EUROPE
Europe turns on
spending taps as austerity comes to an end – FT
Bloc
embraces fiscal stimulus to combat sharp economic slowdown
Eurozone: Don’t
mention the ‘r-word’ just yet – ING
A
reversal of some one-offs could bring slightly higher growth to the Eurozone in
the second quarter, but the risks of US tariffs on European cars, as well as
Brexit could yet be another brake on activity. With inflation unlikely to pick
up much, there’s little need for monetary tightening from the ECB
Editorial: Europe
Needs Competition More Than Industrial Giants – BB
The
backlash against the Siemens-Alstom ruling threatens the EU’s biggest strength.
George Soros: Europe,
Please Wake Up
– Project
Syndicate
The
first step to defending Europe from its enemies, both internal and external, is
to recognize the magnitude of the threat they present. The second is to awaken
the sleeping pro-European majority and mobilize it to defend the values on
which the EU was founded.
Leonid Bershidsky:
The European Election Won’t Break the EU – BB
Even
if anti-establishment forces win a third of seats in the European Parliament,
they’re unlikely to cooperate enough to cause major disruption.
Italy: Falling
deeper
– ING
Poor
December industrial production data adds to the risk of another GDP contraction
in 1Q19, and pushes our average GDP growth forecast for 2019 down to a
miserable 0.1%
It is time to worry about Germany’s economy – The Economist
The
country’s economic golden age could be coming to an end
Germany's SPD
restores working-class appeal before regional votes – Reuters
SPD
unveiled a position paper on Sunday that calls for more generous state
allowances for the unemployed, children and pensioners, seeking to appeal to
working class voters in four regional elections this year.
Spain Takes an
Economic Gamble on an Unprecedented Wage Hike – BB
Government
has pushed through a 22% increase in minimum wage * With pace of expansion
slowing, impact of move is uncertain
Nordea Investor
Complaints Reveal How Much Trouble Bank Is In – BB
The
bank has yet to turn its business around after deep cuts * Nordea’s cuts can’t
keep pace with the bank’s sinking revenue
UNITED STATES
US: Biding its
time
– ING
Trade
policy remains critical to the outlook. If the US strike deals with the EU and
China the Fed will hike interest rates again. But if it fails, the story could
be very different…
The Green New Deal
Is Not a Policy. It’s a Manifesto. – BB
For
the Democratic Party and the nation as a whole, the era of small government is
ending.
OTHER
Global Trade:
Downs and ups? –
ING
February
could be the turning point in the ongoing trade war if the US and China cut a
deal and if the US administration decides against hiking tariffs on cars.
Unfortunately, we’re increasingly inclined to think trade tensions will get
worse before they get better
Big Read: Global economy: Why central bankers blinked – FT
Amid
slower growth in China, Brexit and trade disputes, banks are putting the brakes
on rate rises
February Economic
Update –
ING
A
dramatic softening in the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric on monetary policy,
coupled with encouraging signals from the US-China trade talks have boosted
market risk appetite, but we are approaching key dates that will be critical
for the global economic outlook. Will President Trump stick with what he has
won already or will he gamble for a bigger victory to take to the electorate
for the 2020 election? The odds of the latter are rising. If we do see an
escalation of trade tensions, the global growth story will deteriorate, having
broad-based implications for financial markets and currencies.
China: The trade
war is not over
– ING
The
Chinese economy is weakening on several fronts and not just because of the
US-China trade war. In response, the government is looking for ways to boost
consumption. Tax cuts may not be enough to avoid a softening in the labour
market...
Where China’s
growth is headed in 2019 – BlackRock
Trump Shouldn’t
Take the Easy Way Out Over China – BB
The
country’s pernicious debt load and rapidly weakening economy mean the U.S. has
more leverage in trade talks now than it ever had before.
Letting Trump
Impose Tit-for-Tat Tariffs Would Be Disastrous – BB
The
Reciprocal Trade Act could blow up the free-trade system.
Swiss Franc Flash
Crashes
– ZH
Is Iran’s
Revolution Having a Mid-Life Crisis? – BB
As
Iran marks 40 years since the overthrow of the Shah, the country’s economy is
riddled with cronyism and mismanagement.
Editorial: Iran’s
40 Years of Isolation – BB
It’s
time leaders of the Islamic Republic looked for ways to rejoin the world.
REGULARS
Five Things to
Start Your Day Asia –
BB
Eco Day Asia – BB
China's
Big Test, 22% Wage Increase, Slow Brexit Boats * IMF stands ready to support
Pakistan, says Christine Lagarde * Turkey’s food inflation fight spreads with
fines, raids
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing
– FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Rescuing
the eurozone budget: The blueprint is already far more advanced than anything
that’s emerged from stuttering negotiations in Brussels
Brussels Edition – BB
Brussels Playbook – Politico
5Stars
plunge in Abruzzo, voters DGAF — Catalonia’s back — Hogan in Oz
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
US-China
trade talks continue in Beijing
Eco Day Europe – BB
U.K.
GDP, ECB Chief Economist, China's Holiday Spending * Spain takes an economic
gamble on an unprecedented wage hike * Turkey’s food inflation fight spreads
with fines, raids,
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Five Things to Start
Your Day US
– BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
Global
Stocks, US Futures Jump On Fresh Trade Optimism, Dollar Surge Enters 8th Day
Eco Day US – BB
Krugman
Warning, U.K.'s Brexit Jitters, Spanish Wages * Krugman sees U.S. recession
risk with little Fed wiggle room * U.K. economy wilts as Brexit concern hits
business investment
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Tulevalla viikolla USA ja Kiina jatkavat kauppaneuvotteluja
ja USA:ssa etsitään sopua liittovaltion menojen rahoitukselle | Lisäksi
viikolla tulossa Riksbankin kokous ja BKT-lukuja Saksasta | Venäjän
keskuspankki piti odotetusti korkonsa ennallaan