Earnings Insight – Factset
World Economy’s
Week Ahead
– BB
Central
Bankers Take to Stage as Dovish Outlooks Spread * Fed, ECB, Canadian,
Australian officials scheduled to speak
Take Five: World
markets themes for the week ahead – Reuters
Recession
warnings in US and Europe * Emerging markets a crowded trade * US job market is
bright * Flash PMIs on Thursday * Snap elections in Spain – shades of Italy?
Key events in
developed markets next week – ING
'Brink
of recession and trade tensions mount' are both phrases we've used time and
time again over the past few months' and next week isn't going to change. The
US and China could be inching closer to a deal, but Trump's threats of European
auto tariffs remains a concern. And with many floating the r-word in the
Eurozone, PMI's will be watched closely
EcoWeek – BNP
PARIBAS
Since
early 2018, based on the purchasing manager indices, a large number of
countries have witnessed a decline in the assessment of new export orders which
was bigger than the decline of the general climate in manufacturing. This
suggests a dominance of foreign demand shocks, rather than domestic shocks, in
explaining slower overall growth. The drop in new export orders echoes the
significant slowdown in world trade growth. This is probably related to slower
Chinese growth and, in many countries, slower growth in capital expenditures,
which have a higher import content than consumption. Trade-related uncertainty
may also play a role.
Week in Focus – Ransquawk
Week Ahead – Nordea
Fear
of auto tariffs may re-ignite as the commerce department will release a report
on national security implications of auto tariffs this weekend. We keep a
defensive outlook, even though we see some (very) early signs of growth relief
ahead.
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank
We
expect euro area manufacturing PMI to decline marginally on the back of weak
new orders and political risk. We will be looking to German Ifo figures for
signs of a rebound, having seen some encouraging signs from the Chinese
economy. * Brexit is moving closer, but as expected, negotiations continue to
drag out. PM Theresa May will continue talks with the EU27 in late February,
when she has also promised a new Brexit vote. * US-China trade talks are set to
continue. President Trump has indicated more flexibility in moving the 1 March
ceasefire deadline and that he expects to meet Xi Jinping in the near future to
close the deal.
Macro Weekly – ABN
AMRO
Retail
sales data were weak raising concerns about the US consumer, one of the few
bright spots in the global economy * We have revised down our eurozone GDP
forecast to take it further below consensus on the weakness in exports and
capital spending. The ECB looks likely to keep policy easy for even longer. Spanish
elections add to European political risk * Chances of a trade truce between the
US and China look to be rising
Weekly Market
Comment
– Marc
Chandler
The
main issues for investors have not changed. There are three dominant ones:
Trade, growth, and Brexit. Unfortunately, there won’t be any closure in the
week ahead, and that may make short-term participants reluctant to turn more
aggressive.
FX weekly: The USD
is now in Trump’s hands – Nordea
The
biggest if for our negative USD tilt is whether Trump will use the report from
the Commerce Department to hike auto tariffs. Higher tariffs risk fuelling
further setbacks, in a time when climate change may already be weighing on
consumption.
Week ahead – FT
Trade,
Fed minutes, Walmart results