Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
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LAST WEEK
Gold
Tops Bonds, Stocks In Week When Fed Crushed Economic Growth Hopes
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Global Week Ahead – BB
Clinton-Trump
Debate, Musk on Mars * Fed officials back on road; personal spending leads U.S.
data * Algiers forum gives OPEC ministers chance to talk oil prices
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
U.S.
presidential contest takes center stage for investors
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
Jeff
Miller
The
calendar has a lot of data, but the FOMC meeting is over. The market waits for
the next big event. We will soon have another jobs report, but Monday’s
presidential debate overshadows the other news. The news cycles this week will
be all about the election, and the financial press will be no different.
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
Japan: BoJ adopts new method. Credibility
is crucial. This is probably the reason behind the co-existence of two
redundant targets. US: The FOMC has something for every body: a bit of status
quo, a bit of dovishness, a bit of hawkishness. That surprising mix was cheered
by financial markets. Euro area: The PSPP parameters - Draghi announced the
creation of committees “to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation
of [the] purchase programme".
The
big central banks have all had their air time in recent weeks. The market
perception seems to be that while central banks are nearing the end of the
easing road, the risk of a hawkish turn is limited. Risk is on. There are no
hugely important key figures in the calendar for the coming week and focus
turns to the first presidential debate between US presidential candidates Trump
and Clinton as well as an informal OPEC meeting
US:
PCE inflation, which could be important for the Fed’s decision on whether to
hike soon or not. Nine FOMC members are scheduled to speak. Euro area: Private
sector lending should confirm Draghi’s view that the monetary transmission ‘has
never worked better’, while inflation should rise but this is due to the higher
oil price.
Political
uncertainty, monetary/fiscal policies and the economic cycle will be the
driving market forces in the autumn * Most US observers appear convinced that
Clinton will win the election; we expect elevated political uncertainty will
prevail on both sides of the Atlantic * Major central banks will maintain an
ultra-loose policy stance while the cycle is heading lower led by the US *
Global interest rates to stay low; the USD to weaken medium term * Equities are
a sell on rallies led by the softer US cycle and weak earnings.
US:
The hawks’ wings will soon be clipped * Canada: How durable is the recovery? *
Asia: Building momentum in China’s economy? * Europe: Draghi on inflation watch
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
Taiwan’s
export orders bounce strongly: early sign of global IT pick up? * The US
Federal Reserve is getting increasingly divided, but equity markets interpret
dot-plot changes as effective easing * Chinese data becoming more consistently
positive * Europe’s services-sector business confidence softens, while
manufacturing optimism improves
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
Politics
to Overshadow Economics in the Week Ahead
High-yielders
facing wave of volatility: The central bank meetings of September 21 saw a
sharp market reaction with the yen soaring while the USD was sold off. Taking a
broader view we may be facing the end of the reach-for-yield trend as
volatility rises.