s 50 years
running Berkshire Hathaway have been one of business’s most impressive winning
streaks. How will it end?
Asness on the central paradox of efficient
markets – Forbes
Efficient market?
Baloney, says famed value- and momentum strategist Cliff Asness, Chief
Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management, who sat down with me to discuss
his unique quant strategy. A video and transcript of our conversation follows.
FINNISH
Euroopan
maiden velkaantuminen - paranemaan päin? – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Suomi
on hyötynyt taloudellisesti EU-jäsenyydestä – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Myyntimiehelle
näytettiin ovea: Hollanti uhkasi euroerolla – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Kreikkalaisen
tilastobluffin paluu – nyt EU:n luvalla – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Kreikan tuoreet taloustilastot osoittavat, että
taito tilastojen kaunisteluun on tallella ja käytössä. Tuore bluffi
"kohentaa" valtion budjettitalouden alijäämän ylijäämäksi
yksinkertaisella keinolla: se jättää suuren määrä menoja laskuista pois. Temppu
on tuttu kriisiä edeltäneeltä ajalta – mutta nyt EU hyväksyy sen.
Rationaaliset
valtionlainamarkkinat? – Roger
Wessman
Lisää
joko-tai –näkemyksiä – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Euroalueen sisäiset eroavaisuudet näyttäytyvät
kaikkialla...Mutta ainoa asia, jossa tällaisia eroja ei hyväksytä on
valtiolainojen hinnoittelussa.
EU-kriitikoiden vaalivoitto voi muuttua tappioksi – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Erityyppiset "EU-kriittiset" protestipuolueet
saavat ennusteiden mukaan runsaan kannatuksen EU:n ensi kuun
parlamenttivaaleissa. Protestiäänet eivät silti riittäne pysäyttämään EU:n
liittovaltiokehitystä – se voi jopa voimistua. Poliittiset täyskäännökset
nähdäänkin jäsenmaiden omissa parlamenteissa, jos missään.
Euron tulevaisuus - markan toinen tuleminen – Sami
Miettinen / US
Ideoita
inflaation piristämiseen – Henri
Myllyniemi / US