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EUROPE
While the press largely
share his assessment and praise his clear-headedness, it believes the measures
he has put forward are insufficient.
GERMANY
AfD deals fresh blow to
Angela Merkel in Berlin vote – Politico
Angela Merkel drops the
‘we can do it’ slogan – Politico
3 things you didn’t know
about the German economy – Nordea
BRATISLAVA
SUMMIT
Europe’s ‘play it safe’
summit – Politico
EU Leaders Set Course
for Bloc After Brexit Vote – WSJ
Bratislava EU meeting:
Merkel says bloc in 'critical situation' – BBC
Renzi rocks Merkel’s
boat – Politico
Brexit Forces the EU to
Make a 'Roadmap' to Avert Collapse – BB
Remarks by President
Donald Tusk after the Bratislava summit – EU
Bratislava Declaration
and Roadmap – EU
Rebellion against the Status Quo in EU* - euinside
UNITED
KINGDOM
Tusk: UK to launch
Brexit by January or February – Politico
EU's Tusk Says May
Expects to Start Brexit Talks by February – BB
Larry Elliott: How to
solve the chronic UK current account deficit – The Guardian
Slovakia says Europe
will make Brexit ‘very painful’ for UK – FT
EU officials 'believe
Britain will give up on Brexit if negotiations tough' – The Telegraph
Theresa May:
Uncontrolled migration hurts refugees, governments – Politico
UNITED STATES
We continue to expect
the Fed to pass on raising interest rates this week. Although the updated dot
plot will likely reduce the expected number of rate hikes this year, we believe
it will confirm the Fed’s intention to move in December.
OTHER
Central banks have shouldered too much of the burden and are running out
of ammunition.
It's all about the Bank of Japan this week even though the Fed generally
always takes centre stage. What the BoJ does or does not do could have a
further impact on G3 yields.
The Bank of Japan and US Federal Open Market Committee are both
announcing their latest respective policy decisions this Wednesday as market
correlations break down and investors question the sustainability of the status
quo.
The Fed, the BoJ... big policy signals ahead. Yield curve steepening
caused panic - not for long. The EURUSD support close, and the GBP divergence
not to last.
Dissonant markets? Special features on "Covered interest parity
lost: understanding the cross-currency basis", "Foreign exchange
market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?", "Domestic financial
markets and offshore bond financing" and "The ECB's QE and euro
cross-border bank lending"
Markets recovered quickly from the shock of the Brexit vote. Central
banks have exerted a calming influence and have eased further in recent months
as dissonant markets raised questions about the outlook and the pricing of
underlying risks.
REGULARS
Week ahead: Fed on hold; BoJ to
ease? Banks send 10Y yields lower. The dollar jumped on CPI. Waiting for Fed.
Markets are bubbling under ahead of
the key meetings Wednesday and sterling is once again looking over its shoulder
at 1.30 after a stern warning from the Bundesbank president and prime minister
Theresa May hinting at article 50 being invoked in early 2017.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
Dollar Begins Important Week on
Softer Note
Overcapacity
Tusk expects Theresa May to trigger
Article 50 in January or February 2017, as Slovak PM warns UK of “very
difficult” EU exit talks * Post-Brexit EU re-launch summit reveals
disagreements over migration and growth policies * Germany‘s traditional
parties suffer losses in Berlin state election, as AfD enters tenth of 16
regional parliaments * Over 100,000 people march across Germany to protest EU
trade deals with Canada and US * Bundesbank President says City will lose
‘passporting’ rights if UK leaves single market * May to call for “first safe country”
policy for asylum seekers in speech to UN * New survey suggests UK companies
scaled back investment plans after Brexit vote * UK threatens to veto EU
defence plans if they duplicate NATO’s role
Juncker YouTube drama — Bratisblaba
— Vestager does DC
Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As
Oil Rises, Dollar Drops
The USD rallied hard into Friday’s
close as the core US CPI rose to match its highest level since the global
financial crisis in August. The most notable decliner was sterling on May’s
apparent intention to invoke Article 50 the formal step toward an eventual
Brexit early next year.
Asian equity markets and US futures
finished Monday's sessions modestly higher despite a weaker close on Wall
Street Friday and the explosions in New York over the weekend Edmund Liu
reports from the Singapore trading floor for Saxo Bank's regular morning call.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed pitäytyy
vielä koronnostosta keskiviikkona * Japanin keskuspankki laskenee ohjauskorkoa
keskiviikkona * Norjan keskuspankki pitää korot ennallaan torstaina