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ECONOMICS
Policy
Makers Must Do What Is Best for Their Economies While Weighing Global
Implications — Central Bankers – WSJ
Keynote
speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Chairman, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
and Governor, Sveriges Riksbank at the High-Level Meeting for the Americas, Lima, Peru, 3-5 November 2014.
Planetary
Economics: macroeconomic and international implications – Europp
/ LSE
Netherlands
Bank DNB Working Papers by Jakob de Haan, Jeroen Hessel and Niels Gilbert
Potential
output from a euro area perspective – ECB
European
Central Bank Occasional papers by Robert Anderton, Ted Aranki, Alistair Dieppe,
Catherine Elding, Stephan Haroutunian, Pascal Jacquinot, Valerie Jarvis,
Vincent Labhard, Desislava Rusinova, Béla Szörfi
Debt-overhang
banking crises – FED
The funny
thing is that both sides of this debate believe that it’s about credibility;
but they differ on what kind of credibility is crucial at this moment.
What
Lies Ahead for the Global Economy: A BRICS Perspective – PIIE
Mohamed A.
El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, delivers the Peterson Institute's
tenth Whitman Lecture
Monetary
policy and long-term trends – voxeu.org
There has
been a long-term downward trend in labour’s share of national income,
depressing both demand and inflation, and thus prompting ever more expansionary
monetary policies. This column argues that, while understandable in a
short-term business cycle context, this has exacerbated longer-term trends,
increasing inequality and financial distortions. Perhaps the most fundamental
problem has been over-reliance on debt finance. The authors propose policies to
raise the share of equity finance in housing markets; such reforms could be
extended to other sectors of the economy.
The
Shift and the Shocks: What We've Learned--and Have Still to Learn--from the
Financial Crisis – PIIE
Martin
Wolf, chief economics commentator for the Financial Times, presented his new
book, The Shift and the Shocks: What We've Learned—and Have Still to Learn—from
the Financial Crisis, on October 9, 2014, at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics (transcript)
The Euro
Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Belief – PIIE
Hans-Werner
Sinn, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Peterson Institute for International
Economics, Washington, DC, September 15, 2014
Why
Don’t We See More Macroeconomic Populism? – Krugman
/ NYT
The Fed
dog is not being wagged by the freshwater or saltwater academic tails – Long
and Variable
I typically
think of four main factors that determine whether or not an economy can
function efficiently as a single currency or economic zone. They primarily
determine the level of adjustments costs and how these costs are to be shared,
so that regions more able to bear the costs absorb a larger share of those
costs:
Wage
Growth of Part-Time versus Full-Time Workers – Macroblog
We find
that part-time workers as a group appear to experiencing a lower average wage
growth rate than full-time workers during the recovery from the Great Recession.
How
severe has the zero lower bound constraint been? – voxeu.org
Monetary
policy has not been severely constrained by the zero bound until mid-2011. The
results imply that the Fed could have done more to ease monetary policy between
2009 and 2011. These findings could also help explain why the fiscal stimulus
package adopted in 2009 did not bring the expected success.
INFLATION
/ DEFLATION
Inflation?
Deflation Is New Risk
– NYT
Decomposing
the velocity of money
– Sober
Look
Going
forward, as long as inflation remains low, we could continue to see reasonable
real GDP growth while the velocity of money remains depressed.
Fighting
the last war – mainly
macro
In the
grand scheme of things we should worry about inflation and debt, but right now
we are worrying about them too much and therefore failing to deal with more
pressing concerns.
Buttonwood:
Every man for himself
– The
Economist
Economic
policies are diverging in the developed world as deflation looms
IMF
International
Mensch Fund – Krugman
/ NYT
Facing up
to austerity mistakes.
The IMFs
evaluation of 2010 austerity – mainly
macro
IMF
Publishes Book on Staff Stress Testing Models – IMF
Toolkits to
Check Health of Financial Institutions and Systems
Guest
post: The case for sovereign reprofiling the IMF way, part one – FT
‘Reprofiling’
is a controversial word in the world of sovereign debt at the moment. The IMF
is gathering responses on a proposal to extend bond maturities when a country’s
debt looks like it might be unsustainable going into a programme.
SECULAR STAGNATION
Is
economic growth permanently lower? – Gavyn
Davies / FT
What
Secular Stagnation Isn’t – Krugman
/ NYT
The long
view – The
Economist
There has
been much talk in recent months of "secular stagnation" after the
former Treasury secretary Larry Summers made a speech on the issue in February.
The problem for the developed world has not arisen overnight.
Demography
and economics: Look past the past – voxeu.org
Most of the
world is now at the point where the support ratio is becoming adverse, and the
growth of the global workforce is slowing. This column argues that these
changes will have profound and negative effects on economic growth. This
implies that negative real interest rates are not the new normal, but rather an
extreme artefact of a series of trends, several of which are coming to an end.
By 2025, real interest rates should have returned to their historical
equilibrium value of around 2.5–3%.
Reflections
on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis' – voxeu.org
Lawrence Summers: The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are
suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers
– first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and
Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment
real interest rate coupled with low inflation could indefinitely prevent the
attainment of full employment.
The
world economy is flying with only one engine – The
Guardian
The pilots
of the global financial system must navigate menacing storm clouds, and fights
are breaking out among the passengers, writes Nouriel Roubini
BUSINESSPEOPLE ARE LOUSY ECONOMISTS
Business
vs. Economics – Krugman
/ NYT
Business
leaders often give remarkably bad economic advice, especially in troubled
times. And I think it’s important to understand why.
[2010] A
country is not a company – Krugman
/ HBR
Why
businesspeople don’t necessarily make great economists