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EUROPE
Countdown
to missed opportunity for EU economy – Reuters
When
European Union leaders meet on Dec. 18-19 under new management, they have a
chance to launch a joint assault on the economic stagnation and high
unemployment that are fuelling disenchantment and anti-EU protest among voters.
All the signs are they are set to fall short.
Regional
elections deliver Renzi warning – FT
Turnout
slumps across Italy but support for Northern League
surges
Spanish
polls show Podemos surge is no aberration – FT
Stripping
Neighbors of Money Pressure Mounts for EU Crackdown on Tax Havens – Spiegel
Corporations
pay low taxes in Luxembourg. As prime minister, Jean-Claude
Juncker carried partial blame for this policy. Politicians in Brussels have maneuvered to save him from
the scandal, but the case has cast light on Europe's tax-dumping problem.
Ukraine will never succeed with a hostile Russia on its borders
FISCAL STIMULUS
ECB's
Nowotny hails EU stimulus plan as growth booster – Reuters
How the
EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion – BB
The European
Union is planning a 21 billion-euro ($26 billion) fund to share the risks of
new projects with private investors, two EU officials said.
Wolfgang
Munchau: It is logically inconsistent for the eurozone to enter secular
stagnation and not restructure
GERMANY
Germany's economy is teetering on the brink
of a new recession - we ask what is Berlin's plan to turn things around and
will it do anything to help the rest of the Eurozone? Ed Butler speaks to the
German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter and discusses the issues with
Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research; Philippe
Legrain, a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics' European
Institute, and Christian Schulz, senior economist at the German bank, Berenberg.
Daniel
Gros: In 2012, when a financial storm engulfed the eurozone, it was Germany that kept the European ship off the
shoals of financial disaster. But now Europe’s anchor has become a brake, hindering forward
movement.
The
Quiet German – The New Yorker
The astonishing
rise of Angela Merkel, the most powerful woman in the world.
Ifo
Business Climate Index Rises – CESIfo
German IFO
expectations increased for first time since April – Danske
Bank
Ifo rises
but still indicates only slow growth – Nordea
German
business morale rebounds in November – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
European
Banks May be Harder to Bail In than the ECB Thinks – naked
capitalism
Draghi's
prospects for fixing Eurozone in doubt – TradingFloor
Mario
Draghi has sent a strong signal that the ECB is ready to expand its stimulus
programme, to revive the flagging Eurozone economies. The plan is to boost
asset purchases, thereby increasing the money flowing in the economy. This has
raised hopes the ECB will acquire large amounts of government bonds. But this
would reduce yields, and with it the prospect of reform.
Opinion:
Why Draghi is pushing the euro lower – MarketWatch
You have
been warned — the euro, like the yen, is heading lower.
Euro
zone private loan data still looking more like groan data – Reuters
It’s been
more than two years since euro zone banks increased net lending to private
businesses. And it’s been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank
launched a new plan to turn that situation around. Everyone is still waiting
for results.
Draghi
Urgency for ECB Action Gets Final Reality Check With Data – BB
Economists
from Credit Suisse Group AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Draghi’s Nov. 21
comments indicate the ECB will buy sovereign debt.
Jens
Weidmann: Towards a more prosperous monetary union – BIS
Speech by
Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Asociación de
Mercados Financieros Annual Financial Convention, Madrid, 24
November 2014.
ECB’s
Weidmann: Monetary Policy Alone Can’t Create Growth – WSJ
Weidmann
Sees High Legal Hurdles for Sovereign QE – BB
Weidmann
warns of "legal limits" on further moves by ECB – Reuters
ECB
Nowotny: Wait to See Effect of Policy Measures Before Undertaking New Ones – WSJ
UNITED STATES
The Fed
concerned about "importing" disinflation – Sober
Look
Weakest
rise in service sector business activity since April – Markit
U.S. services sector activity grows,
November rate slows: Markit – Reuters
Service PMI
Misses, Tumbles To 7-Month Lows – ZH
ASIA
"China is not safe until they put the
credit genie back in the bottle but that is going to be very difficult to do,”
warns UBS
Stimulus
With Chinese Characteristics – View
/ BB
The rate
cut draws attention to a genuinely difficult problem for the global economy:
what to do about China's fading and unbalanced expansion.
Signal
vs noise from the PBoC – FT
SocGen’s
Wei Yao: “due to the further rate liberalisation announced at the same time,
there is actually no de facto rate cut.”
OTHER
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: A PBOC Reporter Points to Threats for World #2 Economy * What Big
Economies Got Right, or Wrong, After Crisis * Central Banks Move Again to Boost
Global Economy * Dudley Denies ‘Serious Problems’ in Fed’s Regulation * ECB’s Nowotny Says No
Rush for New Measures
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Stock
markets are well and truly back in an all-news-is-good news mood. On Friday,
they rallied on signs of more economic stimulus, boosted by a rate cut in China
and then by signals from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that he
would seek to provide more monetary stimulus to the struggling eurozone
economy. Monday has begun with more gains in Asia, which is playing catch-up to
the Chinese after-the-bell news on Friday, and then more again in Europe as
German business sentiment data showed a surprise gain.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Nordea
Morning – Nordea
FI
Eye-Opener: Whatever it takes and fast – Nordea
German
10-year yield falls back below 0.80% – more room on the downside in the near
term. Intra-Euro-area spreads narrow. European equities surge higher. Draghi
emphasizes the need for quick action. Rate cuts reach China. German Ifo and Euro-area inflation
ahead. Plenty of issuance activity.
FX: US'
'best interests' redux – Nordea
The 4%
stronger USD this year, impact on inflation - is it enough to worry Fed? Maybe
not yet. But... what else?
From the
floor: Draghi provides a lift – TradingFloor
Though
markets continue to bask in the glow of Mario Draghi's dovish comments on
Friday as well as China'sd surprise rate cut we could be in for a pretty
subdued week given that today is a national holiday in Japan and the US celebrates Thanksgiving on
Thursday.
Expect
everything Australian to rally this week from the AUD to the beaten down
equities, also we are particularly bullish on Chinese and Hong Kong-listed real
estate and bank names. Meanwhile with the USDJPY, all eyes on 120 and upside.
Likely to be consolidation and/or pullback before next surge up.
Daily
Shot: Draghi needs to pull another rabbit out of his hat – TradingFloor
One country
not facing major economic headwinds: New Zealand * US takes on Saudi Arabia as top oil producer * Why global
low growth and deflation risks may last for decades
Bailouts,
bail-ins and the banks: why we can’t afford another financial crisis – The
Guardian
Governments
are not flush enough to contemplate a second wave of bailouts, which leaves the
problem of too ‘big to fail’ unsolved
On the
hypothetical eventuality of no more petrodollars – FT
According
to Citi’s credit team, it would likely affect things a lot. Especially so in
the credit markets. Though, what’s really interesting … they believe the
effects of a petrodollar shortage may already be showing up in credit markets.
Instability
risk looms large despite G20 hopes – FT
Regulatory-driven
reduction in market liquidity is risk for real economy
Lies,
damned lies, and liquidity expectations – FT
Consider
this yet another warning to asset managers of the “those of you who don’t
adjust your liquidity expectations and reprice liquidity pronto, may soon
encounter huge problems we regulators will not be prepared to fix.”
What Big
Economies Got Right, or Wrong, After Crisis – WSJ
Why the U.S. and U.K. Have Fared Better Than Japan and Europe
The world
economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and emerging
markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising, according to a
Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.
Fed Now
Expected To Move Ahead Of The BoE – Alpha
Now
Changing
sentiment about who would move first and by how much has driven changes in the
£ / US$ exchange rate.
Commodities
Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Recovery in
2015, stabilising in 2016
OPEC
meeting – a real thriller for a change – Nordea
Thursday is
going to be the most interesting and nerve-racking day for a long time in the
oil market. The OPEC cartel, accounting for around 40% of the global oil
supply, will have its 166th meeting in Vienna, Austria, and the members for sure have some
difficult tasks to solve. We expect OPEC to cut its production quota to
29-29.5mb/d from 30mb/d, reflecting/indicating a production cut of around
1-1.5mb/d.
Sweden: Don´t be surprised if GDP surprises * SEK front-end:
Japanized, with no end in sight * SEK front-end: Covered vs. front-end curve * Covered
bonds: Double the yield in Denmark * Swedish bond index: Major impact
in linkers * Swedish budget: Revenge is sweet, would drive EUR/SEK higher * Cross-market:
Oil, USD, high yield & asset correlation
Global
policy mix turns more growth friendly – FT
Gavyn
Davies: It seems quite possible that, for the first time in half a decade,
global growth forecasts for 2015 will need to be revised upwards, not
downwards.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus
– Maanantai 24.11.2014 – Nordea
Kohta selviää pysyykö bensa halpana | Draghin puheet
näkyivät valuutta- ja korkomarkkinoilla | Venäjän vähittäismyynnin vuosikasvu
pysyi muuttumattomana
Miinuskorko kuppaa tallettajaa – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Ensimmäiset saksalaispankit piiskaavat jo suuria tallettajia
miinusmerkkisillä raippakoroilla – samaan tapaan kuin EKP piiskaa pankkeja
keskuspankkitalletusten miinuskorolla. Suomessakin pankkitilien reaalikorot
jäävät jo tuntuvasti pakkaselle. Näin syyttömät maksavat tahtomattaan kriisin
hintaa.
Sote-mallista on jo käytännön kokemuksia: "Tulokset
olivat aivan järkyttävät" – Verkkouutiset
Koko maahan suunnitteilla olevasta sote-mallista on jo
kokemusta Mänttä-Vilppulassa. Hoitoa ei saanut, kustannukset karkasivat ja
kokeilu päättyi kriisiin.
Näin monta "ultra-rikasta" Suomessa on - määrä
kasvoi Euroopan huippuvauhtia – TE
In memoriam: Ville Oksanen – Jarmo Keto
Pelottavan puolueen tunnusmerkkejä – otteita tavoitteista
– Tyhmyri
Demarit ja veronkierto ja Juncker – löyhäpäisyys ei
koskaan lakkaa hämmästyttämästä – Tyhmyri
Puolueiden välillä on eroja – Professorin
ajatuksia
Yksiä
äänestetään tunteen ja toisia asioiden perusteella
Yritystukiin lähes miljardi euroa – YLE
Viking Line kuittasi suurimmat tuet. Eniten kasvoivat
varustamo- ja telakkatuet, palkkatuet sekä uusiutuvan energian tuet.
Ihmelääke nuorisotyöttömyyteen – Saksan uusi
vientivaltti? – TalSa
Näkökulma Saksalainen huippumalli Euroopalle: nuoret
pääsevät töihin, yritykset saavat uusia työntekijöitä ja uutta verta.
Oppisopimusjärjestelmä on vapaaehtoinen, mutta siitä on kehittynyt yrityksille
paitsi sosiaalinen velvollisuus, myös taloudellinen menestystekijä.
Suomi varautuu jihadistien paluuseen – HS
Euroopassa mietitään parhaillaan vimmatusti, mitä taistelukentillä
radikalisoituneille tehdä. Vastausta ei tiedä vielä kukaan.
Veroparatiiseja riittää EU:ssa – YLE
EU sanoo taistelevansa veroparatiiseja vastaan. Työmaata
riittää aivan kotinurkilla. Euroedustaja Sirpa Pietikäisen (kok.) mukaan EU:n
28 jäsenmaasta 22 täyttää veroparatiisin määritelmän tai ainakin sallii
vääristävän verosuunnittelun. Ilmiön torjunta on jäsenmaiden omissa käsissä.