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EUROPE
Last month
Bruegel held an event exploring migration in the EU and the impact migration
has on society and its contribution to sustainable economic growth. The free
movement of labour is not only a key pillar of the European project, but also
essential to the proper functioning of a monetary union. Inspired by this theme
and the tone of the current political debate, we present 4 informative charts.
Eurosceptic
parties harm recovery, chief executives warn – FT
Chief
executives at Europe’s largest companies have warned
that rising support for eurosceptic political parties is deterring investment –
and is one of the factors holding back recovery in the eurozone.
EU INVESTMENT PLAN
EU
investment plan; game changer or empty vessel? – Reuters
Infrastructure
“New Deal” is Yet More Smoke and Mirrors – naked
capitalism
Juncker
Unveils $392 Billion Plan to Unlock EIB Financing – BB
Juncker defends funding method for €315bn
infrastructure projects – FT
UNITED KINGDOM
Understanding
George Osborne – mainly
macro
Osborne's
plans are illiterate in macroeconomic terms. The UK economy desperately needs more
growth. There remains plenty of slack in the labour market, and real wages are
continuing to fall.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB, QE and
so long to that damn negativity – FT
QE
elsewhere has not resulted in an increase in inflation expectations mainly
because it did nothing to address the debt overhang… The ECB presumably knows this hence the reluctance, technical and legal
considerations aside, to go ahead with Sovereign QE.
The role
of the banking union in achieving financial stability – ECB
Speech by
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the FT Banking Summit “Ensuring
Future Growth”, London, 26 November 2014
Constancio
Says ECB Sovereign-Debt Buying Would Use Capital Key – BB
ECB can
decide on sovereign bond buys in Q1, says Constancio – Reuters
Euro-area
credit monitor – Danske
Bank
The
Problem With the Eurozone’s Dose of Monetary Magic – WSJ
Without the
Bundesbank’s firepower, QE would be theoretically possible but practically
unthinkable and certain to please no one. Proper, sovereign QE would require an
open-ended commitment, possibly of a hundred billion euros’ worth of purchases
every month. And, of course, it might not work.
Fault
lines within the ECB
– FT
Gavyn
Davies: The simmering row between the ECB’s Draghi and the Bundesbank’s
Weidmann
UNITED STATES
US durable
goods orders surprise to the upside – TradingFloor
Personal
Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2% - Calculated
Risk
New home
sales rise in October, but September revised down – Reuters
Consumer,
business spending data point to slowing growth – Reuters
ASIA
RBA’s
Lowe Sees Aussie Dollar Falling With Commodity Prices – BB
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over * ECB
Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds Early Next Year, Says Constancio * Federal
Reserve Proposes New Regulations for GE Capital * Regulators Okay Wells Fargo
Plan on Theoretical Bankruptcy * All Quiet on the Fed Discount Rate Front
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
Japanese
economy continues to recover Swedish NIER survey at 9.00
FI
Eye-Opener: Ever lower lows – Nordea
Record-low
yield levels hit in the Euro-area government bond markets. Yields with more
room to fall. Bundesbank worried about corporate bond bubbles. Busy US data flow continuing. Supply action
from Germany, Portugal and the US.
Dollar
is Firm but Loses Momentum Against the Yen – Marc
to Market
FX Noon:
Week's trading looks nasty, brutish and short – TradingFloor
Today's
trading saw AUD tumble against the US dollar in a move that must have satisfied
the country's reserve bank. Meanwhile, the ECB has edged yet closer to full-on
quantitative easing and uncertainty regarding Opec's intention to cut oil
production leaves us bearish on the Canadian dollar.
US Open – ZH
Daily
Shot: Till debt do us part – TradingFloor
US home loans hit 13-year low * Student
loan delinquencies on the rise * WTI crude falls to four-year low
From the
floor – TradingFloor
Banking
sector is leading Chinese equities to 18-month high * Equities part of a
"strong trend building here,", says Garnry * Stark warning for
investors hoping to ride a Black Friday wave * Bond markets building momentum
as evidence of money entering market grows * Fasdal says "there is a lack
of negative correlation [in bonds] to equities" * Fresh money into bond
markets on back of anticipated ECB QE drive
Radical
cures for unusual economic ills – FT
Martin Wolf:
The crisis left a grim legacy, and the answers are likely to be unorthodox
OIL / OPEC
OPEC's
Prisoner's Dilemma –
Marc
to Market
The
Geopolitical Impact of Cheap Oil – Project
Syndicate
Martin
Feldstein: If the price of oil, which has fallen more than 25% in the past five
months, remains at its current level, it will have important implications for
many countries around the world, some good and some bad. If it falls further,
as seems likely, the geopolitical consequences could be dramatic.
Little
Comfort to Oil’s Ills
– WSJ
There was
little good news in Moody’s latest musings on the oil and gas sector: tumbling prices, lower demand in developed
countries, cuts to investment budgets and a struggle to find sufficiently
profitable production growth.
Saudi
signals no output target change – FT
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Amerikkalaiset kaasuttelevat jouluostoksille | Vieraskynä:
Onko kultavarannon koolla väliä? | USA:n kuluttajien luottamus jäi odotuksista
Näin perustuloa voitaisiin kokeilla – Verkkouutiset
Ajatushautomo Tänk ehdottaa perustuloa testattavaksi
Suomessa niin sanotulla kenttäkokeella, josta saataisiin tieteellistä näyttöä
perustulon vaikutuksista.
Vanha Venäjä-visio löytyi naftaliinista – eduskunta
ennusti oikein – Verkkouutiset
Tulevaisuusvaliokunta pohtii taas, mihin suuntaan Venäjä
kehittyy.
KATAISEN PAKETTI
Jyrki Katainen yrittää luotsata 1,3 miljoonaa uutta työpaikkaa
Eurooppaan – Verkkouutiset
Jyrki Katainen ensimmäisestä tulikokeesta: "Olen tyytyväinen"
– IL
Liisa Jaakonsaari: Kelpo suoritus Kataiselta – IL
Tällainen on Kataisen kohuttu kasvu- ja investointipaketti –
IL
Kataisen 20 miljardin paketin sisältö selvisi – IL
Juncker: Tänään Eurooppa kääntää sivua – YLE
Yrittäjät: Pk-yritysten merkitys Euroopan tulevaisuudelle on
ymmärretty – Verkkouutiset