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EUROPE
Merkel Faces Home-State Defeat Over Immigration – BB
AfD running
neck-and-neck with Merkel’s CDU ahead of election * Northeast state of
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania votes Sunday
UNITED
KINGDOM
Theresa May’s Brexit
choice – Simon Wren-Lewis
Where team May stands on
Brexit – Politico
UK inflation is about to
take off – but by how much? – Reuters
Sterling Surges After
U.K. Manufacturing Survey Smashes Expectations – WSJ
UK manufacturers shrug
off Brexit vote – Nordea
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
We do not expect the ECB
to change its monetary policy stance on 8 September. While the continuously low
inflation could merit further easing, the ECB is assumed to wait until December
before taking some of its Council Members deeper into their discomfort zone.
However, we may see technical changes to the asset purchase programme already
now. Hints to further easing should favour lower yields and a weaker euro. We
expect only small revisions to the staff projections.
The ECB’s 2016 Sintra
Forum on Central Banking focused on the international monetary and financial
system. In this column, the organisers of the forum highlight some of the main
points from the discussions, including concerns that the world economy may be
suffering from a shortage of safe assets and proposals for which areas
international regulatory reforms should be further developed.
UNITED STATES
5 Things to Watch in the August Jobs Report – WSJ
ISM Manufacturing index
decreased to 49.4 in August – Bill McBride
OTHER
A US rate rise in September makes sense for a number of reasons: it would
allow it the option of hiking again in December, it would help the Eurozone and
Japan to weaken their currencies further. it would strengthen the much-diluted
Fed credibility
IMF Staff Note to G-20
on Global Prospects and Policy Challenges – IMF
REGULARS
Lower oil prices; mixed Chinese
PMIs; ISM today * US ISM to ease concerns * USD rally loses steam * US Treasury
10Y yield erases the Jackson Hole gains
Yesterday's ADP jobs data did not
take the US off-piste in terms of a potential rate hike and today's
manufacturing ISM and jobless claims prints represent the final data points
ahead of tomorrow's NFP. With the USD rally still very much in force the
calendar is the only thing with the ability to stop markets from forecasting a
rate hike from the Fed.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
A Couple of Surprises to Start the
New Month
Thursday bullet points
Theresa May suggests UK will not
seek “off-the-shelf” model for new relationship with EU and stresses need for
controls on EU immigration * Referendum debate criticised for leaving voters
“ill-informed” * Deutsche Bank boss: London will remain top financial hub, but
may look “very different” after Brexit * UK manufacturing rebounds strongly in
August beating expectations * Davis: There will be no return to the past in
Ireland * Irish government remains split on Apple ruling * Right-wing populist
AfD overtakes Merkel’s CDU ahead of upcoming regional election * Rajoy fails in
first bid to win second term as Spanish PM * Austria suggests stopping TTIP
negotiations and starting afresh after US Presidential elections * Home Office
tests online system to speed up permanent residence applications from EU
nationals * Brexit vote hits Ryanair profits
Merkel’s soft offensive — iFailure,
Apple’s crash landing — TTIP mess
Global Stocks Rise, Metals Jump On Strong
Chinese Data; Pound Surges On Record UK Mfg Spike
The US dollar has reached pivotal
areas as tomorrow’s US jobs report is likely to set the tone for the market
until the September 21 FOMC meeting. Today’s UK Manufacturing PMI will tell us
whether sterling’s rally attempt can turn into a full-on squeeze.
The dollar has consolidated Thursday
ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls and now its down to the kingpin report to
deliver a number that could be pivotal for so many things.
FINNISH
Kiinan
PMI-luvut rauhoittavat markkinoita – ainakin toistaiseksi * Brasilian
presidentti Rousseff äänestettiin ulos virasta * Euroalueen inflaatio polki
elokuussa paikallaan * Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuuden luottamus (ISM)