2nd May - Europe's 'surprise'

Very bad macro from Europe, after yesterday's good number from it looks like we are in for some 'decoupling' for a while. Here are the regular US opening links and some interesting article links. I have changed the regular link outlay: the news-heavy links are first, followed by more market-related stuff. You can get update notifications by following ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook. Contact me with any questions or suggestions.

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: May 2 – RanSquawk / ZH

Frontrunning: May 2 – ZH

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT

EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Overnight Sentiment: Europe is Open – Bank of America / ZH

Morning MarketBeat: Tension Eases Ahead of Jobs Data – MarketBeat / WSJ

Broker Note Briefing – WSJ

Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT

AM Dear Dairy: Back to full strength – Macro and Cheese

Dollar Recovers, Euro Area PMI Doesn't – Marc to Market

The T Report: Draghi Straits – Money For Nothing – TF Market Advisors

NEW:

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch

Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          

Pre-Market – NASDAQ

US Equity Preview – Bloomberg

Earnings & Events – The Street

MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

EURO CRISIS: GENERAL

4 Ways the Euro Could Fail – TIME

All courses of action appear to lead to an eventual financial crisis of some sort. But moderate progrowth policies are the best bet to minimize the damage

 

The coming revolt against austerity – voxeu.org

Charles Wyplosz: Mindless austerity is losing policy credibility in some Eurozone nations. This column suggests governments shouldn’t mix long-term growth and fiscal discipline nor produce another Lisbon strategy. Instead, they should adopt a framework for fiscal policy cooperation, restructure debts, and remember that fiscal discipline is for the long run.

Austerity and the End of the European Model – Foreign Affairs

How Neoliberals Captured the Continent

Sarkozy to Duel Hollande in Last-Chance Debate for Incumbent – BB

EURO CRISIS: MACRO DATA

Press Release: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI final data – markit

Manufacturing downturn deepens as weakness spreads across euro area

Core infection and eurozone PMIs – alphaville / FT
Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers indices are out and it does not look pretty. The final Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI hit a 34-month low of 45.9 in April, well below the flash estimate of 46, as job losses accelerated to their fastest rate in over two years.

Eurosis Is Back With A Bang: PMIs Collapse, Unemployment Surges To Record – ZH

Euro Area Unemployment Hits Record High – TIME

ASSET CLASS VIEWS

Stay long USD assets – Humble Student of The Markets

The current macro outlook is highly uncertain, suggesting that the near-term path for equities will be choppy and volatile. The charts are showing continued leadership by US equities and the US Dollar.

What is Up with the Yen and Why it may Not Last – Marc to Market

Got an Edge? – Bruce Krasting

The 1st Q reserve numbers for the Swiss National Bank tell an interesting story. For a second quarter in a row, the foreign reserves have declined. There is only one way that this could have happened; the SNB offloaded a portion of the EURCHF position it took on back in September of 2011 when it was forced to intervene.

Is curve alpha being arbitraged away? – alphaville / FT

Investors looking for commodity exposure through fund offerings usually have one of two basic choices. They can opt for pure long strategies via funds which take positions in the underlying physical commodities or which perpetually roll the same position over and over in the futures market, or they can opt for so-called ‘curve placement alpha’ strategies.

Why China’s commodities demand is different – alphaville / FT

…we can be pretty sure that China is moving away from its unusually capital-intensive economy towards a more balanced, consumption-heavy economy. If it’s not happening already, it will happen. China’s consumption is a lower percentage of GDP than any of the comparison countries above.

OTHER

Take the plunge? Set the micro-economy free – Saxo Bank

Steen Jakobsen: We continue to throw liquidity at solvency issues…we continue to crowd out private capital for public capital… the mean-reversion of expectations also continues

After the bonfire of the verities – Martin Wolf / FT

What is the future of central banks? It will be busy, because they are now expected to deliver both monetary and financial stability. It will be controversial, because the decisions they make have a huge impact on the distribution of income, people’s access to finance, the way the financial system operates and even the solvency of governments.

Martin Wolf’s liquidity traps and free lunches through fiscal expansion – EconoMonitor

L. Randall Wray: A fiscal expansion can very well affect both the domestic private balance and the foreign balance in such a manner that the government’s balance moves away from deficit and toward surplus (think Clinton years). But the relations are complex and will depend on country-specific circumstances.