8th Nov - When in Rome...

Eyes on Italy for now. Calls for the ECB to do more are increasing, and the policy response of Germany is the thing everyone is really waiting. I just wonder what will be the tipping point for them - in other words, how bad will things get until the end game scenario is chosen.

 

News (Tue morning) – BTH

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

Morning Briefing – BNY Mellon

  (What would a decision by Greece to leave the EUR mean in practical terms?)

FX option vols – Saxo

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Markets Live – alphaville FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

EZ crisis Live blog – The World / FT

EURO CRISIS

Live Blog: Italy in Focus – The Source / WSJ

Italian budget (confidence) vote up next – tradingfloor.com

Italy provides plenty of reasons to be fearful – tradingfloor.com

Germany at Its Rubicon – Testosterone Pit

Germany will either come around and support “saving” the Eurozone, and thus its industrialists and banks, through monetization of debt—and lose part of its soul in the process. Or it will exit the Eurozone in disgust to revert to the Deutsche Mark or to start a smaller monetary union it can control—and lose crucial export markets in the process.

EU members line up to demand ECB intervention – The Guardian

Germany and Merkel under huge pressure to drop veto against European Central Bank rescue

Is financial repression the next step for the eurozone? – Humble Student of The Markets

Perhaps forcing institutions to buy bonds or a raid on bank deposits (a one-off tax of x%)?

CHINA

China inflation: a big fall ahead? – beyondbrics / FT

Expect falls in Chinese inflation – macrobusiness.com

October figures coming out on Wednesday.

OTHER

29 Systemically Dangerous Global Banks – The Big Picture

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) unveiled a range of policy measures to address “systemically important financial institutions” (Sifis). Full report here

Is it cool to be a Sifi? – alphaville / FT

“If we don’t see a reduction in complexity, the measures we have introduced have failed. I have heard some banks saying we want to be in the list of the global Sifis – that is extremely wrong. If a bank wants to be in the list of the global Sifis, we are not doing our job right.”

Equity Theme: Mayday! - Sinking shipping stocks – tradingfloor.com

Low shipping rates below break-even levels, companies losing money. Some stocks are down 80% in past 12 months.

Why Can’t We Produce More Oil? – The Source / WSJ

Both OPEC and IEA publish their long-term forecasts this week.