@JanVonGerich
three months, Feb-5 2015, yield diff now 1.53, I pay if 1.8 touched, you pay if
1.26 touched. Ok? pic.twitter.com/Ucv1BlHX5r
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter
EUROPE
Merkel
says euro zone extremely fragile – Reuters
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday the euro zone was extremely fragile
and made clear Europe's biggest economy would not borrow more to invest, resisting pressure
from some of its partners to do more to boost growth.
José
Manuel Barroso: ‘Not everything I did was right’ – FT
On his
final day, the former European Commission president explains his actions during
two terms
EU
auditor criticizes waste, urges tighter controls – Reuters
Almost
€7bn of last year’s EU budget paid out improperly – FT
The EU's
auditor called on the bloc's new executive on Wednesday to seek better value
for taxpayers' money as its report on the 2013 accounts estimated that up to 9
billion euros ($11.27 billion) may have been misspent.
Jim
O’Neill: Italy needs growth in nominal GDP to stop
its debt burden from rising any further. To do so it needs Germany's help.
The
European Commission has downgraded Eurozone growth and says it will do all it
can to promote growth and jobs. Spain has reforms in place but is
ignoring bureaucracy and its unemployment remains high. Meanwhile, Italy talks tough, and not only ignores
the black economy, it and wants to spend more.
Rashomon
in euro land – The
Economist
Schuman and
Monnet’s dream is becoming a nightmare and European policymakers are stuck with
contradictory and self-serving explanations for the ongoing tragedy… Will
full-blown QE save the euro zone? Maybe, but not for the reason you may think.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
preview: Moment of truth, but not just yet – TradingFloor
ECB will
wait for new forecasts and TLTRO’s outcome in December * Internally the ECB is
a mess of opposing views * Corporate bond purchases and a minimal QE at some
point
Intrigue
in Frankfurt – Global
Macro Trading
This is a
clearly orchestrated leak by the anti-QE side, timed to impact the upcoming ECB
meeting, possibly to head off the risk that additional stimulus is conducted
over the heads of the prior dissenters.
Orphanides
also wonders what happened to the ECB’s monetary pillar – Market
Monetarist
Euro
Area Limping Toward Deflation Fuels QE Calls as ECB Meets – BB
The euro
area is edging closer to the moment that deflation risks become reality.
Europe has been unwilling to address the
structural excess savings of creditor countries
Wolfgang
Munchau: Eurozone stagnation is a greater threat than debt – FT
Monetary
policy can boost markets in the short run, but this cannot be sustained
indefinitely
ECB
Needs Japanese Lessons – View
/ BB
The
required swelling of the ECB balance sheet will not happen without government
bond purchases on a much grander scale than in 2010-2012.
The ECB
confronts the dark past of its new home with sensitivity – FT
The ECB
helped create a memorial to Jews beneath its new HQ
Draghi
Set To Open at Least One New Chapter in ECB History – WSJ
The
"ECB Matrix" – ZH
Here are the
best "disappointment " and "delivery" trades ahead of tomorrow's
ECB meeting
ECB: Everything Can't Be – Marc to
Market
It may be
difficult for Draghi take fresh initiatives now. The second TLTRO is a month away, and the
take down is expected to be more than twice the first. The covered bond purchase program is
operational (it has even entered the new issue market) and the ABS purchases
will soon begin. There are some
indications that the pace of contraction in bank lending is continuing to slow. Both the supply of credit and the demand is
improving according to the ECB's own surveys. The euro's decline will also be helpful.
Beecroft:
Why Draghi's feeling the heat – TradingFloor
Should
the ECB Follow the BOJ’s ‘Shock and Awe’? – WSJ
Quantitative
Easing for the People
– Project
Syndicate
It is now a
near certainty that, by the end of this year, falling energy and commodity
prices will push annual inflation in the eurozone below zero – well under the ECB’s target of near 2%. Rather than continue to depend on
misguided conventional thinking, the ECB must pursue the right form of
quantitative easing.
Volume of
retail trade down by 1.3% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro area
retail sales fall more than expected in September – TradingFloor
Weak retail
sales due to mild autumn weather – Danske
Bank
Periphery
Business Cycle Monitor – Danske
Bank
UNITED STATES
MID-TERM ELECTIONS
Tough
road ahead for Obama as GOP win Senate – Reuters
Republicans
rode a wave of voter discontent to seize control of the Senate, dealing a
punishing blow to President Barack Obama that will limit his legislative agenda
for his last two years in office.
The clear
result of yesterday's mid-term election could be positive for markets in the
near term, but in the longer term it is unlikely to be a game changer in Washington politics. Political gridlock is
obviously negative for confidence in households and businesses, but this is not
a new negative factor. Despite irresponsible Washington politics over the past several
years, above-trend growth in the US economy seems solid on track. As a
result, Fed lift-off is no longer a matter of if, but when.
FEDERAL RESERVE
Fed
Critics Say ’10 Letter Warning Inflation Still Right – BB
Signatories
of a letter sent to then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in 2010
warning of the risks associated with the bank’s policy of quantitative easing
are standing by their claims -- even as the biggest U.S. companies are
flourishing, inflation is muted and holding Treasuries has been one of the best
trades out there.
Fed’s
Kocherlakota: Raising Rates in 2015 Would Be a Mistake – WSJ
Fed’s
Rosengren Says More Public Disclosure Needed in Repo Market – WSJ
US Services Sector Slumps As
Business Outlook Nears 2-Year Lows – ZH
ISM
non-manufacturing slips to four-month low of 57.1 in October – TradingFloor
ISM Non-Manufacturing:
Slower Growth in October – dshort
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Index decreased to 57.1% in October – Calculated
Risk
ISM
Services Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke
ASIA
Kuroda
Sets No Limits in BOJ Campaign to Spur Inflation – BB
Bank of
Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda highlighted his determination to stoke inflation in
the world’s third-biggest economy, saying there’s no limit to measures he could
take to reach its price target.
Fiscal
credibility isn't crucial right now, anti-deflation credibility is.
OTHER
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Good Morning Ms. Yellen, Rand Paul on Line One * Fed’s Bullard Sees No
Need for New Stimulus * Ultralow Inflation Hits Europe in Different Ways, Complicating Fix * BOJ Governor
Defends “Monetary Bazooka” Approach * Ruble Sinks to Fresh Lows as Russian
Central Bank Scales Back Interventions
GOP’s midterm
win in focus, but global economy bigger concern. BoJ’s Kuroda defended expanded
asset-purchase program and made it clear he would do more in the future if
inflation data continue to miss the target.
FINNISH
POLITIIKKA
Ville-niminen vihreä ihmiskilpi – Matias
Turkkila / PS
Sanna Ukkola: Vaalihermot pinnassa – Sanna
Ukkola / YLE
Lähestyvät vaalit saavat tunteet pintaan ja hermot kireälle.
Toimittajatkin joutuvat nyt puolueiden tulilinjalle, kirjoittaa Sanna Ukkola.
Synkästä syksystä epätietoisuuden talveen – Vesa
Varhee / TalSa
Vuoden loppu lähestyy, ja epävarmuus Suomen kehityksen
suunnasta pahenee. Vakavasti otettavat poliittiset avaukset loistavat,
epäilemättä vaalitaktisista syistä, poissaolollaan. Puolueet ovat haluttomia
paljastamaan äänestäjilleen tilanteen vakavuutta tai sitä, että tarjolla on
vain karvaita lääkkeitä.
TALOUSNavigaattori: Vaikeat ajat jatkuvat Suomessa kaupan ja
palveluiden aloilla
– Nordea
Maailmantalouden nousu on jatkunut vanhojen teollisuusmaiden
johdolla. Yhdysvallat ja Iso-Britannia ovat kelpo vedossa. Niiden talouskasvun
vahvuus yllätti myönteisesti kolmannella neljänneksellä, työmarkkinat
parantavat koko ajan, ja keskuspankit kyttäävät varpaillaan oikeaa hetkeä
rahapolitiikan kiristämiselle. Fed lopetti viime viikolla arvopapereiden ostot
ja hankkii uusia enää siinä tahdissa kuin nyt hallussa olevia erääntyy.
Kasvun prosentit – Näin korjaamme osinko- ja pääomatuloverotuksen
– EVA
Pääomatuloja pitäisi verottaa lievemmin, esittää EVA
– TE
"Monimutkaiseksi rapautunut" osinko- ja
pääomatuloverojärjestelmä pitäisi uudistaa rakenteeltaan yhdenmukaiseksi
Korkman: Nollakorotuslinja jatkukoon yli toistaiseksi
sovitun – YLE
Sixten Korkmanin mielestä nollakorotusten lisäksi voisi
harkita työeläkemaksujen alentamista tilapäisesti. Julkisen sektorin
leikkauksista hän ei taantuman aikana innostu.
Suhdannenäkymät talvikaudelle vaatimattomat – EK
Odotukset nopeasta käänteestä parempaan ovat hiipuneet
Mitä tehdä, jos talous ei elvy koskaan? – KL
OP-Pohjolan pääekonomisti: Sekulaarisessa stagnaatiossa
tarvitaan kysyntäelvytystä. Toisaalta, jos potentiaalisen tuotannon kasvu on
hidastunut, tarvitsee sopeutua elämään aiempaa matalamman tulotason kanssa.
Miksi Suomen vienti ei vedä ja mitä sille voi tehdä – lyhyt
kertaus – Tyhmyri
Varman tj: "Suomi ja Japani kohta samassa
veneessä" – Demari
Varman Murto Demokraatissa: "Talouspolitiikan
varasto on tyhjä" – TE
Työn loppu ja keskiluokan eroosio, osa IV – Takkirauta