2nd May - Europe's 'surprise'

Very bad macro from Europe, after yesterday's good number from it looks like we are in for some 'decoupling' for a while. Here are the regular US opening links and some interesting article links. I have changed the regular link outlay: the news-heavy links are first, followed by more market-related stuff. You can get update notifications by following ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with any questions or suggestions.

2nd May - Morning Briefings

Here are the regular morning briefings plus a ECB preview by Danske. You can get update notifications by following ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with any questions or suggestions.

1st May: US "decouples" again

Again some strong numbers from the US. After the talk couple of months ago that the US economy had decoupled from Europe, the optimists were gravely disappointed - I guess this time people will be a little less enthusiastic about the strong numbers. Besides, stock prices have already risen and Europe is not looking hot at all - so I guess after a month or so of "decoupling", US will again revert to the mean. The alternative would be that Europe would suddenly start growing briskly. Somehow I find that a bit hard to swallow.

1st May: Juncker's Mayday

Euro Group’s Juncker announced his resignation, and probably not because he wants to take time off to attend the Mayday techno rave’s after parties. I believe the real reason for the resignation is his disgust at the ongoing planning to recapitalize the Spanish banks. 

As with any recapitalizations, the bill will always be left to the ones not only willing, but also able to pick it up. In this case it means mostly Germany and few other countries, and the probable vehicle will be the ESM – but first the Euro Group must decide how to circumvent the ESM’s rules. I do see the funny side of this: Italian taxpayers bailing out Spanish bankers.

1st May - Morning Briefings

News roundup – Between The Hedges

News roundup – The Trader

Emerging London Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT

Press digests by Reuters: FT, WSJ, NYT

 

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)
China NBS PMI manufacturing rose to 53.3 in April, the highest reading in a year. Weak Chicago PMI ahead of today’s ISM. Jean-Claude Junker steps down as head of Euro Group 

Morning Briefing: Germany’s stance on the EU's fiscal pact risks its isolation – BNYMellon

Capitulation will be untenable for many of Germany’s officials (including Schäuble – see Headlines) and taxpayers – many of whom are aware that the country’s Target II exposure is already tracking an explosive path; and when discussing such issues we should certainly not forget the dark conversations reportedly held between “senior figures in the German establishment” per FT columnist Gideon Rachman’s article earlier last month, entitled the “time bomb no one can defuse”. Whether to commit fully to the EMU project is a question that German must answer and probably sooner than it would like.

Market Preview: Eyes on US ISM Manufacturing Index – Saxo Bank

UK markets are likely to open higher Tuesday ahead of the release of data due today which is expected to indicate that manufacturing in the US probably expanded at a slower pace in April. Markets are also keeping an eye on the UK manufacturing PMI.

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank