Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
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LAST WEEK
VIXtermination
Trumps Deutsche Damage, Dismal Data; But Stocks End Week Weak
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
5
Things to Watch in US Economics Calendar – WSJ
Fed,
Clinton-Trump Debate Prep * BOJ sets rates; housing tops U.S. data; Mylan CEO
testifies * Leaders gather for UN; Draghi, Carney and Poloz will speak
Trade,
Roaming, Google
Fed
meeting grabs spotlight amid volatility comeback
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
Jeff
Miller
The
calendar has very little important data. The highlight is the FOMC announcement
and press conference on Wednesday. Even though the Fed is not expected to
change course, bonds have gotten much weaker, sending the ten-year note yield
higher. This effect is gaining notice. Should we expect a further bond selloff?
EcoWeek – BNP
Paribas
EU: Jean-Claude
Juncker wants to keep institutions in flux. Donald Tusk calls for the heads of
State to better coordinate their actions. US:
FOMC members more or less agree on the economic diagnosis and the need for
prudence. Yet they are still divided over what prudence means and what form it
should take: gradually raise rates or maintain the status quo?
Market
developments over the past week were yet another reminder that central banks
remain the main guiding light for financial markets. Thus, volatility returned
to the market as an interest rate hike by the Fed as early as next week was
taken into consideration, then dismissed, then considered again. The coming
week could provide some intense market action with policy decisions from both
the Fed and the Bank of Japan (see our expectations below).
Wednesday:
Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meet. Friday: September manufacturing
purchasing manager indices
Risk
markets face new headwind from loss of momentum in business cycle * Fed on hold
this year as economy slows again * Bond yields to stay very low * EUR/USD range
to continue
US:
a dovish surprise from the Fed? Asia: high expectations for further BoJ action
* Europe: still not looking at the right Brexit evidence * Latam: political
risk still dominates
Rate
Hikes Will Be the Least of Market Worries
A
Fed interest rate hike does not look likely next week. We expect a hike in December, though the
case for higher interest rates in general is far from convincing. Meanwhile,
the BoJ is likely to announce a monetary easing package. The combination of a
Fed on hold and BoJ stimulus could start to reverse bond market worries of an
exit from easy monetary policy
Speculators
Remain Mostly Unswayed by the News
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
Punctuated
Equilibrium and the Forces of Movement
Fireworks
are inevitable next week and traders should tread with caution as the Bank of
Japan and FOMC meetings on September 21 will drive trading themes across all
markets.