Mads
Koefoed: No big surprises expected from ECB meeting * Draghi will likely
address continually low inflation * Increased financial sector confidence could
boost lending
Three
things to watch at today’s ECB meeting – FT
Draghi’s
management style * Balance sheet target * No BoJ-like big bazooka
Investors
on ECB Easing: Now, 2015, or Never? – WSJ
The
possibility of quantitative easing as early as this week has been considered
slim for months, but a majority of investors expect sovereign QE in the first
quarter of 2015, or potentially in the second quarter. That said, a relevant 20%
doesn’t expect ECB quantitative easing to be announced at all.
Kuroda
Has Draghi in a Bind as Euro Soars Against Yen – BB
QE is no
silver bullet – The
Economist
Falling oil
prices, banking system, fiscal transfer union
Five
Questions for Mario Draghi From Asset Purchases to Banks – BB
By how much
will the ECB expand its balance sheet * Is more stimulus on the way * Is there a
rift in the Governing Council * What is the outlook for inflation in the euro
area * What’s next for Europe’s banks?
OECD urged
significant monetary easing for the euro area at a time when the region’s
central bankers are increasingly divided in the face of a slowing economy.
ECB to
wait for stimulus to sink in, Draghi style in limelight – Reuters
PREVIOUSLY
ECB preview: Moment of truth, but not just yet – TradingFloor
ECB will
wait for new forecasts and TLTRO’s outcome in December * Internally the ECB is
a mess of opposing views * Corporate bond purchases and a minimal QE at some
point
Intrigue in Frankfurt – Global
Macro Trading
This is a clearly
orchestrated leak by the anti-QE side, timed to impact the upcoming ECB
meeting, possibly to head off the risk that additional stimulus is conducted
over the heads of the prior dissenters.
Orphanides
also wonders what happened to the ECB’s monetary pillar – Market
Monetarist
Euro
Area Limping Toward Deflation Fuels QE Calls as ECB Meets – BB
The euro
area is edging closer to the moment that deflation risks become reality.
Martin
Wolf: Warnings from Japan for the eurozone – FT
Europe has been unwilling to address the
structural excess savings of creditor countries
Wolfgang Munchau: Eurozone stagnation is a greater threat than debt – FT
Monetary
policy can boost markets in the short run, but this cannot be sustained
indefinitely
ECB Needs Japanese Lessons – View
/ BB
The
required swelling of the ECB balance sheet will not happen without government
bond purchases on a much grander scale than in 2010-2012.
The ECB
confronts the dark past of its new home with sensitivity – FT
The ECB
helped create a memorial to Jews beneath its new HQ
Draghi
Set To Open at Least One New Chapter in ECB History – WSJ
The
"ECB Matrix" – ZH
Here are
the best "disappointment " and "delivery" trades ahead of
tomorrow's ECB meeting
ECB: Everything Can't Be – Marc to
Market
It may be
difficult for Draghi take fresh initiatives now. The second TLTRO is a month
away, and the take down is expected to be more than twice the first. The
covered bond purchase program is operational (it has even entered the new issue
market) and the ABS purchases will soon begin. There are some indications that
the pace of contraction in bank lending is continuing to slow. Both the supply
of credit and the demand is improving according to the ECB's own surveys. The
euro's decline will also be helpful.
Beecroft:
Why Draghi's feeling the heat – TradingFloor
Should
the ECB Follow the BOJ’s ‘Shock and Awe’? – WSJ
Quantitative
Easing for the People
– Project
Syndicate
It is now a
near certainty that, by the end of this year, falling energy and commodity
prices will push annual inflation in the eurozone below zero – well under the
ECB’s target of near 2%. Rather than continue to depend on misguided
conventional thinking, the ECB must pursue the right form of quantitative
easing.
Deep Divisions Emerge over ECB Quantitative Easing Plans – Spiegel
To prevent
dangerous deflation, the ECB is discussing a massive program to purchase
government bonds. Monetary watchdogs are divided over the measure, with some
alleging that central bankers are being held hostage by politicians.
ECB
preview - Waiting for the impact of the easing measures – Danske
Bank
We expect
the ECB to remain in wait-and-see mode at the meeting in November and we
believe the tone will be more dovish compared to the latest meeting in October.
Exclusive:
Central bankers to challenge Draghi on ECB leadership style – Reuters
National
central bankers in the euro area plan to challenge Draghi on Wednesday over
what they see as his secretive management style and erratic communication and
will urge him to act more collegially, ECB sources said.
Markets
Slide As European Central Bankers Mutiny – ZH
Pulling
the eurozone back from the brink – Bruegel
Whatever
its flaws, OMT is the closest thing to a safety net the eurozone has
Should
the ECB care about inflation differentials? – Bruegel
It is
crucial to keep the average inflation rate close to two percent so that
inflation differentials are possible without deflation in some parts of the
euro area, which in turn might endanger area-wide financial stability and price
stability.
Fed
heads one way, BoJ the other. What now for ECB? – Reuters
The ECB
should stop fearing the Germans – The
Economist
We are
hosting a round-table discussion on what the European Central Bank can do to
stave off deflation and boost growth in the euro zone. First up is Paul de
Grauwe of the London School of Economics.
The
Draghi Put on Trial
– Project
Syndicate
The European
Court of Justice will rule soon on the legality of the European Central Bank's
"outright monetary transactions" scheme to finance crisis-stricken
eurozone countries. But, instead of asking whether the ECB’s mandate allows it
to act as lender of last resort, EU leaders should be making the case for why
it should.
Draghi
Stress Tested as BOJ-Riksbank Moves Pressure ECB – BB
The extra
easing now leaves Draghi under pressure to intensify his own response to weak
inflation or surrender in a renewed global currency war that has policy makers
looking to jolt consumer prices by embracing weaker exchange rates.
Sources:
ECB to keep TLTRO terms unchanged unless economic picture darkens – Reuters
Draghi can only dream of moving like BOJ’s Kuroda – Reuters