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EUROPE
Commission's Politicalness Is Already Causing
Anxiety in the ECB – euinside
Italy: Rexit? Why the upcoming referendum
matters – Nordea
In a worst-case scenario
(though in our view not most likely) Prime Minister Renzi loses, steps down,
first uncertainty takes over and then a euro-sceptic government. The road
towards rating downgrades and loss of eligibility for the ECB’s asset purchases
might not be that long for Europe’s largest debtor.
ECB’s Knot Sees Boost From QE Running to 2020
With Reinvestment – BB
Dutch policy maker makes
remarks at conference in Vienna * Bond-buying currently scheduled to run to at
least March 2017
STATE OF
THE UNION SPEECH
Junckers: The State of the Union – EC
Towards a Better Europe
– A Europe that Protects, Empowers and Defends
Juncker: Brexit must not
‘dominate’ EU agenda – Politico
Brexit not the end of
European Union, Juncker says – Reuters
State of Juncker’s
Union: What he has (and hasn’t) delivered – Politico
Juncker proposes EU
military headquarters – BBC
Juncker uses State of
the Union to try to heal EU divisions – FT
Jean-Claude Juncker: The
EU is in ‘crisis’ – Politico
Jean-Claude Juncker’s
(not quite) JFK moment – Politico
UNITED STATES
10 reasons why we believe the Fed will not hike
this year – Danske
Bank
Fed Tea Leaves, Brainard Edition: Is It About
Rates, or Ammo? – WSJ
Dangerous Donald vs Crooked Hillary – Nordea
Clinton’s lead in the
polls is shrinking and considering the possible election of a protectionist
president and that polls got Brexit wrong, markets seem too complacent in our
view. A pick-up in market volatility around the election still seems like a
good bet.
OTHER
Japan: Has the BoJ
reached its limits? – ABN
AMRO
We do not think that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reached its limits, but
there is limited room left for aggressive easing
Monthly Commodity Update – ABN
AMRO
Commodities in anticipation of Fed rate hikes
Satyajit Das: The
Closing of the World Economy – View
/ BB
Governments have been leading the attack on globalization.
REGULARS
Danske Daily
– Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Brainard breaks negative sentiment *
Higher yields and weaker EUR * Swedish inflation today - key to Riksbank’s
October decision
Morning Markets –
TF
European equity markets are set to
open in negative territory Wednesday after the oil-inspired wave or risk
aversion that erupted in Wall Street yesterday washed into Asian overnight
sending most local indices into lower ground.
Euro wrap-up – Daiwa
Daily Market Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Precarious Stabilization
Daily Market Comment –
Macro Man
Another rout
Daily Press Summary
– Open
Europe
Juncker: There can be no single
market à la carte * Tusk: EU should aim to keep “best possible relations” with
UK after Brexit * German Foreign Minister doubts EU-US trade deal will be
concluded before Obama leaves office * Hungary and Luxembourg trade barbs over
refugee crisis * Draghi urges to pay more attention to “redistributive aspects”
of European integration * Italy set to downgrade GDP growth forecasts for
second time this year * Greece to get next tranche of bailout cash by
mid-October, Economy Minister says
Brussels Playbook –
Politico
State of the Union day — Tusk’s ten
commandments — New ECA president
US Open – ZH
Global Market Rout Abates As Bond
Selloff Pauses, Oil Rebounds
Frontrunning
– ZH
FX Update
– TF
USDJPY tested key technical
resistance overnight but the rally was turned back in European trading on the
uncertainty surrounding next week’s FOMC and BoJ meetings. Market temperature
remains high after bonds and equities weakened again in unison yesterday.
From the Floor –
TF
Last week's oil rally seems a dim
and distant memory as the IEA predicts the supply glut to last deep into 2017.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP
lataa akkujaan * USA:n pienyrittäjien luottamus pysyi kohtuullisen hyvänä *
Tänään julkaistava euroalueen teollisuustuotanto laskee Saksan myötä
Maahanmuuttajaryhmien työurissa suuria
eroja – Eläketurvakeskus
Maahanmuuttajien
asema työmarkkinoilla on parantunut merkittävästi 1990-luvulta. Erot ryhmien välillä
ovat kuitenkin suuria. Vähiten työllistä aikaa on kertynyt Lähi-idästä tai
Somaliasta muuttaneille naisille. Suurin työllisen ajan osuus on Virosta
saapuneilla nuorilla miehillä, käy ilmi ainutlaatuisesta
rekisteritutkimuksesta.