EUROPE
Germany: Giving
the creeps
– Nordea
More
terrible confidence data from Germany add to worries that early 2019 will be no
better than the second half of last year. Sizable problems in the largest
economy of the Euro area seriously question the outlook for the entire area.
Editorial: Europe
Can’t Keep Coddling Iran – BB
Creating
a special purpose vehicle to skirt U.S. sanctions is an ill-conceived idea.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB grapples with
downside inflation risks – ABN
AMRO
Our
base case: ECB will signal that interest rates will be on hold for longer,
while also announcing a new TLTRO. Interest rates will ultimately be on hold
until December 2020. * Euro area’s manufacturing deeper into recession,
services sector more resilient.
ECB Watch: Too
relaxed
– Nordea
The
ECB remains rather optimistic about the outlook and is not close to announcing
new monetary policy measures. The mounting evidence of a slowdown will force
the central bank to really start discussing its options in March.
The ECB Has Policy
Makers, Not Superheroes – BB
Europe’s
economies are confusing, and we should manage expectations for monetary policy
– not least because politicians need to step up.
Annual inflation
down to 1.4% in the euro area – Eurostat
OTHER
China’s Australian
Coal Ban Is Less Than Meets the Eye – BB
Linking
a humdrum shift in industrial policy to geopolitical considerations may just be
a tactic to keep Beijing’s trading partners nervous.
Why We Can Forget
About a Rate Cut in China – BB
Borrowing
costs are already below neutral and lowering them won’t help funnel credit to
private businesses, researchers argue.
Central bank tone
moves asset prices
– voxeu
According
to Ben Bernanke, “monetary policy is 98% talk and 2% action”.Using data on
policy rate announcements and press conferences by the ECB between 1999 and
2017, this column shows that central bank tone affects asset prices, even after
controlling for policy actions and economic fundamentals. The results are
consistent with the idea that communication tone is a monetary policy tool that
allows central banks to affect the risk appetite of market participants and the
risk premia they require.
Europe Enters
Earnings Recession –
ZH
REGULARS
Five Things to
Start Your Day Asia –
BB
Five Things to
Start Your Day Europe
– BB
EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk
FirstFT Daily
Briefing –
FT
Brussels Briefing – FT
Transatlantic
tensions over dirty money - the US and EU governments are unhappy with
Brussels’ money laundering blacklist
Brussels Edition – BB
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Orbán
goes too far — Brexit communication fails — Latvian PM in town
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
German
economic activity data to be eyed closely
Eco Day Europe – BB
Tense
Trade Talks, Deflation Watch, SARB Inflation Goal * German foodies are shifting
their country’s inflation basket * U.S., China prepare for Trump meeting with
China trade chief
Daily Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
Five Things to
Start Your Day US –
BB
US Open Rundown – RANsquawk
US Open – ZH
"Sea
Of Green" Across World Markets As Trade Talk Optimism Storms Back
Eco Day US – BB
Trade
Talks, ECB Loans, German Data, Italy's Isolation * Trump to meet with China’s
trade chief Liu He on Friday * Nowotny says ECB has until summer to make call on
bank funding
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
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