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EUROPE
It’s not a
question of in or out, but of whether Britain can avoid the flames of destruction
"Debt
Trap" Nonsense; Eurosceptics on Rise; Demise of the EU: "Soon There
Won't be a Europe" Says Telegraph – Mish’s
No country
can run huge surpluses without inciting taxpayer revolt, says Barry Eichengreen
Wolfgang Münchau:
The Council of Economic Experts says nothing about investment. It wants Merkel
to be tougher
The
nuclear gun is back on the table – FT
Gideon
Rachman: Both in private and in public, Russia is making explicit references to
its nuclear arsenal
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Easing… quantitative
easing – ECB version
– FT
Draghi
Seen Bypassing QE Qualms to Hit Balance-Sheet Goal – BB
Mario
Draghi will succeed in boosting the European Central Bank’s balance sheet back
toward 3 trillion euros ($3.75 trillion), though he’ll have to override some
policy makers’ qualms on quantitative easing to do so.
Praet:
Repairing the bank lending channel: the next steps – ECB
Draghi:
Introductory remarks at the EP’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee – ECB
Draghi
Lists New Year Resolutions to Aid ECB Monetary Stimulus – BB
Mario
Draghi presented European lawmakers with a list of policy resolutions for 2015
as he insisted his institution alone can’t fix the region’s economy.
Draghi
repeats “whatever it takes”, ECB buys only EUR3bn in week – ZH
ECB
members strengthening easing bias – Danske
Bank
http://www.danskebank.com/en-uk/ci/Products-Services/Markets/Research/Documents/FlashComment_ECB_171114.pdf
A Snag
in the Plan to Help the Eurozone Grow – WSJ
Euro area
international trade in goods surplus €18.5 bn – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
SF Fed
Paper Warns Fed May Not Hit Price Target Until After 2016 – WSJ
Long-term
Unemployment a Sign of Slack, NY Fed Economists Say – WSJ
Industrial
Production Drops – ZH
ASIA
Japan Q3
GDP shrinks, Abe likely to delay tax hike – Reuters
Japan's slip into surprise recession
paves way for tax delay, snap poll – Reuters
Japan GDP
Signals Companies Mismanaged Sales-Tax Increase Again – BB
Japan slips into recession – Reuters
Japan Seeks to Strengthen 2015 Growth
After Recession Hit – BB
Key Points
to Take Away From Japan’s Slide Into Recession – BB
Japan’s economy in seven charts – FT
Japan’s Sensible Fiscal Retreat – Macro
and Markets
Abenomics’ route
uncertain on GDP shock – FT
Japan’s “debt problem” in perspective – FT
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Schlesinger’s
Take: Will Bank of Japan Need Still More Stimulus? * Japan Falls Into Recession
* Fed’s Bullard Still Wants Fed Rate Rise in Late First Quarter 2015 * ECB’s
Mersch Talks Down Imminent Purchases of Sovereign Bonds * BOE’s Carney Says
Financial Reform Remains Work in Progress
Daily
Macro – WSJ
The
unexpected news that Japan dropped into recession in the
second quarter has grabbed investors’ attention Monday, mostly because of the
extreme reaction seen in Japanese markets. Not only did Japanese stocks
predictably fall but (rather less predictably) the yen rose. That could be
because of automatic responses based on the strong correlation seen until now
between the rising stock market and a falling yen; it could reflect speculation
that the GDP result will render Abenomics’ a failure and so put an end to the
yen-weakening policies of the Bank of Japan; or it could simply be that the
Japanese currency was due for an upward correction.
FI
Eye-Opener: Hoping for better days – Nordea
Bonds with
another rally on Friday – more gains in sight. Fitch changes Belgian rating
outlook to negative. Japan back in recession. G20 with growth hopes – Russian
crisis receives a lot of focus. US retail sales with a big bounce. Euro area
able to show some growth. Euro-area PMIs, Fed minutes and US CPI ahead – Draghi
to speak today. Belgian, Spanish and French supply ahead.
The big
news today is Japan's huge GDP shortfall, which has
investors across asset classes retreating from all things Japan and wondering how the Bank of Japan
is planning to react in terms of stimulus. Elsewhere, stubbornly low oil prices
have brought volatility to the energy sector, but could also provide a
sustained boost in consumer staples equities.
2020
vision: Where will bond yields head next? – Nordea
Forecasts
claiming that “bond yields will rise” have been wrong in most of recent years.
We look into the drivers of low rates and offer three scenarios about the
longer-term future developments (with a horizon of, say, 2020). We also look at
rates under an ECB QE scenario as well as the drivers of ultra-long rates.
Sweden: amortization requirements, as we
know it * SEK rate vol: end of year is not end of history * SEK linkers:
break-even inflation low in relation to SEK * EUR rates: peculiar patterns in
the repo market * EUR rates: 10s dipping a toe below 1% * FX vol: EURCHF for
the gutsy
Here Is
Your "Global Recovery" In 24 Charts – ZH
Changes in
2014 and 2015 EPS forecasts by country
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tästä Euroopalle taantuman tappajia | Japanin BKT selvästi
odotettua heikompi | Euroalueen BKT hieman odotuksia parempi
Anders Borg mukana 1.12 – Roger Wessman
Anders Borg vahvisti, että hän osallistuu keskusteluun
Suomen talouden mahdollisuuksista seminaarissamme 1.12. Vielä ehtii ilmoittautua.
Mitä talouskasvu on ja mistä se tulee? (RH I) – Harhala
Soini: EU-jäsenmaksu tuplaantuu, vaikutusvaltaa puolet
vähemmän – PS
Saarakkala: Euro-eron oltava yhä vaihtoehto – PS
Hallitukseen vauhtia 90-luvun lamaopein – YLE
Politiikan konkarit haukkuivat nykyhallitusten päätöksenteon
maan rakoon viikonloppuna. Näin tekivät presidentti Sauli Niinistö lehtihaastattelussa
ja lamavuosien pääministeri Esko Aho lauantain TV 1:n Ykkösaamussa. Aikalaisten
mukaan Ahon hallitus jyräsi päätöksiä pienessä piirissä kirosanojen voimalla.